2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[jje1000]

Liberals attempting to drag social issues into the election? Not unexpected- the two months delay would place this right at the start of the election.

Again, another instance of naked politicking that seems to be less about protecting women's rights than it is a trap for the PCs- one that Brown would be wise to sidestep (and also keep his SoCon wing in line).

Abortion politics at play between Ontario Liberals, PCs
As Wynne Liberals propose 'safe zones' around abortion clinics, PC leader Patrick Brown says he's 'pro-choice'

Premier Kathleen Wynne's Liberals are showing all the signs they'd like abortion to become an election issue in Ontario, in hopes of tagging the Progressive Conservatives as anti-choice.

The Liberals deny they are deliberately trying to stir the pot, insisting that they are only motivated by the desire to protect a woman's right to choose and to prevent harassment around abortion clinics.

But it's clear from their messaging they are aiming to raise voters' doubts about PC leader Patrick Brown's stance on abortion, or at least create a pro-choice versus pro-life rift in his party, with election day (June 7) just eight months away.

The political manoeuvring was laid bare Thursday when the Liberals stopped the Legislature from immediately passing their own bill to create "safe zones" around abortion clinics.

The legislation, introduced Wednesday, would prohibit people from engaging in many types of protest tactics near clinics, such as showing anti-abortion signs or trying to dissuade women from having an abortion.

Liberal politicians said they refused to fast-track the bill because they want to give interest groups the chance to look closely at the legislation during committee hearings. Critics are questioning whether that's truly the motive, or whether the Liberals are merely trying to gain maximum political benefit by dragging out the passage of the law.

It's to the Liberals' political advantage to keep the abortion clinic safe zone bill grinding through the Legislature, said political scientist Paul Thomas of Carleton University.

Once pro-life forces start mobilizing against the bill by presenting petitions or holding demonstrations, "I think it will become increasingly challenging for members of the Conservative caucus to support it," Thomas said.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/abortion-clinic-safe-zones-kathleen-wynne-politics-1.4340196

 

[Juan_Lennon416]

My prediction is that the Liberals lose their luck and finally fold. They won in 2007, 2011 and 2014 against the odds, but largely due to inept campaigns by the PCs. I think this time will be different. Brown’s unusual journey to the PC helm shows that he cannot be underestimated. He is clearly committed to pushing the social cons and libertarians to the sidelines in order to make the party more ‘broad’ and centrist. I think the average Ontario doesn't care about inside political baseball like riding association scuffles when they perceive (rightly or wrongly) that their bills are going up, their cost of living is increasing, and their children are encountering a precarious job market.

By next year it will be 15 years of Liberal Ontario rule, that is more than the Rae Era + Common Sense Revolution combined. I'm sensing a lot of "Wynne/Ontario Liberal fatigue," and not just among the usual suspects - the tabloids and talk radio - but among their natural constituencies, like the urban chattering classes.

I am not confident in the '4 Dumb 6' giving the NDP a try (even if it is a minority government)

 

[Hopkins123]

Rob Ferguson‏Verified account@robferguson19m9 minutes ago
BREAKING, PART 2: Deputy Premier @Deb_Matthews joins Liz Sandals in saying she won't run in next year's election. #onpoli
ob Ferguson‏Verified account@robferguson115m15 minutes ago
BREAKING: Veteran cab min and Liberal MPP Liz Sandals won't run in 2018 election, says it's time to retire. #onpoli

As expected.

Kind of like all the Harper defections and resignations leading up to the 2015 Federal election. The Liberals' internal polling must be signaling to them omens of doom.

 

[jje1000]

Hints of Harperism?

Meet the Harper veterans who could help Patrick Brown become the next premier
With an eye toward toppling Premier Kathleen Wynne in the next provincial election, the Tory leader has quietly been assembling a talented team that includes many Stephen Harper Tories.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...browns-big-tent-includes-harper-veterans.html

 

[jje1000]

The Liberals continue to double down on social justice on the road leading to the 2018 elections:

Bill would protect against discrimination based on genetics, immigration status and police records
Liberal legislator Nathalie Des Rosiers says the proposed bill would ensure that people have fair access to employment, insurance and goods and services.

Discriminating against someone on the basis of their genetics, immigration status, social condition and police records would be a violation of their rights in Ontario under a proposed bill introduced in the provincial legislature.

Des Rosiers said the changes would bring Ontario’s Human Rights Code in line with other codes across Canada and around the world. It would also ensure that people have fair access to employment, insurance and goods and services.

Des Rosiers said discrimination based on social condition, like poverty, homelessness or lack of education, is prevalent. Her bill will combat negative stereotyping and help people living in poverty access essential services, she said.

“We know that poor people are often treated differently,” she said. “(They’re) told to move out of certain stores, of malls or offices, for no good reason.”

Des Rosiers said immigrants to Ontario also face discrimination, often when attempting to find housing where immigration status should be irrelevant.

“We have heard of landlords refusing to rent to refugee claimants and of public services requiring various proofs of permanent residency, citizenship or immigration status in order to determine eligibility or to offer a service,” she said.

Mike Colle, also a Liberal legislator, said he supports Des Rosiers’ bill and its measures to fight genetic discrimination. Colle has made previous attempts to pass private member’s bills to end the practice, which can prevent people from getting a job or insurance because of a hereditary family health conditions.

“Right now in Ontario, technically you can deny people employment because of their parent’s medical history ... that is quite common,” Colle said. “That discrimination happens every day. People can also be denied insurance because of that.”

Mendelsohn Aviv said people in Ontario are regularly denied volunteer opportunities or jobs because of past contact they’ve had with law enforcement which shows up on police record checks required by many agencies and employers. Often, those records don’t say whether charges were dropped or stayed or if the contact was a case of error by police.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada...cs-immigration-status-and-police-records.html

 

[syn]

Hints of Harperism?

Meet the Harper veterans who could help Patrick Brown become the next premier
With an eye toward toppling Premier Kathleen Wynne in the next provincial election, the Tory leader has quietly been assembling a talented team that includes many Stephen Harper Tories.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...browns-big-tent-includes-harper-veterans.html

Are Harper Tories what Brown needs to win?

Not to doubt their experience and talent, but that's an association he needs to move away from if he wants to win, IMO.

 

[Videodrome]

http://www.cp24.com/news/social-con...f-limits-at-ontario-tory-convention-1.3628248

Patrick Brown just told the SoCons to go somewhere else.

 

[BurlOak]

Are Harper Tories what Brown needs to win?

Not to doubt their experience and talent, but that's an association he needs to move away from if he wants to win, IMO.

Look at the diversity of the Harper backroom. Based on the coverage of Harper, nobody would have guessed it.

 

[jje1000]

New recent poll- I think it very much ties into the general sentiment in Ontario- that it's time for a change, but that they don't know who to vote for yet. The other parties haven't proven why they should be in charge of government, which is unsurprising seeing their messaging so far and reluctance to release talking points (fear of Liberals cribbing/developing countermeasures against those points?).

The next few months into early 2018 will be crucial in setting the tone and talking points of the election- the Liberals will likely be doling out plenty of populist policies and spending (good and bad), and so the opposition would be wise to focus on the main planks and a strong central message/slogan, IMO.

NEWSTALK 1010 POLL: 45% OF TORONTONIANS WOULD STILL CONSIDER VOTING FOR WYNNE LIBERALS

A paltry 11% of Torontonians asked say they will absolutely vote Liberal in the provincial election set for June.

"These are clearly the worst polling numbers that I've seen in close to 30 years," says pollster John Wright. But he still sees a possible path to victory for Wynne.

45% of respondents say they are still open to voting for Wynne and the Liberals depending on what they see on the campaign trail.

"I think (Wynne) should be thinking she's on the right track, that sounds incredible to say...but I think she's got to play a very careful game," says Wright.

In her re-election pitch, he sees Wynne focusing on signature policies rather than on her leadership

Wright thinks voters are grappling with whether they're better off with the devil they know or the devil they don't.

"I don't think people know Patrick Brown. I think they only know that the (Progressive) Conservatives are telling us the same thing they've been telling us for the last two election campaigns. And I think that's why people are parking their numbers right now."

Wright says voters are also unsure about Andrea Horwath and the New Democrats, though the party was first to trumpet policies now being adopted by the Liberals, like pharmacare and a $15/hour minimum wage which Horwarth backed in April, 2016.

Other highlights from "The Pulse of Toronto" from NEWSTALK 1010 and DART:

-70% of Torontonians believe all families should have access to fully-funded public daycare, 74% of those with kids
-61% don't want the province to move ahead with the $15/hour minimum wage rollout as-planned. 44% want a longer phase-in, 17% want to abandon it
-13% believe a $15/hour minimum wage will cost them their jobs
-24% will buy marijuana soon after it becomes legal
-43% oppose any licensed pot retailer in their neighbourhoods
-54% want more technology-driven learning in school
-60% believe some fundraising monies from schools in higher-earning neighbourhoods should be transferred to lower-income area schools to balance their budgets
-31% are bothered by people of colour eventually becoming the majority population of Toronto

http://www.iheartradio.ca/newstalk-...-consider-voting-for-wynne-liberals-1.3342047

Polls located here:
http://dartincom.ca/pulse-toronto-provincial-politics-issues/

 

[blearghhh]

Hints of Harperism?

Meet the Harper veterans who could help Patrick Brown become the next premier
With an eye toward toppling Premier Kathleen Wynne in the next provincial election, the Tory leader has quietly been assembling a talented team that includes many Stephen Harper Tories.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...browns-big-tent-includes-harper-veterans.html

Fair enough. There were a ton of Harris veterans who got involved in bringing Harper to power.

 

[Hopkins123]

Fair enough. There were a ton of Harris veterans who got involved in bringing Harper to power.

Yes, no one turns a blind eye when the Chretien/Martin Liberals helped get Trudeau elected. The hypocrisy on display here knows no bounds.

 

[Hopkins123]

Well, so much for the notion that Patrick Brown has no idea what he's going to do if elected Premier:

https://convention.ontariopc.ca/recommended_policy_resolutions

 

[rbt]

Well, so much for the notion that Patrick Brown has no idea what he's going to do if elected Premier:

https://convention.ontariopc.ca/recommended_policy_resolutions

Looks like the Mid-Penn Highway is still on the table. Hamilton Mountain provided feedback on the transportation related items and nothing else. I doubt their interest was GO transit.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

One thing that occurred to me this weekend is that Wyne's Liberals may have just saved the Greenbelt Act by proposing Bill 139 (the one that removes the OMB).

Now, Patrick Brown can run on opposing Bill 139, rather than on opposing the Greenbelt Act.

 

[jje1000]

Again, the notion of short-term electoral gains over long term pain is a recurring theme in the Liberal government. It also brings into question the health of Ontario's finances, or if there's some shiftiness going around that as well.

Is it time for a change?

Auditor general blasts Kathleen Wynne's 'Fair Hydro Plan'
Liberals 'improperly' keeping hydro plan debt off government's books, says special report by Bonnie Lysyk

The Wynne government created a "needlessly complex" scheme to pay for its hydro rate cuts without showing the costs on its own bottom line, Ontario's auditor general said in a critical report released Tuesday.

Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk investigated the financing of what the Ontario Liberals call the "Fair Hydro Plan." The plan has reduced the average household electricity bill in the province by 25 per cent from the peak in the summer of 2016.

Lysyk said the government is "improperly" accounting for the $26 billion in debt the province is taking on to cut hydro bills in the short term.

The $26 billion is being borrowed through Ontario Power Generation, so will not appear on the province's books. Electricity customers will pay off that debt through rate increases spread out over the next 30 years.

The government chose that financing scheme "to keep deficits and an increase in net debt from showing up on the Province's books," Lysyk said in the report, tabled Tuesday morning in the Legislature. Anywhere else in Canada, you won't see this done. - Bonnie Lysyk, auditor general of Ontario

"The government created a needlessly complex accounting / financing structure for the electricity rate reduction in order to avoid showing a deficit or an increase in net debt," writes Lysyk .

The auditor says the plan could also result in Ontarians paying "up to $4 billion more than necessary" in interest. That's because OPG will be required to pay higher interest rates than the province would if the government took on the debt directly.

Lysyk told a news conference that the government is "wrong" in how it's accounting for the borrowing.

"Anywhere else in Canada, you won't see this done," she said. "The government's proposal is to treat that loss as an asset.

"That's like you treating your credit card debt as an asset in your books. Does that sound right to you?"

The hydro rate cuts will not last, Lysyk found. "From 2028 on, ratepayers will be charged more than the actual cost of the electricity being produced in order to pay back the borrowings," she said in the report.

"The improper accounting also inappropriately transfers long-term accountability for significantly higher electricity bills to future governments," writes Lysyk. "Future governments will have to explain to ratepayers why electricity rates charged in 2028 and beyond exceed the actual cost of electricity."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...eneral-report-fair-hydro-plan-wynne-1.4358168

Ontario’s 25-per-cent cut to hydro rate carries $4B pricetag: watchdog
Auditor general Bonnie Lysyk warns Liberals’ 25-per-cent hydro rebate could cost an additional $4B over the next 30 years.

Ontario’s financial watchdog is sounding the alarm over the Liberal government’s 25-per-cent cut in residential electricity rates.

Auditor general Bonnie Lysyk estimates the scheme, unveiled last May, could cost Ontarians an additional $4 billion in interest charges over the next 30 years.

In Lysyk’s latest salvo against the provincial government in her ongoing accounting dispute with Queen’s Park, she expressed outrage at how the hydro rebate will appear on the books.

“The accounting proposed by the government is wrong,” said the auditor general, decrying the use of U.S. accounting standards that enable the Liberals to bankroll the rate cut through the new government-owned OPG Trust.

Because the trust will have to borrow money at a higher interest rate than the province pays, Lysyk estimated there will be an extra $4 billion in charges over 30 years for a total of $39.4 billion.

But that is not reflected on the provincial treasury’s annual bottom line because electricity ratepayers, not taxpayers, will cover the tab.

“They had to come up with something that would not derail the government’s promise to present balanced budgets for 2017-18 and the next few years,” she said Tuesday.

But Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown accused the Liberals of using “shady accounting methods and cooking the books for politically motivated reasons.”

Brown said the hydro cut was a “re-election ploy” to help the Grits in the June 7, 2018 campaign.

NDP MPP Peter Tabuns (Toronto Danforth) said Lysyk has exposed “an Enron-style accounting scheme whose sole purpose is to hide this truth from the public.

“The auditor general has confirmed that Kathleen Wynne’s hydro borrowing scheme will cost Ontarians $40 billion, and that Kathleen Wynne will charge families $4 billion, just for the accounting tricks she’s using to cover up just how bad this plan is,” said Tabuns.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...atchdog-sounds-alarm-over-hydro-rate-cut.html

The report itself:
http://auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/FairHydroPlan_en.pdf