There is no way Ford has more than 20% of the vote come election day. That's being generous. And there is no way that he gains an appreciable number of supporters between now and then. Even if you bump up Socks and Stintz to 20% total, Chow and Tory have 60% to fight between, with 30% being the lowest possible. I would even say Socks has a better chance of winning than RoFo, as outside a shot as either of them are.
I also think if it looks like Ford has a serious shot closer to the election, Socks will bow out. There is no way he will let Ford get away with that, he is much too smart and principled for that.
I agree that massive vote splitting benefits RoFo, but Stintz is not going anywhere. In a 4 way split of 95% of the vote, someone needs more than 24%. That is not possible for Ford, not to mention Tory and Chow would both have to drop to below 23%, which is also not going to happen.