Solid Snake
Active Member
The ridership projections for Hurontario as of 2031 has it within BRT territory. Ottawa's Transitway was at over capacity hence the LRT. Hurontario is not even close to that.
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Politics: Tim Hudak's Plan for Ontario if he becomes Premier
- Thread starter Solid Snake
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The ridership projections for Hurontario as of 2031 has it within BRT territory. Ottawa's Transitway was at over capacity hence the LRT. Hurontario is not even close to that.
Electrify
Senior Member
He is now backtracking on Kitchener, claiming that he was only talking about the GTHA.
That said, his numbers simply don't add up. The province has budgeted $16 billion for initial projects, but some of those projects are completed, almost completed, or beyond the point of no return. The only ones he could possibly stop are:
Viva BRT lanes - $1.4 billion (less the money invested for the completed/near completed lanes between Richmond Hill and Markham)
Finch West LRT - $1 billion
Sheppard LRT - $1 billion
So with less than $3 billion he wants to build the DRL and extend the Sheppard and Yonge subways. If he wants to build more, he will need to raise taxes or move money from other government services.
That said, his numbers simply don't add up. The province has budgeted $16 billion for initial projects, but some of those projects are completed, almost completed, or beyond the point of no return. The only ones he could possibly stop are:
Viva BRT lanes - $1.4 billion (less the money invested for the completed/near completed lanes between Richmond Hill and Markham)
Finch West LRT - $1 billion
Sheppard LRT - $1 billion
So with less than $3 billion he wants to build the DRL and extend the Sheppard and Yonge subways. If he wants to build more, he will need to raise taxes or move money from other government services.
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Solid Snake
Active Member
He didn't mention the Sheppard Subway. He said DRL, Scarborough (who's paid for) and Yonge to Richmond Hill + improve the GO train service. Of course his numbers don't add up. He will have to massively cut somewhere...the big question is where
innsertnamehere
Superstar
2031 is going to be only 10 years after opening..
Also, only some viva lanes can be cancelled. Some have already opened.. By the time he takes office none of them may be able to be cancelled.
TOareaFan
Superstar
I think SS's point is that in 2031 it will still be within BRT operating capacities.
Solid Snake
Active Member
exactly
TOareaFan
Superstar
I think the next phase projects of the Big Move include the following projects that, presumably, Hudak would cancel:
Brampton Queen Street Rapid Transit: 10 km of upgraded transit along Queen Street.
Dundas Street Bus Rapid Transit: 40 km of bus service running in dedicated lanes, connecting Toronto, Mississauga and Halton.
Durham-Scarborough Bus Rapid Transit: 36 km of bus service running in dedicated lanes, connecting Scarborough Centre to downtown Oshawa via Pickering, Ajax and Whitby.
Hamilton Rapid Transit: 14 km of rapid transit stretching from McMaster University to Eastgate Square.
Hurontario-Main Light Rail Transit: 23 km LRT line connecting Port Credit to downtown Brampton via Cooksville and Mississauga City Centre.
His plan, as I understand it, would be to reduce the cost of the Big Move (the next phase all in was supposed to be $16B...so stripping those out brings it down)...then identifying efficiencies in government so that the new reduced cost combined with those efficiencies delivers the projects that they support (DRL, Yonge extension, GO Train expansion).
I would expect that they will go to great lengths to show that this reduced "priority" list would have been funded, as an example, if government was wiser with our money and things like Gas Plants, E-Health, Orange and sole sourcing/penalties to Bombardier had never happened (note: I am not saying this but I expect they will).
Solid Snake
Active Member
http://www.torontosun.com/2013/10/28/wasted-gas-plant-cash-could-help-get-ontario-moving
What $1.1 billion (gas plant) could buy:
Items on the Transportation Shopping List
• One subway car: $6 million
• One bus: $800,000 (lasts 18 years)
• One kilometre of subway: $300 million
• One kilometre of light rail: $100 million
• Cost to rebuild one kilometre of highway: $150,000
• Expansion of Hwy. 7 in Kitchener/Waterloo/Guelph: $294 million
• Extend GO commuter rail service to St. Catharines: $355 million
• Cost of Scarborough subway to Sheppard Ave: $2.3 billion
• Cost of Downtown Relief Line from Pape to St. Andrew station: $3 billion
Nickeling and Diming us with Fee Increases and Studies
• Cost of vehicle permit as of Sept. 1: Up from $82 to $90. Will increase to $108 by Sept. 1, 2015
• Driver’s Licence renewal: Up from $75 to $80
• Extra revenue collected in next three years from increased driver’s fees: $891 million
• Number of years Metrolinx studied revenue tools issue: Five
• Metrolinx’s proposed tools to cost each GTA household: $477 extra a year
• Cost of newly-appointed Transit Investment Strategy Advisory Panel: $105,000
• Amount of that going to panel chair Anne Golden: $90,000
• Duration of work: Three months
rbt
Senior Member
Or, simply toss up his hands and say "we have no money". A US recession is due to hit between 2014 and 2016 (7 to 9 years since the last) so that can be a convenient excuse.
The other option is to start slashing other transit subsidies. TTC receives a good chunk of capital money from the province still for SOGR work. GO receives an operating subsidy that can be removed. That would give them another $3B over 10 years to work with.
Of course, maintenance slashing caused serious problems in the past but that wasn't until years later.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Well, if operating capacity is the be all and end all, you'd be supporting refitting Scarborough RT as LRT instead of a full blown subway extension.
And it is a bit funny that you should bring up that list of secondary projects that can conceivably be canned - considering those are mainly the BRTs that you just voiced support for.
AoD
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TOareaFan
Superstar
Some are.
To be fair, it was me (not SS) that raised that list and I only did it to show what other parts of Phase II Hudak would/could target in response to someone posting an incomplete list and saying there was not nearly enough savings there. Just showing that there was more savings which they will likely combine with efficiencies (real or imagined) to show that their plan is valid.
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Solid Snake
Active Member
Scarborough is within the subway threshold by 2031. I know you have an attachment to LRT which I respect but I'm being just as rigorous as you were when you kept bashing Sheppard as a subway as "overkill"... well same for Hurontario LRT. Even by 2031 it's still within the BRT threshold, meaning Mississauga and Brampton could build even more BRT lines. Didn't you use the very same argument when you said that the money for the Sheppard subway could build more LRT lines.
So your standards stands against the subway but you're willing to bend them for LRTs?
Aren't we a little bias?
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Electrify
Senior Member
Aren't those phase 2 projects which the revenue tools were supposed to pay for?
innsertnamehere
Superstar
my point is that you are saying that the LRT will still be under capacity 10 years after opening, well of course it will. I was saying earlier that you have to look long term, 30 years or more as you end up spending $2 billion 30 years on to upgrade.
also, Hudak doesn't want anything on Hurontario, BRT or LRT. His focus is on the Yonge subway, Sheppard subway, and DRL.
Hudak is proposing to cut everything from the big move except for the yonge extension and the DRL, along with AD2W on a couple of GO lines. (probably Kitchener and Stouffville) everything else would be gone.
double standard much? Scarborough meets the minimum standard for subway, therefor it should get subway. Hurontario meets the maximum standard for BRT, therefor it should get BRT.
also, Hudak doesn't want anything on Hurontario, BRT or LRT. His focus is on the Yonge subway, Sheppard subway, and DRL.
Hudak is proposing to cut everything from the big move except for the yonge extension and the DRL, along with AD2W on a couple of GO lines. (probably Kitchener and Stouffville) everything else would be gone.
Scarborough is within the subway threshold by 2031. I know you have an attachment to LRT which I respect but I'm being just as rigorous as you were when you kept bashing Sheppard as a subway as "overkill"... well same for Hurontario LRT. Even by 2031 it's still within the BRT threshold, meaning Mississauga and Brampton could build even more BRT lines. Didn't you use the very same argument when you said that the money for the Sheppard subway could build more LRT lines.
So your standards stands against the subway but you're willing to bend them for LRTs?
Aren't we a little bias?
double standard much? Scarborough meets the minimum standard for subway, therefor it should get subway. Hurontario meets the maximum standard for BRT, therefor it should get BRT.
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TOareaFan
Superstar
Yes that is a partial list of Phase2 (leaving out the ones that Hudak is supporting like DRL)....and if I understand Hudak's plan...it is to reduce the cost of those projects to a level that he can deliver without the revenue tools and use a combination of existing tax revenue and cost savings/efficiencies.
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