2014 Ontario Provincial Election

[doady]

It all depends where you live

If you live in Scarborough or Etobicoke...a vote for the NDP is a vote for the PCs
If you live in Mississauga a vote for the NDP is a vote for the PCs

You do realize that one of the Mississauga ridings is currently held by the NDP, right?

 

[BobbyS]

You do realize that one of the Mississauga ridings is currently held by the NDP, right?

Ummmmm....which riding would that be?

Edit: if referring to Bram-Gore-Malton, I consider that to be MORE a Brampton riding than a Mississauga riding..based on geography.

 

[travis3000]

My final prediction:

LIBERALS: 47 seats

CONS: 38 seats

NDP: 22 seats

Verdict: Liberal Minority.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Tiger's prediction:

Lib 50
Con 35
NDP 22

 

[GenerationW]

Going with the anarchist prediction...

Lib 37
Con 35
NDP 35

Liberals channel their inner Joe Clark, introduce the same budget, it gets voted down again, and then another election six weeks later.

 

[WislaHD]

308 updated their ridings chart this morning based on yesterday's polling.

The Liberals are now polling ahead in Ottawa-West Napean and Ottawa-Orleans ridings!!!

Liberals are also now leading in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Holiday's riding.

 

[WislaHD]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HCkokKrqzxQ/U5kwzjFrfrI/AAAAAAAATUc/8zAzRkXtMzQ/s1600/Ridings.png

Battleground Ridings 2014:

{Riding Name} ----- L ---- PC ---- NDP ---- Green

Barrie --------------- 36.6 -- 38.4 -- 18.1 -- 6.0
Brant --------------- 33.3 -- 33.2 -- 28.6 -- 3.5
Burlington ---------- 41.3 -- 39.7 -- 14.9 -- 2.8
Cambridge ---------- 35.9 -- 34.6 -- 23.4 -- 5.3
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - 46.5 -- 42.4 -- 5.9 -- 3.4 (Holiday and Milczyn's race)
Niagara Falls -------- 19.1 -- 38.2 -- 39.2 -- 2.1
Oshawa ------------ 17.1 -- 41.9 -- 37.5 -- 3.5
Ottawa-Orleans ----- 44.6 -- 41.1 -- 11.2 -- 2.1
Ottawa West-Nepan -- 42.4 -- 39.4 -- 13.9 -- 3.5
Parkdale-High Park ---- 36.8 -- 14.7 -- 42.6 -- 4.2
Sudbury ------------ 38.8 -- 14.9 -- 41.2 -- 3.6
Trinity-Spadina ----- 37.9 -- 16.4 -- 38.4 -- 5.8
York Center -------- 44.9 -- 41.5 -- 11.2 -- 1.9

 

[travis3000]

What's encouraging is that FORUM's new poll, they surveyed 1050 people June 11th (day before election) and Libs have a 6 point lead which is steady to their poll on June 10th. This would be a firm Liberal victory. Also, EKOS's poll done yesterday exclusively shows a similar LIBERAL lead. Those are the only polls that did extensive surveying yesterday and both show the Liberals winning.

The Ipsos Reid poll was the ONLY ONE showing the NDP polling over 25% so it's tempting to discount it and dates all the way back to June 6th so some of the data is old.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Well it's game day. Good Luck.

 

[Southcore]

I'm not buying this statistical three way tie nonsense...there is 0% chance the NDP gets more than 25 seats.

Prediction: 55 seat Liberal majority.

 

[WislaHD]

Yah I am not buying it either.

Happy to see CP24 to be reporting with it this morning though. It will incite Liberal and NDP voters to go to the polls.

 

[jje1000]

A weighted average of all of those final ON polls makes it L 36 C 32 N 25 among *eligible* voters; C 36 L 35 N 24 among *likely* voters.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/476903026423115776

Rumors abound... but if you don't want that outcome, remember to vote!

SOURCE: Globe Editorial Board endorsed Wynne Liberals, was overruled
Jesse Brown's picture Jesse Brown • June 11, 2014


A highly-placed source within the Globe and Mail has leaked the following item to CANADALAND:

The Globe and Mail Editorial Board unanimously agreed to endorse a minority Liberal government for the Ontario provincial election but was overruled at deadline by Editor-in-Chief David Walmsley. Walmsley held the section up at noon last Friday for over two hours, costing the budget-strapped and job-slashing Globe tens of thousands of dollars as Editorial Board editor Tony Keller gnashed his teeth and squeezed out a forced endorsement for Tim Hudak's Conservatives.

The Globe newsroom was in miserable spirits today as Walmsley's honeymoon came to an end. It is widely felt that Walmsley was carrying water for publisher Philip Crawley, who in turn was carrying out the orders of the Globe-controlling Thomson family, whose interests would be best served by a Conservative government.

Staffers have been seething since Friday, yet policy states that the final decision of the Editorial Board does belong to the Editor-in-Chief, and any insurrection was contained within the Globe. But tempers boiled over today when Walmsley held forth in a Globe Now video, explaining the thoughtful, throrough and principled process that led the Board to the Hudak endorsement:

Q.How does the Globe and Mail go about giving an endorsement?

Walmsley: "It's a significant process that's quite sophisticated and it goes on really from before election begins, there's a discussion among the board...we see the platforms, we study them, we convene a series of meetings...we keep an open mind throughout the process...we had meetings with each of the leaders, and out of that we came to a conclusion and decided that Tim Hudak was the person to endorse in this occasion, the Conservatives."

According to CANADALAND's source, every word of the above is true until the name Tim Hudak is mentioned. The Globe's Ed Board put weeks of work and thought into arriving at the Wynne endorsement, and they are now baffled as to why they even bothered. This sentiment is shared throughout the newsroom. It was more than one staffer could take, to stand by passively as Walmsley piously held forth about the "certain values" that "the Globe and Mail stands for" while seemingly speaking on behalf of journalists he second-guessed and overruled at the behest of his masters.

CANADALAND's source points out a Facebook post issued by the Globe and Mail on Friday morning, promising the announcement of the Editorial Board's endorsement by noon. The post was later edited (the original fortunately saved by Google Cache) to push the release back to 1pm. The actual didn't appear until 2:40pm.

For a decision that, as Walmsley describes it, was weeks, even months in the making, it sure seems like there was a mad scramble at the end to deliver it.

http://canadalandshow.com/article/source-globe-editorial-board-endorsed-wynne-liberals-was-overruled

If this is true, a gigantic smudge on the reputation of the Globe, as it shows that corporate interests overrule carefully made decisions. It raises questions of how exactly Hudak would benefit the Thompson family. A shame this wasn't leaked earlier...

 

[travis3000]

So if LIKELY voters prevail... it's a Hudak minority. If ELIGIBLE voters win it's a Liberal minority or possibly majority. I know the PC supporters are VERY dedicated to get the polls. This could really go either way. Should be interesting.

 

[nfitz]

So if LIKELY voters prevail... it's a Hudak minority. If ELIGIBLE voters win it's a Liberal minority or possibly majority. I know the PC supporters are VERY dedicated to get the polls. This could really go either way. Should be interesting.

Depends on the likely voter model. EKOS shows the Liberals in a majority situation with their likely voter model, Ipsos has a Tory minority, and Abacus is too close to call. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2014#General_opinion_polls Clearly someone will be wrong.

Canada308's final numbers are interesting. The % is extremely close to the last vote, and the seat count is almost identical to dissolution. It will be ironic if we go through all this, and we are right back where we started ...

 

[gabe]

My Dad and I will be voting Liberal for the first time ever. I'm NDP and my dad is an old school Conservative. We both can't stand Hudak. In my ridding NDP doesn't stand much of a chance, so I'm going to support the Libs this time around and hope the NDP has a new leader for the next election.