Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[muller877]

That 61,600 count only includes the trips that involve a subway ride. Bus-to-bus transfers and walk-in to bus are not included. I doubt that those extra trips can account for 8,400 per day, to reach the total of 70,000. But they might account for 3,000 to 5,000 per day (just guessing).

Of course, non-subway trips are irrelevant if we are talking about the subway ridership only. However, non-subway trips become relevant if we want to compare the SSE station projections to the TTC stats for the existing stations. The latter almost certainly include all trips via the given station, not just subway trips.

I think we can all agree that this is misleading....the question is how to get to accurate numbers.
http://www.scarboroughsubwayextension.ca/assets/july-2016-scarborough-subway-extension-ridership.pdf

Kipling is going to show a surge in ridership in the next 3 years (or so) when the new bus terminal opens. There are a lot of trips that currently go to Islington that will now terminate at Kipling.

Right now Islington has 37,000/day and Kipling has 52,000 per day (2015 numbers). In 2007 (latest numbers I have) there were 10,000 riders per day from MiWay going to Islington (and only 500 had it as their final destination). Plus TTC routes.

So in 3 years Islington will have 27,500 riders and Kipling will have 62,000 riders assuming no growth and no TTC route changes.

Line 2 Kennedy has 70,000. 35,000 get on the SRT and 25,000 get off at STC. If no riders at Kennedy walk (conservative assumption) AND the new bus routes terminate 25-75 at Kennedy and STC the new ridership will be 44,000 at Kennedy and 51,000 at STC. Adding growth for 10 years I can see how they came up with 62,000 per day (31,ooo boardings).

However, Kipling is 100% wrong. They did not factor in any growth or changes in the west end. Kipling will be identical to STC assuming no growth (and of course we have local growth in Toronto along Dundas plus the Dundas RT corridor in Mississauga plus overall growth in Mississauga.

 

[syn]

Yes. So presumably about 26,000 boardings.

? Says it goes up to 27,100. Or about 54,200 rider using the station compared to your 52,000 now.

Odd though there's no increase though ... could be a few things. The model might not know about to move a lot of the Islington buses to Kipling.

The model might have RER-like service on the Milton Line by 2031, which would encourage many from Kipling to take the RER to Dundas West or Union. Or who knows, Liberty Village station on the Downtown line.

Very odd, which is why I question where these numbers came from.

No growth for Kipling, yet a massive jump for STC? Doesn't make much sense at all.

Agreed. I also thought it was interesting that Councillor de Baeremaeker once again cast the debate in terms of downtown vs. Scarborough identity politics instead of by-the-numbers transit planning with some regard for costs and benefits.

I thought it was embarrassing. Now that populists like the Ford's opened up Pandora's box, there'll be no pleasing the many of citizens of Scarborough. Once one subway stop is built, they'll be complaining that it isn't enough, especially when they had to go through all the trouble that comes with it's construction.

That's the problem with building infrastructure based on irrational wants and insecurity rather than facts. It's like any other novelty - once the initial thrill wears off, the demands will come for more, since they 'deserve' what downtown has.

 

[Sakraycore]

I thought it was embarrassing. Now that populists like the Ford's opened up Pandora's box, there'll be no pleasing the many of citizens of Scarborough. Once one subway stop is built, they'll be complaining that it isn't enough, especially when they had to go through all the trouble that comes with it's construction.

Good Assumption. This is what SSE backers are hoping for, and what downtown people are afraid of...

While the 1 station represents a good step forward, it is far from enough.

 

[ShonTron]

Once again...the Star and reporter @JENNIFER PAGLIARO. What a joke. No actual news contained inside.

This is exactly the kind of comment that has plagued this thread. Not debating the merits of the subway extension, not discussing updates, but one line attacks and nonfactual statements, repeating the same talking points.

 

[salsa]

This is exactly the kind of comment that has plagued this thread. Not debating the merits of the subway extension, not discussing updates, but one line attacks and nonfactual statements, repeating the same talking points.

I've been avoiding this thread for the past several weeks, which somehow still remains active every single day for no real reason. Needless to say, I didn't miss much.

 

[salsa]

Urban Toronto has a front page article summarizing yesterday's public meeting and the latest subway plans. It's worth a read.

http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2017/05/scarborough-residents-frustrated-subway-plans

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Most important takeaway for me was that if Lawrence East Station isn't built now, it can't be built without shutting down the extension for a 2 year period. This knowledge should kill any hopes people had that this Lawrence east could be built at a later date.

 

[Hopkins123]

Most important takeaway for me was that if Lawrence East Station isn't built now, it can't be built without shutting down the extension for a 2 year period. This knowledge should kill any hopes people had that this Lawrence east could be built at a later date.

Hence why both Lawrence East and the Brimley-Eglinton station urgently need to be added in now!

What difference in the end does it really make to add a couple billion dollars to the project to get a solution for all of Scarborough? People will be screaming it's too much money regardless how much or how little is spent. City building doesn't come cheap, folks.

A single phase from Kennedy Stn to Morningside Heights would make all of Scarborough within 20 minutes of a subway stop. It may not be this term but hopefully by the election cycles another $5 billion materializes for an 8-stop extension with whatever left utilized for Crosstown East to UTSC.

 

[Steve X]

STC Station is to be the deepest station in TO. That means it would take like 5 minutes just to get from the surface to the platform. Even longer from STC (the mall) as it's further away. All the time saving is thus gone. Can we all agree that this is stupid?

 

[Amare]

Most important takeaway for me was that if Lawrence East Station isn't built now, it can't be built without shutting down the extension for a 2 year period. This knowledge should kill any hopes people had that this Lawrence east could be built at a later date.

A very important takeaway indeed. If it isnt built now, it will never be built.

The way politicians act in this city, there's no way a 2+ year shutdown of a subway would be tolerated to add an infill station in the future. If it isnt built now, chances are we'll have a 1 stop express subway for the rest of our lifetimes and if any politician tries to spin that fact they're blatantly lying.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Hence why both Lawrence East and the Brimley-Eglinton station urgently need to be added in now!

What difference in the end does it really make to add a couple billion dollars to the project to get a solution for all of Scarborough? People will be screaming it's too much money regardless how much or how little is spent. City building doesn't come cheap, folks.

A single phase from Kennedy Stn to Morningside Heights would make all of Scarborough within 20 minutes of a subway stop. It may not be this term but hopefully by the election cycles another $5 billion materializes for an 8-stop extension with whatever left utilized for Crosstown East to UTSC.

I'd be more inclined to support this extension if it had three or four stops, even if it came at a slightly increased cost. However that's not a realistic political expectation in this environment.

 

[ShonTron]

I'd be more inclined to support this extension if it had three or four stops, even if it came at a slightly increased cost. However that's not a realistic political expectation in this environment.

If John Tory came out and said that the Scarborough Subway debate was past, that he would focus on building that, and the Relief Line, I wouldn't be happy, but I could respect it. But by holding on to SmartTrack, requiring the one-stop gerrymandered subway (the Lawrence stop cut to save funds and to force riders over to ST), Tory's stubbornness has really screwed Scarborough.

 

[Steve X]

I'd be more inclined to support this extension if it had three or four stops, even if it came at a slightly increased cost. However that's not a realistic political expectation in this environment.

I rather see them build it right the first time. If they build it to Sheppard, then it would render half the bus bays at STC useless. This line won't extension to Sheppard in the next 30 years to justify the cost of that gigantic bus terminal was spent wisely.

 

[Hopkins123]

I rather see them build it right the first time. If they build it to Sheppard, then it would render half the bus bays at STC useless. This line won't extension to Sheppard in the next 30 years to justify the cost of that gigantic bus terminal was spent wisely.

Let's remember too, that they are already planning on abandoning the preexisting massive bus terminal at STC in favour of this new one.

Posits a 8-stop subway extension to Malvern is proposed and gets preferred funding. Most of the bus routes wouldn't start or end where they do today. It's be more like this:

Kennedy - 43, 57, 113, 20
Brimley - 21, 12, 16, 116
McCowan (Lawrence East) - 16, 54, new route 86 doing both the Orton Pk and Beechgrove Loops
Scarborough Centre - 16, 43B, 129, 130, 131, 132, 165, 38, 133, 95S
Bellamy - 9, 134
Markham - 102, 134
Burrows Hall - 190, 85, 134
Malvern Town Centre - 131, 132, 133
Morningside Heights - 116, 86, 39, 199, 53, 131, 133, 42

So while STC would still be the busiest with 10 routes serving it; redistributing many of the routes to elsewhere helps to makes the extension as a whole more viable and worthwhile.

 

[syn]

If John Tory came out and said that the Scarborough Subway debate was past, that he would focus on building that, and the Relief Line, I wouldn't be happy, but I could respect it. But by holding on to SmartTrack, requiring the one-stop gerrymandered subway (the Lawrence stop cut to save funds and to force riders over to ST), Tory's stubbornness has really screwed Scarborough.

He probably could've got a far better result going with an LRT and expanded ST plan - if that was even possible.

Too many conflicting plans with the limited funding available - now his credibility is damaged when it comes to other transit projects.

Trying to be everything to everyone ultimately leads to getting very little done.