TOareaFan
Superstar
That sounds suspiciously like another way of saying Subways Subways Subways. Overbuild now because one day you might need it.
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Politics: Tim Hudak's Plan for Ontario if he becomes Premier
- Thread starter Solid Snake
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That sounds suspiciously like another way of saying Subways Subways Subways. Overbuild now because one day you might need it.
Filip
Senior Member
Careful with that slippery slope argument. That's why we're getting an underground streetcar on Eglinton, right?
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Of course it is - except that Hurontario has the development patterns to show intensification in the works (plus additional bonus of linking 2 to 3 growth centres and an entire stretch of Hurontario with redevelopment potential - unlike STC and what, a moribund route with little to no opportunity for redevelopment (even though I tepidly support the extension in subway form).
AoD
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innsertnamehere
Superstar
Exactly, the difference is that Hurontario has an actually possibility and probability of growing into that ridership, Subway ridership numbers are not only much, much more difficult to reach, Eglinton and Sheppard would never reach them within a reasonable timespan. (i.e. over 50 years, where it is better to build an intermediate technology)
TOareaFan
Superstar
but that growth is/was factored into the ridership projections to 2031 and still show it within BRT numbers....no?
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
innsertnamehere:
Now, the saving grace of a BD extension is its' purpose of funnelling riders arriving at STC by other modes (buses, mainly), which is well and good - but I find the merit pales in comparison to the transformative effect a Hurontario LRT will likely provide.
TOareafan:
Ridership projections are just that - remember it is based on a whole series of assumptions that could be wrong, sometime dramatically wrong. Case in point - the development patterns around STC and the type of supporting transit infrastructure it will require. If I am a betting person, I would bet on Hurontario LRT exceeding ridership projections than the other way around.
Besides, since we are on the matter of cost - upsizing the Hurontario case to LRT requires far less of an investment than upsizing the SRT replacement to subway (even though LRT will suffice).
AoD
Now, the saving grace of a BD extension is its' purpose of funnelling riders arriving at STC by other modes (buses, mainly), which is well and good - but I find the merit pales in comparison to the transformative effect a Hurontario LRT will likely provide.
TOareafan:
Ridership projections are just that - remember it is based on a whole series of assumptions that could be wrong, sometime dramatically wrong. Case in point - the development patterns around STC and the type of supporting transit infrastructure it will require. If I am a betting person, I would bet on Hurontario LRT exceeding ridership projections than the other way around.
Besides, since we are on the matter of cost - upsizing the Hurontario case to LRT requires far less of an investment than upsizing the SRT replacement to subway (even though LRT will suffice).
AoD
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innsertnamehere
Superstar
Again, 2031 numbers. I'm talking 2041, 2051 numbers.
Filip
Senior Member
Which is also where a subway becomes amenable on Eglinton, etc... In fact, I don't think we can accurately forecast ridership for any route that far out. I don't think anyone 40 years ago had an even clear idea of where Toronto was going to end up.
It seems that it's ok to use the 'LRT is cheap now' argument for getting subpar technology on Eglinton (at least the central section), but when it's done on an LRT route (Sheppard especially) oh no! Sheppard is well within BRT territory for the next few decades! Again, why was it and continues to be the main priority for an LRT route? It's frankly embarrassing.
Solid Snake
Active Member
It doesn't and won't meet the maximum for BRT based on the 2031 projection according to the report. The LRT borrows the "build it and they'll come" mentality. What's good for any LRT is not good for subways...
Pro-LRT fans are very rigorous on numbers when it's against subways but are eager to bend them when it favors LRT when BRT could do the job...
Double Standards indeed
TOareaFan
Superstar
What are those?
Solid Snake
Active Member
That's right. They don't want to hear that Eglinton was in the subway threshold if the line would have been buried...
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Filip:
The only "sub-par" part of the central portion of Eglinton LRT is the length of the station platforms - which is while short, are still significantly longer than the Canada Line (40-50m vs 100m). There are no reasons why we can expect a much higher level of capacity with judicious modifications and operational changes.
Solid Snake:
Perhaps, but considering capital costs increase significantly as you move up the capacity ladder, there is an increasing need for due diligence.
AoD
The only "sub-par" part of the central portion of Eglinton LRT is the length of the station platforms - which is while short, are still significantly longer than the Canada Line (40-50m vs 100m). There are no reasons why we can expect a much higher level of capacity with judicious modifications and operational changes.
Solid Snake:
Perhaps, but considering capital costs increase significantly as you move up the capacity ladder, there is an increasing need for due diligence.
AoD
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Electrify
Senior Member
But those phase 2 projects I thought didn't have any funding attached to them yet? Aren't they supposed to be funded entirely with the revenue tools? So even if he does cancel them along with any phase 1 projects which don't satisfy his subway fetish, he will still be severely short on cash to build his plan.
Solid Snake
Active Member
He won't find them because they don't exist. Same argument as the Sheppard Subway... "build them and they'll come"
Bad for subways but good for LRTs...
TOareaFan
Superstar
As I have said before, I am very skeptical about the ridership potential of this route in the northern portion of it. I think the south (MCC to PC) makes sense and since (last I heard) it is not going to be a single ride route anyway (ie. there is a forced transfer at MCC between the two halves) I just don't get the need to build both halves now. Build the south and let MiWay and BRT service the northern portion with enhanced/express bus services until it needs more (which I don't think it will).
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