MM, from what you've heard, what's your best guess on how the next few days and weeks might play out?
My guess is that the police aren't done with Project Brazen 2. There's an obstruction of justice investigation going on related to the video that Ford allegedly ordered destroyed. There's also all the mountain of circumstantial evidence laid out in the Lisi ITO documents.
I think it depends on public pressure. If this falls away like last time and Ford is allowed to carry on in yet a new normal, then we'll have to wait for the next big event. However as it now appears, the media isn't relenting and even the Sun is all in against Ford this time. Ink is already flowing criticizing the police for lack of charges and increasing public pressure may force the Crown to charge Ford despite less than ideal evidence to do so. At this moment, the optics are not good. Hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars were put in to this investigation, police resources were tied up following the Mayor, the TPS's top detective was on the case and a massive 500 page report was written... for a pot bust of some small time petty drug dealer who lives with his mom? Ford is acting blatantly guilty in the now public surveillance and hasn't been charged. It looks suspiciously like favouritism even though there may be perfectly good reasons why the cops couldn't bust him. Public pressure will force the Crown's hand.
Meanwhile, the unessential information that was redacted out of the ITO is going to be argued for public release as are the wire taps. There's a good chance that at least some of this information will be coming out in the next couple of weeks. Then on December 6th, Lisi is going to be in court again regarding the extortion charge. The formal process will then begin and the media's lawyers are going to start petitioning for the evidence (the videos) to be made public. A strong argument can be made that it is in the public interest that the video be released expeditiously rather than wait for a trial which may only happen sometime after the 2014 election.
If Lisi's case goes to trial, Rob Ford will be subpoenaed to testify as he's a key individual tightly knitted in with Lisi's charge. I say "if" because it looks like Lisi has accepted plea bargains before as he's gotten off lightly on prior criminal charges. I'm not convinced he'll give up Rob Ford and he's seasoned in his dealing with police so he won't crack up and spill all the beans, but he may give them something they want while not overtly ratting out the Mayor.
As early as Monday, we may begin to see more staff defections and a few more councillors will be added to the collection of those openly asking the Mayor to step down. If he doesn't, there was a suggestion in June that City Council defund the Mayor's office which would mean that his entire staff would be laid off. The Office of the Mayor would in essence be shut down, a strong signal that City Council is operating without the Mayor who is Mayor in name only. To further degrade his powers, members of his executive could resign. Quorum for the executive to function is a simple majority. It's perfectly plausible that most of them would quit. I can only see Doug, Nunziata and maybe Norm Kelly staying on until the end. I think the most likely to quit first is Denzil Minan-Wong. He can taste election 2014 and he's already moved his chess pieces away from Rob Ford. I'd watch him next week.
As for the 2014 election, never say never but I'm starting to be feel safe to say that Ford will never be Mayor again. His chances were already slimming down but yesterday's bombshell(s) scared whatever final sane voter was still considering him. It also demolished any chance that any high ranking Conservative is going to run his campaign and that he's going to receive funding and endorsements. Rob Ford is finished politically.
My final prediction which I'm sadly confident that is the most likely to come true: you and I can say with a high degree of certainty that if he doesn't get help, the inevitable end game is that Rob Ford is going to end up dead before we've been able to untangle this mess. He's a 300lb man who leads a highly stressed lifestyle, who doesn't exercise (he barely even walks), with a grossly unhealthy diet, who drinks heavily and does hard drugs. Statistically he won't make it to 50. Taken into his individual context, it wouldn't be pushing it to suggest he won't live another 24 months.
