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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Some interesting predictions here- definitely agree with the pacing of the minimum wage hike. $15 minimum wage should be phased in slower, whereas the fast-tracking should be reserved for improving job stability and worker rights (stopping companies like Fiera Foods from taking advantage of temp workers). If $15 in 2019 is a must, I would probably implement it in Toronto first, with a longer roll-out throughout the rest of the province.

Also entirely agree with the differentiated minimum wage hikes across the province- which I've been arguing for. There are different economic speeds across the province, and minimum wage should reflect that. $15 will have a disproportionate impact in Timmins or Windsor, where the circulation of capital is slower, compared to Toronto.

Finally- a bit of irony in the recommendation for depoliticalization- minimum wage was previously tied to inflation (with a review every four years) before this. I suppose the 2018 elections need to be won one way or another.

It's really disconcerting to see the prediction that 30 percent of all workers will be making minimum wage as it means that the floor rose without any other wage increases in response- hopefully other wages will rise over time.

Too-Fast Minimum Wage Hike Will Cost Ontario 90,000 Jobs: TD Bank
The benefits of a higher minimum wage would be muted if the hike comes on too fast, report argues.
Click to expand...

Economists Derek Burleton, Michael Dolega and Dina Ignjatovic don't argue against the hike; in fact, they say it "can potentially generate more benefits to society than costs in terms of any resulting job loss."

But it's the speed at which Ontario plans to hike wages that is worrying the authors.
Click to expand...
They noted that Alberta is also planning to hike its minimum wage to $15 in a short period of time, but Alberta's higher wages mean the province will be less impacted than Ontario by the move.

Ontario already has the highest rate of minimum wage workers in Canada, at more than 11 per cent of all workers. The TD Bank reports this will rise sharply to around 30 per cent of all workers after the hike.
Click to expand...
The report noted there will be a "positive household income effect" from the minimum wage, but businesses will be facing higher costs, and will look to offset that by hiring fewer workers, cutting some jobs and increasing the use of automation.

The net effect will be that the province will have 80,000 to 90,000 fewer jobs than it otherwise would have by 2020, the TD Bank report predicted.

The report also predicts inflation will be 0.3 percentage points higher than it would have been, thanks to higher incomes and businesses passing on higher costs to consumers.
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An earlier report from Ontario's Financial Accountability Office estimated the wage hike would cost the province around 50,000 jobs. But the TD Bank estimate offers a higher number, because it expects Ontario's economy to slow down, particularly the housing sector.

"What's more, the hikes will coincide with other cost pressures, including rising interest rates, higher CPP premiums, carbon pricing and elevated electricity costs," the report noted.
Click to expand...
The TD economists are urging the government to delay implementation of the $15 minimum wage by at least two years, to 2021.

The report also suggests creating "differentiated minimum wage rates" for different cities. For instance, while $15 an hour would be appropriate for Toronto, $11 or $12 an hour would be more appropriate for less expensive cities like Windsor.

Finally, the report urges the province to consider creating "a process that depoliticizes the setting of the [minimum wage] rate."
Click to expand...

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/0...-cost-ontario-90-000-jobs-td-bank_a_23223521/
 
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jje1000 said:
Some interesting predictions here- definitely agree with the pacing of the minimum wage hike. $15 minimum wage should be phased in slower, whereas the fast-tracking should be reserved for improving job stability and worker rights (stopping companies like Fiera Foods from taking advantage of temp workers). If $15 in 2019 is a must, I would probably implement it in Toronto first, with a longer roll-out throughout the rest of the province.

Also entirely agree with the differentiated minimum wage hikes across the province- which I've been arguing for. There are different economic speeds across the province, and minimum wage should reflect that. $15 will have a disproportionate impact in Timmins or Windsor, where the circulation of capital is slower, compared to Toronto.

Finally- a bit of irony in the recommendation for depoliticalization- minimum wage was previously tied to inflation (with a review every four years) before this. I suppose the 2018 elections need to be won one way or another.

It's really disconcerting to see the prediction that 30 percent of all workers will be making minimum wage as it means that the floor rose without any other wage increases in response- hopefully other wages will rise over time.









http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/0...-cost-ontario-90-000-jobs-td-bank_a_23223521/
Click to expand...

Alas, I think that the minimum wage increase is a winning strategy on the Liberals' part. It's a direct page out of the NDP's playbook so it will work to siphon votes away from their base only to strengthen the Liberals. 10% of the total working population in Ontario subsists on minimum wage and likely a further 10-20% of workers make between $11.40- $15 an hour. These are almost locked in votes for Wynne. And if all else fails and mass lay offs are to come as a result of the increase, a guaranteed universal basic income is on the horizon. Another NDP steal (and we wonder why Brown is keeping things close to the vest?).

The time may indeed be ripe for change and renewal, but we've seen victory snatched from the jaws of defeat before with the PCs so I'm not getting my hopes up.
 
Wow, I hadn't realised there was so much angst in the PC party:

Is Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown truly in 'a war' with his own party?

If I understand correctly, it's the right-wing of the party that is schisming ... which seems odd under a right-wing leader. And if you right of Brown, how do you vote NDP?

In without hearing this, I've been starting to wonder if Wynne can pull it off with the rising polling, and with the Liberals taking away the key issue of hydro prices. And then seeing my car insurance is unchanged again.
 
nfitz said:
Wow, I hadn't realised there was so much angst in the PC party:

Is Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown truly in 'a war' with his own party?

If I understand correctly, it's the right-wing of the party that is schisming ... which seems odd under a right-wing leader. And if you right of Brown, how do you vote NDP?

In without hearing this, I've been starting to wonder if Wynne can pull it off with the rising polling, and with the Liberals taking away the key issue of hydro prices. And then seeing my car insurance is unchanged again.
Click to expand...

No doubt there are schisms in the PC party between different branches of the Cons (as a result of our first-past-the-post system)- the largest and most problematic rifts are with the SoCons. More Sam Oosterhoffs would seriously hinder the PC's abilities to reach into metropolitan areas- so I think Brown's trying to control that there with his picks for ridings, and naturally people will be pissed.

That being said, I think we'll need to see the PC platform to see which side has won- and if the PCs are a write-off again.



Also in recent news:
A $270-million energy conservation program that allowed utilities in Ontario to remotely access home thermostats and scale back power usage during peak demand times is coming to an end Saturday, having been activated only 21 times in a decade.
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/peaksaver-program-rarely-used-1.4311977
 
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The provincial Liberals are great campaigners and this probably represents their nadir. I think the election could go any number of ways, and most likely a PC minority or majority, but the Liberals will do better than 22% on election day.
 
Ottawan said:
The provincial Liberals are great campaigners and this probably represents their nadir. I think the election could go any number of ways, and most likely a PC minority or majority, but the Liberals will do better than 22% on election day.
Click to expand...
That's true, the Liberals are excellent politicians* and can never be counted out.

* - the definition of politician is of course someone who lies, cheat, steals and deceives and uses every trick from semi-illegal to unethical in order to win, with no regard for what's best for the people.
 
People are parking votes with NDP and Greens. Once we see the PC plan, I doubt they will have over 40% support. I’m hoping PC wins a minority at best. It is time to clean up government and change. NDP Ontario has no policies that Liberals haven’t already rebranded as their own.
 
Leaked Document Shows Ontario Government Is Ignoring Its Own Advice On Weed
It appears one branch of the government has as many issues with the policy as we do.
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A 20-page document obtained by VICE shows the Ontario government's framework to sell legal weed contradicts what its own Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services is saying about enforcement and the black market.
Click to expand...

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/...government-is-ignoring-its-own-advice-on-weed
 
My prediction is that the Liberals lose their luck and finally fold. They won in 2007, 2011 and 2014 against the odds, but largely due to inept campaigns by the PCs. I think this time will be different. Brown’s unusual journey to the PC helm shows that he cannot be underestimated. He is clearly committed to pushing the social cons and libertarians to the sidelines in order to make the party more ‘broad’ and centrist. I think the average Ontario doesn't care about inside political baseball like riding association scuffles when they perceive (rightly or wrongly) that their bills are going up, their cost of living is increasing, and their children are encountering a precarious job market.

By next year it will be 15 years of Liberal Ontario rule, that is more than the Rae Era + Common Sense Revolution combined. I'm sensing a lot of "Wynne/Ontario Liberal fatigue," and not just among the usual suspects - the tabloids and talk radio - but among their natural constituencies, like the urban chattering classes.
 
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