Transit City Plan

[superman]

Any idiot can propose building whatever subway line they want. But the "plan"(and even calling it a plan is a stretch) to pay for it is just a pie in the sky fantasy that simply won't work, and even if it could then there is no need to get the private sector involved as the city is still paying for it either way.

This is just like his NFL idea, there is nothing concrete behind the idea beyond Ford yapping on about the private sector.

I don't think taking on debt is an idea that "won't work" as long as there is an appetite for it from the city - they can take on as much debt as they want, whether from private or from public sources.

My argument is that now that Ford has given Torontonians an option of a subway on Sheppard (without the loss of the Eglinton and Scarborough line). The optics will work out good for him. The fiscal conservatives will be silenced since they are under Ford's wings and Toronto is given the chance to have better transit and a way to pay it off.

On the bright side, the Eglinton LRT can now probably be extended since there is money freed up.

 

[MetroMan]

^ Anybody can take on debt. The thing is that Ford was all against piling on more debt. His entire campaign was based on bashing Miller for spending more than we had. Ford would tell anybody who would listen: "Spend within your means". Taking on $4B debt for a subway that we don't need is a huge mistake. Will we get $4B worth of benefits out of this line? Maybe in 40 years. Right now, transit experts have determined that an LRT line would suffice here for the next 20 to 30 years.

Future mayors are going to be cleaning this up for decades to come.

 

[Solid Snake]

It will take years to repay the subway but once the cost has been paid, the city keeps the ongoing revenue. Transit planning is "LONG TERM". In the long term, with the surtax and increase the density of Sheppard Avenue East and West combined with increase in land value which means higher taxes, more businesses, paying higher taxes as well, the city will benefit later... In economy, we call that an INVESTMENT.

With some people it's either paid 100% by someone else or nothing...Guess what? That's why we didn't have any subway extensions for decades. This is actually a good idea. There was an article saying that although building subway tunnels will always be expensive, you can turn Subway stations into GOLD MINES. This is a variation of this.

If this plan succeeds,

-Sheppard gets built
-Eglinton will most likely be FULLY ROW
-Finch LRT might happen

Better than Transit City by far.

 

[GraphicMatt]

I said this earlier in a blog post, but I'll repeat it here: if subways are such automatic goldmines, isn't the city foregoing hundreds of millions of dollars of potential tax revenue per year by leaving areas surrounding existing subway stations underdeveloped?

 

[Solid Snake]

I said this earlier in a blog post, but I'll repeat it here: if subways are such automatic goldmines, isn't the city foregoing hundreds of millions of dollars of potential tax revenue per year by leaving areas surrounding existing subway stations underdeveloped?

Good point. With proper zoning and land planification, they can be a gold mine. If you just build a station and don't do anything with the area around it and above it, it becomes a money pit.

This is Toronto's problem...This is the right approach for the 21st century. If we continue to wait for Ottawa, Queen's Park or the Olympics to build subway lines, we'll never get them

 

[Dan416]

I'm not sure the city should take on debt to build Sheppard. I'd rather do the same thing and do it with the DRL, given the choice. But I'll still take this over nothing. And I'd DEFINITELY take this over the SELRT.

 

[MetroMan]

It will take years to repay the subway but once the cost has been paid, the city keeps the ongoing revenue.

No they don't. This doesn't end with the city paying off the debt incurred to build the subway. Operating costs for the Sheppard subway exceed revenue. Transit experts have determined that a Sheppard subway would not be profitable for at least the next 30 years.

-Sheppard gets built
-Eglinton will most likely be FULLY ROW
-Finch LRT might happen

Better than Transit City by far.

Sure. It's better for transit enthusiasts and for people who will ride it. But it will create major problems for the city's finances for decades to come. When an LRT can satisfy the demand for Sheppard transit in the next few decades and be paid entirely by the province, I say Transit City is the best overall plan.

I won't deny, I would love to see a ton of full subway lines being built all over the city, but the reality is that money doesn't come out of thin air and the city will suffer in other ways because of the economic problems incurring this kind of debt will provoke and the money losing ongoing operating costs that the TTC will be stuck with for decades.

 

[caltrane74]

Wow, so the province is going to take all the transit city money and put the Eglinton Line Underground. 8.5 billion dollars for one massive line that doesnt get in the way of cars. Awesome.. Rob Fords Wet Dream 'come' True.

 

[Filip]

$8.5 billion for an underground streetcar? Jesus.

 

[gweed123]

I suspect this is the case. Negotiations with Metrolinx did not go well, so this is the mayor taking his ball and going home. I'd be surprised to see quick movement on this after the announcement.

What type of movement are you anticipating?

 

[DTGeek]

It will take years to repay the subway but once the cost has been paid, the city keeps the ongoing revenue. Transit planning is "LONG TERM". In the long term, with the surtax and increase the density of Sheppard Avenue East and West combined with increase in land value which means higher taxes, more businesses, paying higher taxes as well, the city will benefit later... In economy, we call that an INVESTMENT.

One point that I feel is way too often overlooked in this debate is that in principle it could make perfect sense to build the LRT now, and then convert it to subway 40 years later when it's needed. For argument's sake, let's say LRT costs $1B and the subway costs $4B and ignore maintenance cost. You would end up paying 25% more to build both, but it's highly likely that 40 years of technological advance will mean that a subway you build in 2050 for the same relative (fraction of GDP) price will be far more advanced, more efficient to construct, and cheaper to maintain. You'll pay 25% more than if you built the subway now, but if you built the subway now you'd probably have to pay a lot more than 25% in upgrades to bring it up to 2050 standards.

Not only could it make perfect financial sense to build LRT now and upgrade later, but it can also be less risky because you're not banking on accurate predictions of what usage will look like 40+ years in the future.

IMHO, when you're talking about choosing between alternatives with a 5-10x cost difference, you have to make the decision based on their short- or medium-term benefits.

 

[jeffreym]

Why does the vehicle type matter?

Is it going to be slower than a subway car? No.

 

[EnviroTO]

It seems clear to me what is going to happen with the statements that have been released today. The underground portion of the Eglinton line is going ahead, extended underground. Finch West is dead (no surprise). There is a high probability the SRT will interline with the Eglinton Line. Sheppard is for the most part dead... it will sit waiting for some company loaded with cash to invest on a subway line in a way that will satisfy city hall bean counters. Having watched the city try to find a favourable private investor for Union Station but then go it alone (still managing to make a lease agreement that seems on the low side for the retail space), and watching for more than a decade for the federal and provincial governments to find an investment deal for the Air Rail Link, I just don't see how a favourable deal for funding the subway will be found. Landowners are complaining about the cost of 1 year of Metropass and Ford is sympathetic. Count developers out of the funding altogether. Sheppard was a subway built for political reasons... that won't translate to private investors who care solely about the economics of the investment. Sheppard will be in limbo indefinitely.

Summary: Eglinton and SRT will happen. Sheppard will not be officially dead but will be in limbo... virtually dead. Finch West will officially be dead. DRL... what DRL? Nobody mentioned anything about a DRL.

 

[MetroMan]

$8.5 billion for an underground streetcar? Jesus.

You discredit yourself every time you say something like that. LRT is not a streetcar. It's misinformation spread by the anti Transit City lobby to influence those ignorant on the matter. For practical purposes, the Eglinton LRT will be little different than a subway. Technical specifications will be different but in the end it will serve the the transit needs of that corridor within a reasonable budget and timeline. A subway of that length would have to be built in the span of decades due to the cost. LRT accomplishes the same for less money.

 

[nfitz]

I don't see how council is going to oppose upgrading Sheppard to a subway line (which was always the plan before Miller scrapped it) while the Eglinton and Scarborough line stays the same. The only thing that is yet to be seen is what will happen to Finch.

Really? I can see lots of reasons.

1) Increased operating costs - where is the money coming from to pay for that? One councillor has already asked this.
2) Lost of rapid transit on Finch West and Sheppard east of Kennedy
3) Significant densification to residential Scarborough neighbourhoods.
4) The city would have to take on a huge amount of debt. There are other proposed subway lines that would carry much more traffic.