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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Wynne still has aces up her sleeve. She knows what’s in Browns platform now. She has 1 more budget to pass and can ramp up on a platform that gets the core L vote out. Promise to fund the DRL, sprinkle a tax cut here, reduce daycare fees or introduce a Quebec like model for daycare. That alone would get her a win from parents. PC daycare tax credits are fine but if you can’t afford daycare in the first place they won’t work. Transit and daycare are big urban concerns. Cover those plus usual education and health investment and she has a good chance to rule Ontario for another 4 years. NDP ridings will be targeted heavily and Andrea better have a good plan this time or NDP may loose party status this time.
 
MetroMan said:
The odds are now 50-50 of Wynne being re-elected — and this before an election throughout which Ontario Conservatives typically lose a few points. Quite the turnaround from when this thread was created.

Toronto Star:
The political resurrection of Premier Kathleen Wynne
Click to expand...

Knew it was a Cohn article before I even clicked on the link. I almost believe he's the unofficial Liberal spokesperson at the Star.


Some more recent polling- bodes well for a minority government. Expect big monies to be thrown into the 905.
Majority of Ontario residents believe it’s time for leadership change at Queen’s Park: poll
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With the 2018 provincial election months away, a new exclusive Ipsos poll for Global News finds a majority of Ontarians believe it is time for a change in Queen’s Park.

At the moment, the poll suggests the incumbent Liberals appear to be in trouble with the Progressive Conservative Party holding the lead. But it is the New Democratic Party who holds the momentum.
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If an election were to be held tomorrow, the PCs under Patrick Brown would win with 36 per cent of the decided voters, but those numbers are down three points since Ipsos’ last findings in September. The NDP under Andrea Horwath, however, are up six points, sitting at 28 per cent. That finding ties them with Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, who have dropped four percentage points.

But overall, 81 per cent of residents polled said they believe it is time for another party to take over.
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While the vast majority of Ontario residents believe change should happen, a number of variables, including key ridings, candidate popularity and a historically high number of people (one in ten) saying they would vote for a party other than the big three, including the provincial Green Party, that could shift voters one way or the other. Seventeen per cent of voters surveyed remain undecided.

The 905 ridings around the GTA appear to be the tightest race. With the Liberals at 34 per cent and the PCs at 32, they are statistically tied factoring in the margin of error. The NDP sit in third with 24 per cent.
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The popularity of Horwath is the “wildcard,” according to Ipsos Global Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker. He emphasized that Wynne isn’t very popular and Brown is still relatively unknown. Forty-one per cent of voters believe that Horwath would make the best premier, 37 per cent believe in Brown and Wynne sits well behind at 22 per cent.
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https://globalnews.ca/news/3927628/ontario-election-2018-ipsos-poll/
 
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An NDP at 28% is much more efficient than a Liberal vote at 28%. The Liberal vote tends to be universal, so around 28% across the province, which would put them in 2nd or 3rd in many ridings. An NDP at 28% would help push them up and over the winning mark in ridings where they are competitive (like in parts of Southwestern Ontario), while staying at 10% in places like Thornhill or Ajax where they never had a shot anyway.
 
toaster29 said:
An NDP at 28% is much more efficient than a Liberal vote at 28%. The Liberal vote tends to be universal, so around 28% across the province, which would put them in 2nd or 3rd in many ridings. An NDP at 28% would help push them up and over the winning mark in ridings where they are competitive (like in parts of Southwestern Ontario), while staying at 10% in places like Thornhill or Ajax where they never had a shot anyway.
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Actually, there've been times when it's been the reverse--most notably 2003, when the ONDP lost two seats and official party status despite gaining 2% of the vote; a lot of that gain turned out to be bottom-feeding "wasted vote" in places like the 905. (They regained official party status the following year when Andrea Howarth--yes, her--won the Hamilton East byelection; in fact, part of her campaign was expressly to reinstate the NDP's OPS.)
 
adma said:
Actually, there've been times when it's been the reverse--most notably 2003, when the ONDP lost two seats and official party status despite gaining 2% of the vote; a lot of that gain turned out to be bottom-feeding "wasted vote" in places like the 905. (They regained official party status the following year when Andrea Howarth--yes, her--won the Hamilton East byelection; in fact, part of her campaign was expressly to reinstate the NDP's OPS.)
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The NDP vote was so low then (and not nearly close to the Liberal vote), that it wouldn't make a difference, and 2 seat change is not statistically significant against an over 100 seat count.
If you look at the trend over time, NDP at the same percentage as the Liberals tends to favour the NDP in seat count. Take most of those 905 ridings where the NDP is virtually non-existent, and compare the 2011 election to the 2014 election, you will see virtually identical percentage of votes received by NDP candidates, despite a 6% increase in the ONDP popular vote across the province. Where this 6% vote increase came from was in huge jumps in the 3-way (or two way races) where the NDP was competitive enough to have a chance at winning.
 
The NDP who label themselves as 'fighting for the marginalized' might be more keen on getting the LRT lines that go through low-income neighbourhoods built (i.e. Sheppard East and Jane).
 
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Juan_Lennon416 said:
Toronto, you have have to learn to get over the ghosts of Mike Harris and Bob Rae. It has been years since they haunted Ontario :rolleyes:
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Their modern renditions have not given us any reason to trust them again.

With the Ontario Liberals, I know exactly what to expect and how low to set the bar.
 
Juan_Lennon416 said:
Toronto, you have have to learn to get over the ghosts of Mike Harris and Bob Rae. It has been years since they haunted Ontario :rolleyes:
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With McGuinty and Wynne, Bob Rae has now moved into 3rd worst premier in Ontario history. Maybe we can cut him some slack.
 
toaster29 said:
The NDP vote was so low then (and not nearly close to the Liberal vote), that it wouldn't make a difference, and 2 seat change is not statistically significant against an over 100 seat count.
If you look at the trend over time, NDP at the same percentage as the Liberals tends to favour the NDP in seat count. Take most of those 905 ridings where the NDP is virtually non-existent, and compare the 2011 election to the 2014 election, you will see virtually identical percentage of votes received by NDP candidates, despite a 6% increase in the ONDP popular vote across the province. Where this 6% vote increase came from was in huge jumps in the 3-way (or two way races) where the NDP was competitive enough to have a chance at winning.
Click to expand...

But you see, that's 2011 vs 2014; I'm talking about 1999 vs 2003. And a lot of that owes something to deeper dynamics: in 2003, a lot of "non-target" seats where the ONDP bottomed out around 5% or less in 1999 went up t/w the 10% level, while other single-digit percentages became double-digit percentages. That's where a lot of that overall share increase from 12.6% to 14.7% frittered away to. And on top of that, let me throw in the 2004 federal election, where Jack Layton brought the NDP to 18.1% in Ontario while "only" winning, like its provincial counterpart the previous year, 7 seats--much of that share was due to the party hitting mid-teen shares in hitherto no-hope wastelands like Northumberland and Quinte and what have you. As well as similar increases in the 905.

2014 was different--in a way, more like 1999 than 2003 (or even more so, 2015 than 2011 federally) when it came to the non-target 905 and 416, i.e. the ONDP was pulverized by the urge to vote "strategically", with little incentive to draw that extra bottom-feeder mandate. (And that owed plenty to the respective campaigns of Wynne vs Horwath.)

And also, you refer to the 6% jump in the ONDP *popular* vote in 2014. However, when it comes to *share*, they only gained 1.01% over 2011 (to 23.75%), and that's *with* the added byelection cushioning in Waterloo/London/Niagara/Windsor. And you see, when it comes to psephological geeks, it's all about the *share*, rather than the raw numbers per se...
 
adma said:
But you see, that's 2011 vs 2014; I'm talking about 1999 vs 2003. And a lot of that owes something to deeper dynamics: in 2003, a lot of "non-target" seats where the ONDP bottomed out around 5% or less in 1999 went up t/w the 10% level, while other single-digit percentages became double-digit percentages. That's where a lot of that overall share increase from 12.6% to 14.7% frittered away to. And on top of that, let me throw in the 2004 federal election, where Jack Layton brought the NDP to 18.1% in Ontario while "only" winning, like its provincial counterpart the previous year, 7 seats--much of that share was due to the party hitting mid-teen shares in hitherto no-hope wastelands like Northumberland and Quinte and what have you. As well as similar increases in the 905.

2014 was different--in a way, more like 1999 than 2003 (or even more so, 2015 than 2011 federally) when it came to the non-target 905 and 416, i.e. the ONDP was pulverized by the urge to vote "strategically", with little incentive to draw that extra bottom-feeder mandate. (And that owed plenty to the respective campaigns of Wynne vs Horwath.)

And also, you refer to the 6% jump in the ONDP *popular* vote in 2014. However, when it comes to *share*, they only gained 1.01% over 2011 (to 23.75%), and that's *with* the added byelection cushioning in Waterloo/London/Niagara/Windsor. And you see, when it comes to psephological geeks, it's all about the *share*, rather than the raw numbers per se...
Click to expand...

Sorry, I meant a 6% increase in their seat number from 2011 to 2014. From 2007 to 2011 there was a 6% increase in their vote, and they added 7 seats (which was a 70% increase in seat numbers given they only had 10 at the time).
 
lead82 said:
Wynne still has aces up her sleeve. She knows what’s in Browns platform now. She has 1 more budget to pass and can ramp up on a platform that gets the core L vote out. Promise to fund the DRL, sprinkle a tax cut here, reduce daycare fees or introduce a Quebec like model for daycare. That alone would get her a win from parents. PC daycare tax credits are fine but if you can’t afford daycare in the first place they won’t work. Transit and daycare are big urban concerns. Cover those plus usual education and health investment and she has a good chance to rule Ontario for another 4 years. NDP ridings will be targeted heavily and Andrea better have a good plan this time or NDP may loose party status this time.
Click to expand...
MetroMan said:
The odds are now 50-50 of Wynne being re-elected — and this before an election throughout which Ontario Conservatives typically lose a few points. Quite the turnaround from when this thread was created.

Toronto Star:
The political resurrection of Premier Kathleen Wynne
Click to expand...

Brown's platform validates a lot of what the Liberals have done. He had to move to the centre, but it also gives the Liberals a stronger case for the status quo.

At this point I don't think the Liberals will win, but it's certainly possible - moreso than it was before.
 
Videodrome said:
How many disgruntled PC supporters might choose the Trillium party? I got one of their robocalls this week.
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If the Trillium Party gets more than 10-15,000 votes total in the next election I'll be shocked. This election is too important to leave anything to chance for most right wing electorates.
 
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