Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

[W. K. Lis]

Excluding the zoo, a park-n-ride & a kiss-n-ride & Durham Transit bus transfer bays could be attached close to one of the east most stops of a LRT for Durham region passengers.

 

[drum118]

Operational loss of $10 m per year is believable.

However, that translates to a subsidy per ride: $10 m / 15 m rides = $0.67 per ride.

Obviously, then the total cost per ride (= fare recovery + subsidy) cannot be $17, or even $10. It should be in the $2 to $4 range.

What it should be and are, are 2 different things. $17 has been used not only by TTC, but by people who know first hand within City Hall.

75% of riders who use the line have already paid their fare elsewhere within the system and that most likely on the low end. Therefore that leaves very few riders paying the revenue to cover the cost ratio.

It has been said by people in the know within TTC that the subway would be close if it came to a major cash crunch for TTC.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Wasn't there talk about closing the subway a few years ago?

I know Sheppard would be first on the chopping block if the TTC ever has budget problems. In fact, I'd rather close or reduce service on Sheppard than impose fare hikes.

 

[nfitz]

Wasn't there talk about closing the subway a few years ago?

It was a publicity stunt by Giambrone, to justify the decision to instead hike fares. TTC staff quickly took the idea off the table when they realized that they'd still have to maintain the mothballed stations, and that they'd have to suddenly find a lot of buses to provide replacement service, costing more than the cost of simply operating the subway.

I know Sheppard would be first on the chopping block if the TTC ever has budget problems. In fact, I'd rather close or reduce service on Sheppard than impose fare hikes.

How do you know that? What is the reference? The TTC seems to think differently.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Sorry, I made a typo in my previous post. That does not say what I wanted it to


What I was saying was that for me, the Sheppard Subway would be first on the chopping block if there was a budget crunch.

 

[Rainforest]

What it should be and are, are 2 different things. $17 has been used not only by TTC, but by people who know first hand within City Hall.

75% of riders who use the line have already paid their fare elsewhere within the system and that most likely on the low end. Therefore that leaves very few riders paying the revenue to cover the cost ratio.

It has been said by people in the know within TTC that the subway would be close if it came to a major cash crunch for TTC.

Even if we assume that Sheppard subway does not bring any revenue at all, its cost per ride cannot be $17 or even $10.

If it was $10 per ride, it would mean that TTC spends 9% of its yearly budget to run Sheppard subway. If it was $17, TTC would spend 15% of its yearly budget to run Sheppard subway.

I don't know how they produced that $17 number, but it does not pass a simple sanity test.

 

[mdrejhon]

What it should be and are, are 2 different things. $17 has been used not only by TTC, but by people who know first hand within City Hall.

$17 average per human rider per year, you mean? That sounds like $67M budget divided by Toronto's population, doesn't it?

Sounds more accurate, than per ride.
Two different numbers (cost per ride, versus cost per population)

TTC inefficiencies aside, at ~75% farebox recovery systemwide, average TTC farebox recovery has been vastly superior to most North American municipal transit agencies. Sheppard is definitely quite inefficient by Toronto standards, but as a matter of perspective, Sheppard looks efficient compared to Dallas or Detroit farebox recovery (less than 15%). TTC and Metrolinx are apparently farebox recovery champions in North America. To the point where our worst routes massively outperform a lot of inefficient cities' average farebox recovery.

We should strive to do better, but Sheppard revenue is fortunately not an unmitigated disaster when measured against a typical North American public transit system. Its farebox recovery will continue to improve with an LRT connector from Don Mills to Scarborough. And, eventually, a subway connection to the Spadina line, to 'connect' the U shape.

 

[Rainforest]

Excluding the zoo, a park-n-ride & a kiss-n-ride & Durham Transit bus transfer bays could be attached close to one of the east most stops of a LRT for Durham region passengers.

I'm afraid that the number of passengers transferring from Durham buses will be much lower than the number of zoo visitors using the LRT.

Don Mills subway station is at the other end of the line; nobody will take a Durham bus, then transfer to LRT and spend another 35 - 40 min to reach the subway.

Between Don Mills and Meadowvale, there are no destinations on Sheppard that would be of interest for Durham residents. If they want to reach STC, Centennial College, or UTSC, they will use GO bus or Durham Pulse BRT.

 

[nfitz]

What I was saying was that for me, the Sheppard Subway would be first on the chopping block if there was a budget crunch.

Why if it costs more to run replacement buses than run the subway. where would you get the extra buses?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Why if it costs more to run replacement buses than run the subway. where would you get the extra buses?

Will it cost more? Why would the TTC consider shutting it down if it would cost more?

That said, I would be surprised it it costs more to run replacement buses. Remember, the Sheppard Subway moves less people than the 510 Spadina. When the 510 Spadina was offline for construction, the busses were able to handle it without needing an obscene amount of vehicles.

 

[nfitz]

Will it cost more? Why would the TTC consider shutting it down if it would cost more?

Because they hadn't done the math yet when it came out of Giambrone's mouth. If you recall, they quickly dropped that one from consideration. If you recall, we discussed it here at the time.

That said, I would be surprised it it costs more to run replacement buses. Remember, the Sheppard Subway moves less people than the 510 Spadina. When the 510 Spadina was offline for construction, the buses were able to handle it without needing an obscene amount of vehicles.

The 510 ridership isn't as concentrated at peak as Sheppard. Also, most of the 510 Spadina service is on the 2.5 km from King to Bloor, compared to the 5.5 km from Yonge to Don Mills.

With about 5,000 passengers at peak hour, and about 50 passengers a bus at peak, you'd need about 100 buses an hour. At rush hour, that's about a 45-minute round trip, so you are looking at 75 buses - closer to 85 with spares. Ignoring the capital cost for new buses, and the need of a new bus garage, you need 75 operators. I don't think there's 75 people working on the Sheppard line at rush hour.

 

[howl]

Will it cost more? Why would the TTC consider shutting it down if it would cost more?

That said, I would be surprised it it costs more to run replacement buses. Remember, the Sheppard Subway moves less people than the 510 Spadina. When the 510 Spadina was offline for construction, the busses were able to handle it without needing an obscene amount of vehicles.

Also keep in mind that ridership projections should be based on future potential ridership, not just existing ridership. The Sheppard subway line opened in 2002 and now, 13 years later, there are still a number of massive new developments in the works. Those developments are located on Sheppard only because of the subway.

One way to look at the question of a Sheppard extension is to ask how much potential is there for new redevelopment along that part of the road? and how much do you actually want? If you extend the Sheppard subway you will (eventually) get a lot more redevelopment; if it's a LRT you will get somewhat less redevelopment; and if it's just buses you will get virtually no redevelopment.

The question about transit service in general is more about what we want the City to look like in the future (e.g. where will the new development go) rather than trying to catch up with existing transit shortfalls. If Scarborough wants a subway, either as an extension of the Sheppard or Danforth lines, then they are going to have to accept a lot of new high-density redevelopment in the middle of their suburban wilderness.

 

[nfitz]

Also keep in mind that ridership projections should be based on future potential ridership, not just existing ridership. The Sheppard subway line opened in 2002 and now, 13 years later, there are still a number of massive new developments in the works. Those developments are located on Sheppard only because of the subway.

There isn't much evidence that the growth to date is increasing ridership. If you compare the 2009 daily ridership to the 2013 daily ridership, it has only grown by 550 riders from 47,700 to 48,250. Presuming that each rider travels both ways each day, that's only 225 people.

More shockingly, all that growth was in the first two years (to 49,150 in 2010 and 50,410 in 2011), and it's actually been declining since then, despite some of these new developments coming on line since 2011.

 

[rbt]

Even if we assume that Sheppard subway does not bring any revenue at all, its cost per ride cannot be $17 or even $10.

If it was $10 per ride, it would mean that TTC spends 9% of its yearly budget to run Sheppard subway. If it was $17, TTC would spend 15% of its yearly budget to run Sheppard subway.

I don't know how they produced that $17 number, but it does not pass a simple sanity test.

I imagine it includes ongoing capital investments roughly (1%/year of current replacement value; or $25M/year). I don't have the exact quote but did it imply per rider (2 trips per day assumed) or per trip? I might believe $5 per trip (operating and ongoing capital) which could become doubled to $10 per person; total around $78M/year of a $2B/year operating + SOGR budget (4%).

Might get $17 if you include the initial $1B capital investment + interest (city debt).

Either way, it's not strictly an operating subsidy number.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Cut-n-pasted from Transit Toronto, at this link:

Ridership Grows Slowly

Initially, ridership on the University Subway was lighter than expected. Most passengers found the Yonge Subway to be a more direct route, offering downtown stations closer to their destinations. Trains were often short-turned at Union Station, and finally, on June 23, 1969, the TTC discontinued service entirely after 9:45 p.m. on Mondays to Saturdays and all day on Sundays and holidays. The 5 AVENUE ROAD bus operated a 5B branch between Eglinton and Front Street whenever the University Subway did not operate, with side-jaunts to St. George station to capture passengers from the Bloor Subway. This arrangement remained in place until 1978, when the Spadina Subway opened for service.

Just wondering how the University Subway in 1969 compared with the current Sheppard Subway? After 9:45 pm and on Sundays? What would the passengers numbers be?

Maybe the penny-pinchers should consider doing shutdowns of the Sheppard Subway after a certain hour or Sundays, like they did on the University Subway? Until the Sheppard East LRT opens for operation. Show the "subway, subway, subway" people how to really save "gravy".