2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[Videodrome]

CP24‏Verified account@CP24 1h1 hour ago
Minister of Economic Development Brad Duguid has announced that he will not stand for re-election in 2018.

My MPP isn't running for re-election. He must have seen some bad polls.

 

[christiesplits]

To get back on topic, things aren't looking great for the Liberals in this recent poll:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2779/ontario-horserace-august-2017/

Considering how the past elections have gone, I'm not yet putting it past Brown to screw things up.

Forum has the NDP leading in Toronto?!? I'm very surprised by this... Toronto has always been cool towards Horwath.

 

[jje1000]

Not sure if this will help or hurt the Liberals, but free-market folk will certainly not be pleased, seeing this as a continued extension of the LCBO and government overreach:

Ontario unveils pot plan including online ordering, 150 stand-alone stores
Proposed minimum age to use recreational cannabis in Ontario will be 19

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/province-cannabis-plan-1.4280484
http://tvo.org/article/current-affa...rals-roll-out-rules-for-rolling-up-in-ontario

Some partially good news on the unemployment front- however, a lot of the growth came from part-time work, with a drop in full-time employment- I wonder how much came from summer student employment?

Ontario drives Canada’s jobs gains in August, unemployment lowest in 9 years
http://globalnews.ca/news/3727591/ontario-jobs-canada-unemployment/
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170908/t003a-eng.htm

The closely watched manufacturing sector, for example, lost another 11,000 jobs during the month.

"While very solid on the surface, the details of this report are generally sluggish," Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter said, pointing out that the total number of hours worked dipped by 0.1 per cent in August compared to July, despite the surge of new workers.

That could be a sign that the amount of paid work in the economy is about the same, just being spread across a wider number of part timers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-august-1.4280446

 

[jje1000]

Again- a lot of politically beneficial short-term moves for the Liberals.

Ontario's pot plan a blow to dispensaries, but a boon for the public-service union
The president of the public sector union expects the sale of recreational marijuana to create about 2,000 new public sector jobs in Ontario in the next three or four years

Ontario’s plan to control the sale of marijuana through 150 government-run stores and an online service may be bad news for the province’s illegal dispensaries, but it’s a win for Ontario’s public-sector union, which lobbied hard for government control of the market.

“I’m pretty pleased with what the plan looks like so far,” said Warren (Smokey) Thomas, president of the Ontario Public Service Employees Union. “I’ve been lobbying the government for a long time on this, so I like to think we had some influence.”

Ottawa lawyer Trina Fraser said the government’s decision illustrates the power of the union and Thomas, who’s been arguing that the LCBO has the proper expertise to manage the sale of recreational marijuana.

“He’s been spreading that message wide and far,” she said. “I have to believe that’s had some influence over the decision.”

But Fraser also thinks the decision not to legalize private retailers was the easiest path to take politically. Private sales would require a new branch of the bureaucracy to manage dispensary applications, inspections and compliance, she said. “It’s not frankly what I was hoping for, but I’m not surprised.”

Fraser said the Atlantic provinces and Quebec will likely adopt similar plans to Ontario’s, while the Western provinces are more likely to legalize private dispensaries. In B.C., where the City of Vancouver has already moved to regulate the stores instead of shutting them down, “there seems to have almost been an acceptance that dispensaries are part of our future,” she said.

Still, Ontario’s decision not to include the private sector in its plans raises questions about the province’s capacity to supply the full demand for recreational marijuana.

Aaron Salz, founder of cannabis consulting firm Stoic Advisory, said the decision “will only serve to bolster the black market,” since the 40 stores planned for next July won’t come close to meeting the demand. On Friday, Sousa estimated there are 70 or 80 dispensaries in Toronto alone.

Sousa said Ontario will fight illegal pot shops partly by placing government-run stores close to existing dispensaries to steer traffic away from them. The province will also continue efforts to shut them down.

Marijuana will be sold behind the counter at government stores, he said, without a self-serve option. It will not be sold in government liquor stores, and the legal age will be 19 in Ontario, as it is for alcohol. Naqvi and Sousa would not comment on how much the system will cost to set up, how legal marijuana will be priced, or how much revenue the sale is expected to generate for the province.

http://nationalpost.com/g00/news/politics/ontarios-pot-plan-a-blow-to-dispensaries-but-a-boon-for-the-public-service-union?i10c.referrer=http://nationalpost.com[/QUOTE]

 

[Videodrome]

http://www.cp24.com/news/caroline-mulroney-named-pc-candidate-for-york-simcoe-1.3583629

People might remember the last name.

 

[ShonTron]

http://www.cp24.com/news/caroline-mulroney-named-pc-candidate-for-york-simcoe-1.3583629

People might remember the last name.

Any riding with the name "Simcoe" in it will never vote anyone in unless it's a Conservative. That's a a fact. Interesting that a "star" candidate is picked to run in one of the OPCs' safest seats.

 

[jje1000]

Something everyone knows by now- jobs are being made in Ontario- but many aren't high quality jobs- this loss in income compounded with the higher costs of living (auto insurance, electricity, housing, etc.) is a huge issue that's leading to the decline of many Ontario towns and the Toronto peripheries:

Canadian incomes jump but Ontario residents hit by manufacturing downturn: Statistics Canada
Ontario bucks national trend with sluggish income growth and more low-income households, census data shows.

But the story is not so rosy in Ontario, where the downturn in the manufacturing sector slowed income growth and the proportion of low-income residents has been on the rise.

The median income in Ontario was $74,287 in 2015, up just 3.8 per cent over the last decade, the slowest growth of any province or territory over the last decade.

That’s attributed to the gutting of the manufacturing sector and the loss of 318,000 jobs, down 30 per cent over the last decade,

Almost every metropolitan centre in Ontario saw below average income growth, compared to the booming Prairies, where incomes rose above average. The Greater Toronto Area had a median income of $78,373 in 2015, up 3.3 per cent. In the GTA, Oakville had the highest median income at $113,666. The City of Toronto had the lowest at $65,829.

The last decade has also seen a rise in low-income rates in Ontario’s urban centres, led by London (17 per cent, up from 13 per cent) and Windsor (17.5 per cent, from 14 per cent).

In 2015, 14.4 per cent of Ontario residents — some 1.9 million people — were low income, up from 12.9 per cent in 2005.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada...manufacturing-downturn-statistics-canada.html
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/re...36242392/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&



Also interesting coming from the Province's own watchdog- again, short-term electoral gains, long-term...?

Ontario minimum-wage hike could cost more than 50,000 jobs: watchdog

More than 50,000 people could lose their jobs if the Ontario government goes ahead with its plan to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2019, the province's financial watchdog said Tuesday in a report that assessed the economic impact of the proposed increase.

The job losses would be concentrated among teens and young adults, while the number of minimum wage workers in Ontario would increase from just over 500,000 to 1.6 million in 2019, the Financial Accountability Office said in its report. FAO chief economist David West said the province is entering "uncharted waters" with the increase because no other jurisdiction has gone so far so quickly.

While the move will have a positive impact on the province's total labour market income – hiking it by 1.3 per cent – it will also result in job losses over a number of years.

West said that while the FAO report makes no recommendations about the proposed policy, it does raise red flags for legislators. The report specifically cites the speed with which Ontario will phase in the change as a concern for business, he said.

"It would be wrong to suggest that there won't be some employment impact," he said. "Some businesses will certainly struggle to accommodate these higher payroll costs and will of course look at options for automation, and will look at hiring higher paid, higher productivity workers perhaps. But one way or the other, they're going to have to adjust."

Asked how businesses could prepare, (Labour Minister Kevin) Flynn suggested they will have to find ways to absorb the increase.

"Well, I think they could look at pricing, obviously that's one thing that obviously any business would do," he said.

Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown said those comments can only mean one thing; the government expects businesses will pass on the wage increase to consumers.

"It just shows how out of touch this government is," Brown said. "They think you can just raise the prices on everything. Families are struggling right now to afford their hydro bills."

Brown said he supports the minimum wage increase but would like to see it phased in over a longer period of time.

NDP leader Andrea Horwath said the Liberal government rushed its plan without helping prepare small business. If it had started this transition years ago it could have mitigated the impact, she said.

"That's what happens when the Liberals do things for political purposes ... and (are) trying to get a bump in the polls," she said.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/ne...36235499/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

 

[Videodrome]

Robert Benzie‏Verified account@robertbenzie 11h11 hours ago
Approval/disapproval/don't know:
@AndreaHorwath 37/19/43
@brownbarrie 28/22/50
@Kathleen_Wynne 19/67/14
#onpoli

I get that people don't like Wynne and most people don't know who Patrick Brown is, but after eight years and two elections, how can you not know who Andrea Horwath is?

 

[lead82]

Most people would vote for none of the above. All the Ontario party leaders are awful. Wynne, Brown and Horwath should resign. Horwath should have been removed after the last election. She hasn't done a great job for the NDP and has lost voter share. The NDP are there only as a spoiler party. They don hold balance of power anymore. I believe Brown will win in 2018. The hope is that not to a majority. A minority government is the best hope Ontario has.

 

[adma]

She hasn't done a great job for the NDP and has lost voter share.

Actually, she gained share in each of the elections she stood as leader. It's just that the Toronto losses in 2014, especially, stole the picture.

 

[jje1000]

Handing out money for free harder than it looks
Ontario began issuing basic income cheques in July, but reaching eligible participants has been a challenge.

About 28,000 residents in the Hamilton-Brantford and Thunder Bay areas have received 40-page application packages in the mail since Premier Kathleen Wynne launched the three-year initiative in late April. Recruitment in Lindsay, the third trial site, begins later this fall.

The pilot is expected to cost $50 million a year and help the government determine whether a less intrusive and more trusting approach to delivering income support improves health, education and housing outcomes for low-income workers and people on welfare. The government also wants to see if providing an income floor below which nobody can fall improves job prospects for those living on low incomes.

But so far, the randomized weekly mail-outs have resulted in relatively few applications and even fewer cheques in the hands of low-income Ontarians.

Based on feedback from public information meetings over the summer, many of the packages landed in the mailboxes of people who aren’t eligible, either because they are too old or earning too much money.

The government won’t say how many have signed up or how many cheques were issued in July and August. But community agencies partnering with the government to raise awareness and help potential participants apply, say few low-income people with application forms have come forward for assistance.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...-out-money-for-free-harder-than-it-looks.html

 

[M636RF]

Also interesting coming from the Province's own watchdog- again, short-term electoral gains, long-term...?





https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/ne...36235499/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

Well this doesn't suprise me at all. Several US cities that have raised their minimum wages are loosing low skilled jobs. Companies will either pass the costs of higher wages on to consumers, or reduce their payrolls. I've been to several McDonald's locations around this province that have installed touchscreens for placing orders. Automation continues to take over some jobs. While I don't like to see underpaid workers, politicians need to realize that companies are only willing to pay so much for certain jobs. When their employment related expenses rise too much, they will find ways to cut back or compensate.

 

[ADRM]

Several US cities that have raised their minimum wages are loosing low skilled jobs.

Which ones?

 

[M636RF]

Which ones?

A University of Washington study on Seattle's minimum wage increase comes to mind. There are others too, which you can look up yourself.

Part of the reason why there's some concern about Ontario is that it's a vast province, not just a city. Employers in smaller cities, towns, and rural areas can't always afford to pay as much as those in the GTA, and besides, the costs of living are usually less out there anyway. If the Liberals really want to raise the minimum wage, they should just do it in big cities where the effects on employment won't be as severe.

 

[Northern Light]

A University of Washington study on Seattle's minimum wage increase comes to mind. There are others too, which you can look up yourself.

Part of the reason why there's some concern about Ontario is that it's a vast province, not just a city. Employers in smaller cities, towns, and rural areas can't always afford to pay as much as those in the GTA, and besides, the costs of living are usually less out there anyway. If the Liberals really want to raise the minimum wage, they should just do it in big cities where the effects on employment won't be as severe.

The University of Washington Study, which I've read, doesn't actually say that.

It suggested that there was a reduction in hours worked, after the increase. (not in employment)

However.......in one of the more glaring oversights I've seen in academic studies and I've seen a few in my day............the study included Q4 employment numbers from the preceding year when examining (principally) retail employment then included only Q1 for the subsequent year.

As everyone should know, retail employment peaks in Q4 and troughs in Q1. (Christmas seasonal staff)

That makes the result profoundly unreliable.

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Also worth noting was that a competing study from California (both examining the situation in Washington State) which looked only at the restaurant/fast food sector found no such decline.

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Let me add that unemployment in Washington remains near record lows, while labour force participation remains at record highs and well above the U.S. national rate.


****

I'm not going to suggest that there won't be further automation in some sectors, I would suggest that's a given.

However, I don't believe any studies currently support the notion that there is NET displacement following an increase.

I grant that this increase will be more rapid than most.

That may result in differing impacts here; though I think any prediction of the sky falling is rather premature at best.