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2014 Ontario Provincial Election

Anyone want to make a prediction?

I'm going to say a Liberal minority: 45 seats for the Liberals, 41 for the Tories and 21 for the NDP.

The Tories pick up a few seats mostly in Eastern Ontario but lose Holyday loses in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. I don't think he can survive in a general based on the overall trend.

The NDP loses Trinity-Spadina and Davenport to the Liberals, but picks up Sudbury and Windsor West.
 
Anyone want to make a prediction?
Sure. First off, I think you are right. The NDP will lose both of those urban Toronto seats which will be crushing for them emotionally, even if they gain the one in Sudbury. I also think Holyday will lose, which is f*ckin' great!

I'm going to be bold and predict a small, but impressive, Liberal majority.
LIB - 56, PC - 40, NDP - 11, Greens - 0.

My longer-term prediction is that Peter Tabuns is the NDP leader a year from now and Hudak is replaced by Frank Klees.

Having said all of the above, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see Hudak as Premier-elect on Friday either.
 
David Dodge on deficits:

http://www.cp24.com/news/don-t-fret-so-much-about-deficits-dodge-advises-1.1862883

Note - this is NOT an endorsement for dramatic expansions of spending in all areas.

AoD

Debt/deficits (either in government or personal levels) are neither inherently evil nor are they inherently good. It is contextual and situational.

A young individual/family starting their asset building stage of life can be excused for taking on debt to buy assets (home, investments, whatever) to build something with the recognition that their income levels are going to increase over time and that managing that debt, and eventually retiring that debt are realistic possibilities. Without realizing it they are actually just performing a discounted cash flow model on their future earnings and using those future earnings to buy something today.

As people mature through their lives, though, the focus should shift to retiring debt as at some point your income potential peaks and then will (in the vast majority of cases) decline into your retirement years.

Similarly, governments that can run deficits/take on debt at appropriate times to stimulate economies, spur growth and generate future income that exceeds the present value of the debt they are taking on. At some point, though, you have reign it in and grow debt slower or, even better, retire debt so that the next time you need that stimulus funding to take place there is the fiscal room to do so.

I think the key comment/remark in that Dodge piece is this:

The aim should not be to get deficits to zero as quickly as possible, but to reduce deficits to below nominal growth in the economy so that deficits become an ever-decreasing share of gross domestic product, he says.

That is not what is happening in Ontario.....our debt is growing (through accumulated deficits) faster than our economy is growing.
 
I am just shocked that anybody wants to talk about Ontario politics that doesn't consist of "What the heck is up with you guys and that crack smoking Mayor". That's the only question I hear, which normally results of me trying to explain the difference of the Toronto they know and the suburbs that voted Ford to usually to a glaze look on their eye. Then the topic goes quickly to the Leafs which I again blame on Milton. :cool:

It may just be confusion caused by sentence structure but the use of the word "again" in that paragraph seems to suggest that you blame "Milton" for, both, Rob Ford and the Leafs.....is that what you are saying?
 
Any guesses as to whether or not weather will have an impact on voting?

It's been shown that Conservatives have an advantage in poor weather, as they will show up to vote regardless of the weather.

They're determined to get revenge and vote Liberals out of power. Then again, are others so scared of Hudak that they'll be determined to vote in order to prevent him from getting in?

Dr. BRAD GOMEZ (Department of Political Science, Florida State University): For every inch of rain that a county receives above its average rainfall, turnout decreases roughly about one percentage point. And that reduction in turn out was for the benefit of the Republican party.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96476912


My Murphy's law detector estimates that we will get a Hudak by tomorrow evening.

But that's the worst-case scenario. IMO Wynne could get the votes she needs to win by simply making a last-ditch promise to eliminate the Beer Store.
 
Anyone want to make a prediction?

I'm going to say a Liberal minority: 45 seats for the Liberals, 41 for the Tories and 21 for the NDP.

The Tories pick up a few seats mostly in Eastern Ontario but lose Holyday loses in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. I don't think he can survive in a general based on the overall trend.

The NDP loses Trinity-Spadina and Davenport to the Liberals, but picks up Sudbury and Windsor West.

I predict the same for Trinity-Spadina, Davenport, and also Parkdale-High Park. Hoping Holyday loses in Etobicoke-Lakeshore too, the numbers currently favor the Liberals.

Sudbury is very tight between Liberals and NDP. Liberals sitting at 40% with NDP at 39% today, this one will be a toss-up.

I'm predicting Ottawa West-Nepean will change to Liberal hands, this is one of the ridings where the Ottawa LRT phase 2 is supposed to go through I believe.

Shame that Dufferin-Caledon has taken a swing over to the PC's. I was hoping for there to be one Green seat at Queen's Park this time. They don't look to be winning Guelph either.
 
SO that's Wynn's plan? Do much of nothing and hope the budget forecasts are correct and that revenue will grow faster than spending, enabling the deficit to be eliminated? You do realize that the budget is a partisan document right? It's specifically written to put the gov't in a good light.
You do realise that it's costed in far more detail than anything the NDP or PCs have put out.

As for ridings ... NDP might lose more than Trinity-Spadina and Davenport. I suspect Toronto-Danforth is safe ... but I wouldn't be surprised if Beaches-East York and Parkview-High Park also flips Liberal, or are at least very close.

And then there's Bramalea-Gore-Malton. I have no comprehension of what happened there in 2011 - so I daredn't predict what happens now.
 
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I think the key comment/remark in that Dodge piece is this:

That is not what is happening in Ontario.....our debt is growing (through accumulated deficits) faster than our economy is growing.

Wait a minute, the Dodge comments are meant to be taken as together, not chopped up in chunks and nitpicked for bits and pieces that supports your view.

AoD
 
You do realise that it's costed in far more detail than anything the NDP or PCs have put out.

As for ridings ... NDP might lose more than Trinity-Spadina and Davenport. I suspect Toronto-Danforth is safe ... but I wouldn't be surprised if Beaches-East York and Parkview-High Park also flips Liberal, or are at least very close.

And then there's Bramalea-Gore-Malton. I have no comprehension of what happened there in 2011 - so I daredn't predict what happens now.

I agree that Danforth is the only Toronto riding I can say the NDP holds with near certainty. Jagmeet Singh I think will hang on because of his personal popularity, not Andrea Horwath.

The NDP at this point is trying to counter the narrative by having "momentum rallies" in places like Brantford and Sarnia, to give the appearance of confidence. Since they're likely to lose Toronto seats while their Hamilton, Niagara, Windsor and Northern seats are pretty safe, why not?
 
Wait a minute, the Dodge comments are meant to be taken as together, not chopped up in chunks and nitpicked for bits and pieces that supports your view.

AoD

What?

I read the whole thing...you linked the whole thing....I was simply pointing out what, to me, was a very important sentence. I tend to agree with Dodge on this.....that debt at the right time is ok to take on. I just think that this is the time for Ontario to be reigning it in and all I did was point out that in Dodge's balanced view of debt he makes a comment that suggests he would agree with me on the Ontario debt situation.

As I have said multiple times during this election discussion.....I have never been critical of the current government's decision to run deficits and take on debt during/just after the "great recession"......what I am highly critical of is that they have not, as most all jurisdictions have, trimmed/cut/eliminated their deficits and, in fact, are now increasing the deficit at the most inopportune time and have no real plan to balance the budget (wishing for it to be balanced does not make it so)....we are, as I pointed out, growing the debt faster than we are growing the economy.
 
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Did you hear that in London Ont there are stories of the PC candidate giving Liberal sign homeowners a fake election location letter, just like the federal Pierre Poutine. They got away with it federally, why not do it here. Disgusting.


The only way for them to win is voter suppression tactics. Pretty disgusting. Also why would the PC's need to send letters anyway. All citizens get election cards with the polling stations listed on them.
 

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