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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

MetroMan

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#1
After last night's defeat in a safe Liberal riding to the Provincial Conservatives and watching a new PC leader who is willing to admit mistakes and doesn't seem interested in getting into controversial policies, I'm afraid that the Liberals are toast and we most likely will see the end to the Big Move before some of its flagship projects get under way.

Wynne says that she's staying on to contest the 2018 election but I'd much rather see her give up the mantle to a new leader who comes in with a clean slate and gives the Liberals a chance at remaining in power. Wynne is very unpopular and I think that it's irresponsible and selfish for her to remain.

Can Wynne win in 2018? Should she step down now? If so, who should succeed her?

Mod note: original thread title was Can Wynne win in 2018? Title changed to reflect the broader 2018 provincial election discussion
 
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jje1000

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#3
I hope not- every government needs a change from time to time or else patronage gets entrenched and becomes corruption.

The Conservatives have still not gotten rid of their Harrisite sector and Brown may still be a Social Conservative at heart, so the best case scenario we can hope for is a Conservative minority.
 
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narduch

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#6
I actually question how good the Liberals really are on transit.

Overall, I find the Liberals over-promise and then under-deliver (not just on transit).

And even after the gas plant debacle, they still come across as sneaky, not honest and borderline corrupt.

A well run campaign by the PC's will most likely take them down. Whether the PC's can pull that off is another story.
 
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#7
In the last by-election, 71.86% of eligible voters did not bother to vote. That meant 28.14% made a decision to vote.

38.58% of that 28.14% did vote Cho, or 10.85% of eligible voters voted PC. The remainder, 89.15%, didn't care for Cho nor even voted.

In the meantime, the 71.86% shouldn't complain nor compliment the goings on at Queens Park.
 

Juan_Lennon416

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#8
In the last by-election, 71.86% of eligible voters did not bother to vote. That meant 28.14% made a decision to vote.

38.58% of that 28.14% did vote Cho, or 10.85% of eligible voters voted PC. The remainder, 89.15%, didn't care for Cho nor even voted.

In the meantime, the 71.86% shouldn't complain nor compliment the goings on at Queens Park.

Oh yeah...we had great choices in the last by-election. We had a choice between 'past his prime' Cho, 'desperate to be a politician' Shan and 'nice guy but connected to Wynne' Piriagal. That's why turnout was so low!
 

MetroMan

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#9
The Liberals in Ontario should be riding the wave of Trudeaumania but Wynne just doesn't seem to have the charisma to pull it off. She also lacks the transparency that the federal government is being lauded for. How could she mess up so bad after successfully overcoming the Liberals' Dalton McGuinty induced near certain political death?

Ok, let's pretend the Liberal Party sits Wynne down and tells her "look, you're not going to win. Step down graciously and avoid dragging the party with you." Who does the Liberal Party put in her place? Does Ontario have an unresistably likeable Trudeauesque leader in waiting?
 

mjl08

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#10
It will be interesting to see what happens in Spring 2018. That's a century in politics, but I'm sensing a bit of "Wynne/Ontario Liberal fatigue," and not just among the usual suspects - the tabloids and talk radio - but among their natural constituencies, like the urban chattering classes.

By 2018 that will 15 years of Liberal Ontario rule, that is more than the Rae Era + Common Sense Revolution combined. The question is whether or not Patrick Brown can appeal to the mainstream, and not just the PC policy conventions, and whether Horwath can take heed of the recent disappointing federal and provincial NDP performances.
 

BurlOak

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#11
This in in the Toronto Politics section, so I think she will get more seats in Toronto than the others.

2 years is a long time in politics, so I wouldn't count her out as Premiere.

In 2007, people figured that McGuinty would be out due to his dishonesty, but he got a majority. In 2011, people figured that McGuinty would be out when his poor economic record and corruption began to show, but he won a very strong minority. In 2013, about this time, PCs won a by-election and those same dishonest, corrupt and poor manager of the economy were being shown by Wynne. No one thought she has a chance, but then won a majority a year later. Even a year ago. The consensus was that Canadians would not vote for an idiot like Trudeau. Thought was that if anyone was tired of the shy, reserved non-emotional way that Harper had produced the best economic growth in the G7, they would vote for Mulcair, who showed some fire, but also intelligence.

You can say the PCs made mistakes in each of those campaigns, but they were miniscule in comparison to the errors the Liberals made while in power. The Liberals have a few things going for them as they did I this past elections.
  1. They have bought of the teachers unions, who at not only going to campaign with them, but also spend big money and try to influence parents.
  2. The press is always left leaning and they will no doubt scrutinize Patrick Brown with a magnifying glass while overlooking Liberals errors that at orders of magnitude worse.
  3. There voters are much more loyal and partisan than PC voters. This may be because the party has been around longer. The PCs have always looked to change and improve (merging with Progressives, Reform, Alliance, etc), while the Liberals have moved along the spectrum from Right (Chretien, Martin) to extreme Left (Wynne), but the party name stayed constant.
I don't think the Liberals being reduced to 2 seats, as happened to the federal Tories in 1993, although they likely deserve it. The Liberals still have the ability to finish anywhere from first to third. The Conservatives will be first or second and the NDP 2nd or third.
Upon farther reflection, maybe third or first is more realistic for the Liberals - either the voters are paying attention, or they are not.
 
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Northern Light

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#12
I think, irrespective of one's partisan or ideological leanings, incumbents tend to do well if the economy is humming along.

I suspect the Liberals could use it to improve some.......should that happen, that puts them in a decent place.

People are distinctly irritated over hydro price hikes, and anyone w/experience w/the healthcare system as of late can tell you wait times are most certainly up (verifiable on the
Ministry of Health's website).

That said, there are always things governments can do better...........but they will need to deliver on some good news ahead of the next election cycle.

Transit has been one thing they've staked their name on.....as discussed in other threads, announcements and plans are plentiful, results are slow in coming.

Next year should see the opening of the Spadina subway extension; that may help a a bit.

But they really need to appease those 905 voters by getting some of the GO improvements delivered on.

K-W line, All-day, two-way is a must, and they really should get partial delivery on same for the Barrie and Stouffville Corridors well before a 2018 election date; along w/some
new rush hour capacity on the Lakeshore corridor.

***

On the left, they need to show some tangible gains for lower-middle-income folks. Something like a real increase in the minimum wage (say $1.50 an hour) and something else, take your choice,
paid sick days by law, or prescription drug care for low-income families etc. etc. Something to put on the mantle.

For the more conservative minded, they need to balance the books, and have it stick, with back to back surplus budgets for 2017-18, and 2018-19.

***

In the end they will need some help from their Federal cousins with some extra health $, and some other federal programs that relieve the provincial treasury of some burdens.

Whether that will happen, we shall have to see.

***

All of that is also subject to the other parties/leaders not making a royal hash of things.
 

Videodrome

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#13
My riding (Scarborough Centre) has been a bellwether since 1971, so I wouldn't be surprised if it went PC next time.
 

rbt

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#14
Ok, let's pretend the Liberal Party sits Wynne down and tells her "look, you're not going to win. Step down graciously and avoid dragging the party with you." Who does the Liberal Party put in her place? Does Ontario have an unresistably likeable Trudeauesque leader in waiting?
The reason she got a shot in the first place was they weren't expected to win. Somehow with her rather risky election policies not only did they win, they got a majority. Wynne isn't going anywhere until voters toss her out. New leaders almost never win a majority in their first election attempt; devil you know and all that.

My bet last March was on a minority Conservative government for 2018. We seem to like our Federal and provincial governments to be different parties and Trudeau has strong support. I'm still hoping GO RER contracts are locked in before the election though; Wynne can still leave one heck of a legacy behind.

Who knows, another very urban election might still have some steam to it. A balanced budget, open TYSSE, hourly Barrie service, Smart Track pending construction (endorsement from Tory?), Finch West starting construction makes for a large number of good news items between now and election day.
 
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MetroMan

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#15
In provincial politics, when I think "likeable", I think Gerrard Kennedy and Glenn Murray. I think that what Ontario Liberals need is less of a policy wonk and more of a charismatic face that can reconnect with voters and tame that brewing hate for the party.

There are two more by-elections before the general. Perhaps if the Liberals lose all 3, it'll be a wake up call and Wynne will consider passing the torch.