2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[Bayer]

I don’t think the PC promise list adds up either, but I don’t see how it adds up worse than the > $200 billion shortfall under the sitting Liberal government.

That shortfall was not the result of excessive spending. As I always remind people (even though data doesn't seem to sway them much these days), our per capita spending is among the lowest in Canada. Balancing the budget all those years would have meant drastic service reductions that would not have been in the public's interest. I will pay more attention to what the Liberals have been doing in the past year than in the "iridescent vapidity", as Andrew Coyne calls it, of Brown's platform.

 

[Videodrome]

I was discussing the daycare fee promise with my mom the other day and it may not make a big difference for us, as our youngest won't be in the full day program next year, just before and after school.

 

[christiesplits]

"Elections are no time for policy debates."

I don't think the PCs care about whether or not their promises add up. I also don't think Brown is sincere in his 'centrist' views. However, the platform was an absolute success for them in that it introduced Patrick Brown to people and symbolically shoved the social conservatives and nutty rural landowner types to the side. If you live in North Toronto or Woodbridge, Brown and his platform are much more palatable than Hudak.

 

[ttk77]

"Elections are no time for policy debates."

I don't think the PCs care about whether or not their promises add up. I also don't think Brown is sincere in his 'centrist' views. However, the platform was an absolute success for them in that it introduced Patrick Brown to people and symbolically shoved the social conservatives and nutty rural landowner types to the side. If you live in North Toronto or Woodbridge, Brown and his platform are much more palatable than Hudak.

I think this is probably true. I'm curious how those social conservatives and "nutty rural landowner types" are going to respond. I don't think they're even close to the majority of the PC base, but they are often the most vocal part of it.

 

[jje1000]

Interesting note from last week:

Ontario's excess green electricity sold at a loss of $500M a year, engineers say

The Ontario Society of Professional Engineers (OSPE) wants Queen’s Park to take the politics out of energy planning and design.

The OSPE said in 2016 the provincial government exported 14.6 terawatt-hours (TWh) of clean electricity at a financial loss of more than $500 million, according to a new report by the group’s energy task force.

“This represents a year’s worth of power for more than a million homes that Ontario has sold to other jurisdictions for less than it costs us to produce,” said energy expert Paul Acchione, former president and chair of OSPE in a Nov. 21 statement.

“Ontario ratepayers are essentially subsidizing hydro bills in places like Michigan and New York to the tune of $500 million per year.”

“Engineers know how to fix these problems, but they need to be empowered. Engineers must be given independence in planning and designing integrated power and energy system plans,” said OPSE president and chair Jonathan Hack in a news release.

“It is imperative that we depoliticize what should be technical judgments regarding energy mix, generation, distribution, pricing and future investments in Ontario.

“We are concerned that the government does not currently have enough engineers in key ministry positions to properly assess the balance between environmental commitments and economic welfare when it comes to energy.”

https://www.sudbury.com/local-news/clean-green-and-exported-at-a-loss-772863

 

[TrickyRicky]

Bayer, my point was that the fact that the sitting Liberal government never even tried to balance out policy commitments and revenue generation kind of neutralizes the argument that the PC's platform "doesn't add up". The strongest argument that can be made is that the Liberal's governing doesn't add up and the PC's promised governing doesn't add up.

The underlying philosophical reason why I will not vote Liberal and will never do so until the current generation of Ontario Liberals are gone is this: Excuse my terminology because I'm a political layman but basically on the Right there is a strain of thought that tries to starve government purposely in order to shrink government in size. If you take away revenue, the budget is always in crisis leading to forced cutbacks in a kind of government negative feedback loop. However, less well articulated is the opposite movement on the Left. The idea is to continuously create policies under a progressive banner that causes an infinite series of negative impacts on one group or the other that can be used to create more policy solutions, a kind of government positive feedback loop. The Wynne Liberals are some of the best architects of government positive feedback looping I have ever seen.

Our Province will always see-saw one way or the other politically but in my opinion we are way out of balance one way at the moment and it is time to (actually 4 years ago it was time) to bring it back to centre even at the risk of going overboard on the Right.

 

[ADRM]

The idea is to continuously create policies under a progressive banner that causes an infinite series of negative impacts on one group or the other that can be used to create more policy solutions

This is a truly peculiar attempt at an encapsulation of the ideology of "the left."

I'm an unabashed progressive because I believe folks generally deserve a helping hand (and even if they don't deserve it, that they should still be availed of it).

And even if I didn't think that way, I'd still never be caught dead supporting a bunch of homophobic individualists.

 

[jje1000]

Again, uncharted waters here hiking the wages so high in such a short period of time.

Ontario small-business owners raising prices to cover minimum wage hikes

The provincial Liberal government is increasing the minimum wage to $14 an hour as of Jan. 1 and then to $15 by Jan. 1, 2019 – an increase of about 23 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively, from just over two months ago. The rate increased to $11.60 from $11.40 in October.

"It is meaningful, the way it affects us," says Andrew Violi, president of Mellow Walk Footwear, a Toronto-based manufacturer of footwear sold to retailers such as Mark's and Mister Safety Shoes.

Mr. Violi says the higher wages will add about another $250,000 in expenses in 2018, and the company may have to eliminate up to five of its 60 positions as a result. He says some of the additional expenses will still need to be passed on to its customers through higher prices.

Raising prices is a risky move for companies such as Mellow Walk that compete with suppliers in other countries, such as China, where labour costs are cheaper. "It is a worry that we could price ourselves out of the market," says Mr. Violi. "We are trying to pass along the minimum increase that we need to."

We are on some new ground here," says Dan Kelly, president and CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. "We've seen minimum wage increases for years ... but not this rapid of an increase over a shorter period of time." The Ontario government changed legislation passed in 2014 to tie minimum wage increases to the provinces's Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of inflation.

For many businesses, raising prices will be a risk. "You take a deep breath when you do it, not knowing if your consumer is going to stick with you," says Mr. Kelly. "I think there will be a lot of businesses that will try first, but are going to find that will lead to a reduction in the demand for their product and services. That will take an even further toll on wages and hours."

There is no right time for small businesses to raise prices, says Steve Pulver, director of entrepreneurial studies at York University's Schulich School of Business. He recommends businesses phase them in slowly, be transparent about why they're higher and keep politics out of it. "If someone asks, you just say 'we've held our prices for this long, wages went up and we had to raise our prices,'" he says. "Do it as slowly as you can afford to.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...-to-cover-minimum-wage-hikes/article37166501/

 

[picard102]

Maybe they shouldn't have relied on paying poverty level wages to build their business in the first place.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Maybe they shouldn't have relied on paying poverty level wages to build their business in the first place.

Increasing wages by over 30% in less than two years is not something to be flippantly dismissed. If Wynne had declared she was increasing corporate hydro rates or other business inputs by 30% we would I hope be fighting, but when it's labour the businesses are not allowed to complain?

 

[blixtex]

"Elections are no time for policy debates."

I don't think the PCs care about whether or not their promises add up. I also don't think Brown is sincere in his 'centrist' views. However, the platform was an absolute success for them in that it introduced Patrick Brown to people and symbolically shoved the social conservatives and nutty rural landowner types to the side. If you live in North Toronto or Woodbridge, Brown and his platform are much more palatable than Hudak.

Yupp. This is the right move. Go Liberal and NDP without the excesses of the NDP or corruption of the Liberals (Ontario loves to spend.. spend ... spend). This should bold well for him and the PCs.

 

[syn]

Increasing wages by over 30% in less than two years is not something to be flippantly dismissed. If Wynne had declared she was increasing corporate hydro rates or other business inputs by 30% we would I hope be fighting, but when it's labour the businesses are not allowed to complain?

Increasing wages goes to people who will actually spend money.

Increasing hydro rates is detrimental to everyone.

Big difference.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Increasing wages goes to people who will actually spend money.

Increasing hydro rates is detrimental to everyone.

Big difference.

I was referring to hydro rates paid by corporations rather than residential. The Ontario gov't is more than capable and willing to increase business hydro rates independently of residential rates.

You do realize there are different rates, right?

http://www.torontohydro.com/sites/electricsystem/business/rates/Pages/busrates.aspx
http://www.torontohydro.com/sites/electricsystem/residential/rates/pages/resirates.aspx

 

[ssiguy2]

Brown had no choice but to move the party left. Like last time he had all the rural areas sewn up and guess what.........he lost the election.

Contrary to popular Toronto media belief his urban support comes from the 905 and not the other major Ontario cities. His support is higher in the 905 than anywhere else in the province. He will do well in the 905 but will do equally poorly in the 416 so the 2 tend to cancel each other out. This middle of the road platform is very much geared to Ontario's other urban centres where he must make serious inroads. In the last election the Tories didn't get one seat in Windsor, London, and Hamilton and only one from KWC. Ottawa is Liberal territory as well.

Torontonians and it's media generalize that SWO/Central is conservative which is not at all the case. The rural areas are but definitely not the cities which is where most of them live. As for the Liberals, they need to try to get more 905 seats and especially woo some of those NDP strong cities of Hamilton, London, and Windsor over to the Liberal cause. This is where the Liberals have a real chance of forming government.......by playing the "anyone but the conservatives" card. It worked wonders for Trudeau as the NDP & Green votes headed to the Liberals at the last minute. Brown is well aware of this and thus the move to the centre as he doesn't want the ABTC card to play out in Ontario. Brown's platform is a preemptive strike.

 

[Videodrome]

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2811/ontario-horserace-november-2017

Another poll showing the PC's in the lead. Still time for a "faith based schools" moment.