Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

[Rainforest]

Maybe the penny-pinchers should consider doing shutdowns of the Sheppard Subway after a certain hour or Sundays, like they did on the University Subway? Until the Sheppard East LRT opens for operation. Show the "subway, subway, subway" people how to really save "gravy".

IMO, this is a sensible option if it saves money.

The route is operated by a night bus at night hours, anyway. Why not extend the "night" model to late evenings, if the bus can easily handle the load.

Even when Sheppard LRT opens, a late evening / night bus can replace both the subway and the LRT during the periods of low ridership.

 

[Rainforest]

I imagine it includes ongoing capital investments roughly (1%/year of current replacement value; or $25M/year). I don't have the exact quote but did it imply per rider (2 trips per day assumed) or per trip? I might believe $5 per trip (operating and ongoing capital) which could become doubled to $10 per person; total around $78M/year of a $2B/year operating + SOGR budget (4%).

Might get $17 if you include the initial $1B capital investment + interest (city debt).

Either way, it's not strictly an operating subsidy number.

Thanks for your explanation; now it makes sense.

The subsidy of $5 per ride sounds realistic; it becomes $10 per "typical daily rider" (essentially a 2-ride pack).

When the interest and capital amortization costs are included, it could become $17 per "daily rider" (or $8.50 per ride).

 

[Rainforest]

^ Yet, I think it is more useful to quote all costs per a single ride.

All other financial numbers (fares, operating costs, subsidies etc) are always quoted either per a single ride, or yearly per the whole route. I've never heard of them being reported per a 2-ride pack.

Including capital costs is technically possible, but I think it is rather useless as a policy indicator. The reason is that all modern rail projects (LRT, subways, and RER / SmartTrack) will end up with a high cost per ride if capital is included. If, say, Finch LRT comes at $6 per ride, SmartTrack at $7, Sheppard subway at $8.50, and Eglinton LRT $10 per ride; does that mean all of them are justified? Or, all of them are too expensive?

The cost of capital is accounted for when the funds for transit construction are allocated. It is well understood that the goal is convenience of the riders and sustainability of the city; nobody expects those funds to be repaid from the fare box or assumed by the transit agency.

 

[rbt]

Including capital costs is technically possible, but I think it is rather useless as a policy indicator. The reason is that all modern rail projects (LRT, subways, and RER / SmartTrack) will end up with a high cost per ride if capital is included. If, say, Finch LRT comes at $6 per ride, SmartTrack at $7, Sheppard subway at $8.50, and Eglinton LRT $10 per ride; does that mean all of them are justified? Or, all of them are too expensive?

You have a point, but if another option like BRT came in at $2 and was able to carry the load, then all are too expensive.

One challenge with excluding capital costs in such a comparison is it allows for an blank-cheque. You might be able to spend $1B to save $10k per year. Absolutely not worth it until you make the $10k count and give the $1B a free pass. TTC kinda has this with SOGR and Operating costs. Historically it has been easy for them to get SOGR dollars, so they've gradually moved more and more things into that bucket and out of the operating bucket, such as escalator/elevator maintenance.

Very few transit services have an operating/capital split like the TTC, yet nobody normalizes for this when looking at operating subsidy.

 

[Jonny5]

Get out your crayons and maps! Tory hasn't wasted enough time on transit fantasy maps just yet.

The Sheppard Subway Extension is back!

 

[Cobra]

East or West I wonder...

West to Downsview would meet far less resistance

 

[sixrings]

I voted specifically for Tory because I thought he had the best chance to beat ford. My second reason was because I thought if he had the job he would use information to make decisions. It sure seems he is more willing to ignore stats to appease voters with fantasy plans. I will be writing him a letter with my disappointment of him.

 

[Jonny5]

East or West I wonder...

West to Downsview would meet far less resistance

"The Ward 39 (Scarborough-Agincourt) councillor said he’ll refuse to back the one-stop subway extension unless the mayor and others support another look at extending the Sheppard subway."

I think we can guess which way based on that.

 

[pstogios]

I voted specifically for Tory because I thought he had the best chance to beat ford. My second reason was because I thought if he had the job he would use information to make decisions. It sure seems he is more willing to ignore stats to appease voters with fantasy plans. I will be writing him a letter with my disappointment of him.

I had the same reasoning. To me story was the Mayoe this city needed after the chaos of the Ford era.

I've already voiced my disappointment in him numerous times via email and Twitter. I haven't had even a courtesy reply. Yet another reason why I'm disappointed in him. I'm not sure whether it's even worth writing him sixrings; he's not listening.

 

[Cobra]

No one on council can handle a little bit of criticism. They never reply when you call them out on something.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Well this is the straw that broke the camels back. I voted for Tory in the mayoral election, I will be voting to get rid of him in 2018.

 

[Cobra]

Jennifer Pagliaro@jpags
11 mins ago
So, the mayor's office has now confirmed that the transit debate is being delayed until tomorrow morning. Budget direction now up first.

FYI

He better have magically found money or announced that a gold or diamond mine was found in the city, otherwise...tomorrow promises to be very ugly...

 

[cplchanb]

I had the same reasoning. To me story was the Mayoe this city needed after the chaos of the Ford era.

I've already voiced my disappointment in him numerous times via email and Twitter. I haven't had even a courtesy reply. Yet another reason why I'm disappointed in him. I'm not sure whether it's even worth writing him sixrings; he's not listening.

You'll find that even the most promising of candidates will face the reality of politics and bureaucracy as soon as they step into power. I honestly do believe he came here with good intentions
and to effect change as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, unlike a majority govt, there is no party whip so city councillors have been free to bicker as they please. That is the major reason why things just dont work in this city:
self interests and egoistic councillors who put their own benefits over the greater good. I guess this also pertains to NIMBYs as well.... either way, Tory has pretty much been shoe strung by his own council.
At least he wasnt polarising as Ford was and actually pushed through with several projects such as accelerating Presto. I can attribute a large part of the delays and loss of funding for many transit projects on the former mayor.

As for your twitter post, I seriously doubt that Tory actually replies to most of the messages himself, more like he has his PR team do that.

 

[rbt]

You'll find that even the most promising of candidates will face the reality of politics and bureaucracy as soon as they step into power. I honestly do believe he came here with good intentions
and to effect change as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, unlike a majority govt, there is no party whip so city councillors have been free to bicker as they please. That is the major reason why things just dont work in this city:
self interests and egoistic councillors who put their own benefits over the greater good. I guess this also pertains to NIMBYs as well.... either way, Tory has pretty much been shoe strung by his own council.
At least he wasnt polarising as Ford was and actually pushed through with several projects such as accelerating Presto. I can attribute a large part of the delays and loss of funding for many transit projects on the former mayor.

While all this is true, Tory is not just trying to get votes at Council level but also at the provincial level. Liberal MPs in that area hated the Sheppart LRT proposal from day 1 and have a strong preference for a subway too, but aren't fully willing to fund it yet. Sheppard LRT has been dead since the first deferral; long live the bus.

This update will find the Sheppard subway extension costs $5B (maybe more) but I bet it ends up on Metrolinx's long-term plan (say after DRL phase 2, so 2045?)

TTC subway expansion is seeing the same games that NASA goes through. Remember the Constellation program (Bush's moonbase announced in 2004 that killed off all short-term projects?) The game is to defer funding anything until you're out of power; let the next guy in charge kill your ridiculous spending program that occurred fully under the next guys authority.

This isn't about building the subway, it's ensuring the LRT stays dead without actually saying you're keeping the bus.

 

[cplchanb]

Can somebody refresh me ...what is the scope of the original LRT plan? ROW or mixed in and if the former, was there even enough space to fit in 2 more lanes? Or were they
going to just cut 1 lane per side?