Heres my opinion on the matter. And I know it will be unpopular around here. Plus, note I am a train nerd and love trains.
Most of those routes, are better served by buses. Some like the Churchill route still exist because there are no roads, but there is little gained in these low density areas that a train will bring over a frequent bus route.
The exception is the Canadian having a more southerly route through Calgary etc. The Canadian should move back to its original route, with a high speed train between Calgary and Edmonton, and perhaps a branch that comes off of the Canadian Winnipeg to Edmonton as well.
That being said bus services in Canada have been gutted as well, but I really don't see the advantages of rail in these tiny bedroom communities that the old lines served.
The issue is that a train that is once every few days is not for transportation. It is silly that I live within a reasonable distance of the Canadian, and I am close enough that I can get to Toronto within a reasonable time, but I cannot use it for a weekend trip as it does not run enough to use it. There are others like me who would use it for trips like that, but cannot because it does not run often enough.
Another issue is the simple fact that cutting one service to add elsewhere makes no sense. Service should stay on the existing routes, but add service along the routes you mention as well.
I asked the same question in a different forum and the answer was essentially reliability. The due to weather conditions the roads are not reliable enough for bus service in the North. Train is able to go through severe weather situations where the bus cannot.
When I looked at the subsidy costs for the Ontario Northlander, it actually wasn't much ($25m/annually) so running a national train network actually shouldn't be that bad (especially if VIA were to run on it's own track?). At the very least, I look at preserving these communities as insurance for the country.
A train does not stop for a car accident. A train does not stop for a blizzard. Ever see a major highway closed for 12 hours and no other way around it? This reminds me of when the Nipigon River Bidge failed a few years ago. There is no road route around it in Canada. A train running the old CP Canadian route would have easily been utilized. Southern ON doesn't face that kind of issue. If the 401 is closed along the entire route, you could make your way around it.
It is true that trains are more reliable in bad weather, but at what cost? Trains are significantly more expensive to run than buses and if there is less than a bus load of people on board, either the ticket prices become exorbitant or the government will be on the hook for huge annual subsidies.
The Northlander ran 6 days a week, which works out to about 313 days a year, so that is a subsidy just shy of $40,000 per train each way. Even if there was an average of 100 people on board (likely an over estimate), that works out to a government subsidy of about $400 per passenger, each way, in addition the whatever fare they paid.
I wouldn't trivialize the cost of maintaining track to any reasonable standard (a passenger train crawling along at 15mph (24 km/h) is not going to cut it). The Northlander ran on track that was also being used by Ontario Northland for freight. It is only economical if VIA is using it many times a day (like with HFR). For routes that will only see at most 1 train a day each way, those costs will be significantly higher than using another railway's track.
None of ONR owned track is that low of speed. Someone else can give you the proper one, but it is not that slow.
I thought along the same lines which led to my question about using frequent buses instead of trains.
The estimate for Northlander was around a $200-$400 per passenger subsidy.
An annual $25 million dollar subsidy isn't bad for a risk mitigation perspective. Enabling the existence of many communities may pay dividends in the future. You don't need em until you need em.
With the way people are leaving the big cities for smaller towns with a yard at a fraction of the cost of their condo, having good rail connections to the big city will be what help these places grow.
How many snow days are there in a year are there where the bus would be cancelled but the train would run? It would be cheaper to pay for hotels for those who's bus is cancelled because of inclement weather than it would be to subsidize a train all year round.
Don't get me wrong, like
@robmausser, I am a train nerd and love trains, but having rail lines heavily subsidized for sentimental reasons or the very occasional trip cancellation doesn't make sense.
Part of the problem with the Northlander, and other non Corridor trains seems to be the same thing - the schedule. For instance, the Northlander used to be a night train, arriving in Toronto in the morning. This saved many people a hotel room.
A friend of mine wanted to visit me form Montreal. No matter how he tried to plan it, he was stuck in a hotel for a night in Toronto. That shouldn't be the case.
As far as snow days, or other incidents, figure at least 10 for the winter and a few more when roads decide to collapse like they did a few years ago around the Soo.
/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/opinion/editorials/2015/05/04/harpers-pre-election-ad-blitz-is-an-abuse-of-taxpayer-dollars-editorial/ads.jpg)
