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2014 Ontario Provincial Election

I'm hoping that the NDP gets eviscerated for calling this stupid election and betraying the left wing. My wife's a lifelong NDP supporter but will be voting Liberal this time around. I'm hoping many others do the same.
 
Maybe this is why Wynne has been so aggressively asking NDP folks to support the Liberals? Perhaps their internal polling matches Ipos work?

last poll of campaign.JPG


I do find it funny how all politicians like to remind us the only poll that matters is the one on election day and then as soon as a poll comes out that looks good for them they are blasting it out to us in any form of media we can get.
 

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Wow. That is a massive surge for the NDP. This could suggest why Horwath spent time in Kingston, Brampton, Etobicoke and York in the last 48 hours - Horwath's focus on "pocket book" issues like tax breaks on hydro bills could be resonating with traditionally non-NDP constituencies.
 
innsertnamehere said:
its a singular poll, another one that came out today had the NDP at 17%.
Click to expand...

I get that....but since none of us know what the result was and either one of any singular poll could actually be correct and we know that the Liberals (particularly their leader) has engaged in an unusually aggressive public appeal for another party's supporters (NDP) to vote for them and we know from experience that all parties have their own internal polling going on that only they know the results of.....I was just wondering out loud if this poll somehow mirrors/echos what the Liberal party is seeing in their polling.
 
TOareaFan said:
It may just be confusion caused by sentence structure but the use of the word "again" in that paragraph seems to suggest that you blame "Milton" for, both, Rob Ford and the Leafs.....is that what you are saying?
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I totally effed up that joke. I meant to say Mimico. I am a self proclaimed stat geek not a geography geek lol

I have a hard time buying what Ipsos is selling this entire election. First out of the gate they had the PC at 40% with a ten point lead over the Liberals, they only ones with such numbers. Then the debates happen and the Ipsos guys were all over Bell media telling how amazing Hudak was and how Wynne is in huge trouble and how Horwath didn't matter. Now they have it tighter and now claiming the NDP is at 30& in eligible AND LIKELY voters. Don't even get me started with their large discrepancy between likely and eligible voters. They are literally placing bets on both sides. It like a sports prediction of Rangers AND Kings depends on who "shows up"

Well my last post said I wanted to wait for another poll to come out with similar numbers as Forum yesterday (Libs +7) for me to pick the Liberals more than a couple and today it happened with Ekos coming out with (Libs +7). Today also had the debut of Angus (who had a average 2011 election success, about the same success as Ekos) Angus as Libs up +4 in eligible voters. Abacus also came out with a poll, with pretty much the same numbers as it had during the weekend. My data analysis of eligible voters are Lib 38, PC 33, NDP 23 and Grn 5. If we are looking at the likely voter numbers (which again I am not a fan of as there's no history of how successful this is on any of the sites I get Libs 37, PC 35, NDP 22 and Grn 5

Eligible voters. Ranked by success of 2011 (removed Nanos due to not being updated since May)
Forum (Jun 9) Libs 42^... PC 35v... NDP 19^... Grn 3v
Abacus (Jun 11) Libs 35^... PC 32^... NDP 26v... Grn 6^
Angus (Jun 10) Libs 36... PC 32.... NDP 26... Grn 5
Ekos (Jun 10) Libs 37^. PC 30v... NDP 22^.. Grn 7v
Ipsos (Jun 11) Libs 33v... PC 31v... NDP 30^... Oth 5^
 
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So anyone hear about the rumors that the 'Decline your Vote' campaign is really headed by a Conservative?
 
Well Ipsos is either really going to have their credibility called into question, or they will stand out as the only pollster that "saw it coming."

Hard to believe the NDP is at 38% in Toronto.
 
King of Kensington said:
Well Ipsos is either really going to have their credibility called into question, or they will stand out as the only pollster that "saw it coming."

Hard to believe the NDP is at 38% in Toronto.
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Surely folks must see that a vote for the NDP is a vote for the PCs. That, and with Horvath rejecting the most NDP friendly budget in decades, makes me wonder why anyone who doesn't want Hudak would vote NDP.
 
I don't get how the NDP can be at 17% in the EKOS poll but 30% in the Ipsos Reid poll. Makes no sense. If IPSOS turns out to be correct then we are headed for a Conservative MINORITY with a possibility of a NDP party as opposition. If EKOS or FORUM are correct we are heading for a LIBERAL MAJORITY. If Abacus/Angus Reid are correct then we are headed for a weak liberal MINORITY.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
Surely folks must see that a vote for the NDP is a vote for the PCs. That, and with Horvath rejecting the most NDP friendly budget in decades, makes me wonder why anyone who doesn't want Hudak would vote NDP.
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It all depends where you live

If you live in Scarborough or Etobicoke...a vote for the NDP is a vote for the PCs
If you live in Mississauga a vote for the NDP is a vote for the PCs

However if you live in Niagara, Welland, Timmins, etc. then a vote for the Liberals is a vote for the PCs because the NDP is more likely to win those seats.
 
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