2014 Ontario Provincial Election

[TOareaFan]

Pam Hundal (PC) came in third in Brampton-Springdale. In 2011, the Hundal came close to defeating Linda Jeffrey (who resigned recently to run for mayor). The NDP did well in Brampton generally.

It is funny/strange......but before we voted we re-watched the televised (Rogers) local candidates debate yesterday. Whatever you think of Pam Hundal, she was the only candidate answering the questions from a local perspective the other candidates "spoke" (the really read) from the various party platforms.

Example, Brampton is drastically underserved from a health care perspective...when the healthcare question was asked, the Liberal and NDP candidates spoke of average wait times across the province, investments in hospitals in other communities, etc. Hundal actually spoke to the fact that we still don't have all the beds open in our "new" hospital that opened in 2007 and, despite government promises to the contrary, our old hospital was closed in 2007 and the replacement (bed less "hospital") was still to be built. She new the facts that we have the worst bed to population ratio in the province that we have, in many categories of health care, the worst access in the province...the others had no idea.

In other areas discussed (transit, roads, education, etc) she was similarly well versed on the local matters....the others (to be frank) could have been replaced with computer screens showing their parties' platforms.

So, I think, it is fare to say that riding voted not locally but on a party basis.

 

[TrickyRicky]

jje1000, I clearly did not say that all business owners are PC voters. I'm not sure where you got that or why you commented in this way.

Positives to take from the election for me are a stable majority government giving Wynne a free hand to make tough choices, tough choices she will 100% have to wear. A Hudak resignation allowing the PC's to shift strategy and potentially eject his arm of the party from their leadership group. Infrastructure investments. Labour groups can't say their demands are reasonable and it's the evil conservatives that are attacking families, it will be one of their own who will have to reign them in.

Negatives? Dubious economic climate, 40-50 billion more in debt including potential debt downgrades.

 

[James]

Why is there such NDP support in Brampton anyway? That has always puzzled me.

Anyway, Thornhill going to Liberals (by 85 votes!!!) is HUGE! That raving populist anti-transit Gila Martow is now out of office! There is now no opposition and a mandate to create that BRT in Thornhill.

I found both of these scenarios interesting too. Brampton was Liberal, which was not a surprise but the Bramalea-Gore-Malton area went NDP. One of the few 905 ridings that were orange.

I also can't believe how close Thornhill was. It definitely looked like it was going PC until the very end.

 

[TOareaFan]

In hindsight the result of this election should have been very predictable.

Statscan shows that a signifcantly higher percentage of Ontarians carry a mortgage than any other province and the % of Ontarians who pay a very high percentage of their earnings to cover their mortgages is much higher than other provinces. It should be no surprise, then, that we are comfortable, as a group ignoring high debt levels and, in fact, look to parties that will take on more of it to get shiny new stuff.

 

[ttk77]

Negatives? Dubious economic climate, 40-50 billion more in debt including potential debt downgrades.

To be fair, assuming Wynne lives up to her 3year balanced budget projection the debit increase will be less than 10 billion more than had the PC party been elected. Still a large sum of money, but there is also danger in cutting too fast which could in the long term cause much more economic damage than the <$10billion in additional debt gain.

 

[TOareaFan]

To be fair, assuming Wynne lives up to her 3year balanced budget projection the debit increase will be less than 10 billion more than had the PC party been elected. Still a large sum of money, but there is also danger in cutting too fast which could in the long term cause much more economic damage than the <$10billion in additional debt gain.

But they have promised to cut at the same speed (faster actually). It is not like they are proposing to cut gradually over 3 years as opposed to the PCs cutting in 2. The Liberals are increasing the deficit for 1 year then cutting to balanced in two.

The answer I looked for (and asked every Liberal I met during the election) was....if taking a deficit of $11.3 billion to balance in 2 years is drastic/devastating why is taking a $12.5B deficit to balance in 2 years not equally or more drastic/devastating?

 

[TOareaFan]

I found both of these scenarios interesting too. Brampton was Liberal, which was not a surprise but the Bramalea-Gore-Malton area stayed NDP. One of the few 905 ridings that were orange.

Fixed your post a bit......no matter what party you support, it is hard not to be impressed with the work and commitment of Jagmeet Singh since he was elected in 2011.

 

[ttk77]

But they have promised to cut at the same speed (faster actually). It is not like they are proposing to cut gradually over 3 years as opposed to the PCs cutting in 2. The Liberals are increasing the deficit for 1 year then cutting to balanced in two.

The answer I looked for (and asked every Liberal I met during the election) was....if taking a deficit of $11.3 billion to balance in 2 years is drastic/devastating why is taking a $12.5B deficit to balance in 2 years not equally or more drastic/devastating?

That's a fair question. What answers did you get?

 

[TOareaFan]

That's a fair question. What answers did you get?

Nothing specific (if you recall in the debate Ms Wynne just refused to answer the question too) beyond "it is a promise, it will happen"

 

[JasonParis]

I'm going to be bold and predict a small, but impressive, Liberal majority.
LIB - 56, PC - 40, NDP - 11, Greens - 0.

Well I was fairly close on the Liberal front and one of the few to predict a majority if I may toot my own horn! I obviously underestimated the NDP's numbers (although I was right about Toronto losses), and greatly overestimated the PC's. In fact, the biggest story out of last night might indeed be the softness of the PC support and its translation into seats.

Hudak for sure is out.
Horvath will be fine, she's grown the party from 17 to an apparent 21 seats, a 24% increase.

More correctly, she kept her by-election wins too, plus gained one seat (I think).

That is the misinformation that the unions spent millions on.. They never said they would "fire" anyone. Cuts would have been through attrition. Oh well, another 4 years of bloated government and scandals on my dime.

Even if the attrition line is to be believed, not replacing someone is still a cut.

Why is there such NDP support in Brampton anyway? That has always puzzled me.

It's a blue collar town historically and very diverse racially. In fact, the eastern part of Brampton (Bramalea/Springdale) has more in common with Malton (Mississauga) and Rexdale (Toronto) to some degrees than it does with the western half of Brampton. It's similar in some ways to parts of Scarborough too really. In other words, areas where the Liberals have pretty-much always done well.

 

[TOareaFan]

It's a blue collar town historically and very diverse racially. In fact, the eastern part of Brampton (Bramalea/Springdale) has more in common with Malton (Mississauga) and Rexdale (Toronto) to some degrees than it does with the western half of Brampton. It's similar in some ways to parts of Scarborough too really. In other words, areas where the Liberals have pretty-much always done well.

minor point of correction....hard, for me to describe a riding that stretches to Kennedy Road as the eastern part of Brampton. If anything it is more centre with Bramalea-Gore-Malton to its east and Brampton West to, well, its west.

 

[JasonParis]

Fair correction!

 

[WislaHD]

In hindsight the result of this election should have been very predictable.

Statscan shows that a signifcantly higher percentage of Ontarians carry a mortgage than any other province and the % of Ontarians who pay a very high percentage of their earnings to cover their mortgages is much higher than other provinces. It should be no surprise, then, that we are comfortable, as a group ignoring high debt levels and, in fact, look to parties that will take on more of it to get shiny new stuff.

That is just being bitter now...

You are right though, the results of this election was easily predictable but for different reasons. You try that stint of a campaign Hudak pulled and you alienate Red Tory and disgruntled Liberal supports alike, and scare NDP voters to vote strategically.

More correctly, she kept her by-election wins too, plus gained one seat (I think).

It's a blue collar town historically and very diverse racially. In fact, the eastern part of Brampton (Bramalea/Springdale) has more in common with Malton (Mississauga) and Rexdale (Toronto) to some degrees than it does with the western half of Brampton. It's similar in some ways to parts of Scarborough too really. In other words, areas where the Liberals have pretty-much always done well.

Thanks that makes sense.

Also, I believe NDP gained two new seats and lost two old seats.

 

[TOareaFan]

That is just being bitter now...

You are right though, the results of this election was easily predictable but for different reasons. You try that stint of a campaign Hudak pulled and you alienate Red Tory and disgruntled Liberal supports alike, and scare NDP voters to vote strategically

Sorry if it sounded bitter but it was meant more of an observation......as many here know, the deficit and debt were my number one issue and it is my opinion (not shared by many here, I know) that it Ontario is making a mistake running higher deficits now and increasing its debt faster than its economy is growing.

Yes this morning I did go looking for a reason/explanation for why so many of my fellow Ontarians would not see that and it is clear in the statscan data that people in Ontario take on more personal debt and seem more comfortable with it than in any other province in the country. So it does make sense that if you are personally comfortable with high levels of debt you would be less likely to be concerned with debt at the government/provincial level and less receptive to a party/platform that was focused on the elimination of deficits and the reduction of debt as it relates to GDP.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Sorry Albertans and BC got higher level of personal debt than Ontario.

AoD