Politics: Tim Hudak's Plan for Ontario if he becomes Premier

[TOareaFan]

But those phase 2 projects I thought didn't have any funding attached to them yet? Aren't they supposed to be funded entirely with the revenue tools? So even if he does cancel them along with any phase 1 projects which don't satisfy his subway fetish, he will still be severely short on cash to build his plan.

Yes but his thought process/logic is that the revenue tools are only needed because of those projects.....if he can get the project list/cost down to a figure that he can pay for from existing tax measures combined with efficiencies he thinks he can improve transit in the priority areas (subways and GO Trains) without needing the tools.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

As I have said before, I am very skeptical about the ridership potential of this route in the northern portion of it. I think the south (MCC to PC) makes sense and since (last I heard) it is not going to be a single ride route anyway (ie. there is a forced transfer at MCC between the two halfs) I just don't get the need to build both halves now. Build the south and let MiWay and BRT service the northern portion with enhanced/express bus services until it needs more (which I don't think it will).

First of all, the transfer is a policy decision, not one that is imposed by technology - there are no reasons why the line could be run all the way through if and when that decision is made. Second, while there might not be demand all the way to Brampton, there is significant office and other developments north of Square One that could benefit from having limited stop mass transit line.

Yes but his thought process/logic is that the revenue tools are only needed because of those projects.....if he can get the project list/cost down to a figure that he can pay for from existing tax measures combined with efficiencies he thinks he can improve transit in the priority areas (subways and GO Trains) without needing the tools.

There had been such an underinvestment in transit that everything is a priority area if you want to make a significant dent in gridlock - we are building for what hasn't been built for the past generation. No amount of paring anything down will change that reality.

AoD

 

[Filip]

Filip:

The only "sub-par" part of the central portion of Eglinton LRT is the length of the station platforms - which is while short, are still significantly longer than the Canada Line (40-50m vs 100m). There are no reasons why we can expect a much higher level of capacity with judicious modifications and operational changes.

Solid Snake:



Perhaps, but considering capital costs increase significantly as you move up the capacity ladder, there is an increasing need for due diligence.

AoD

I feel that line will be over capacity before 2031 (where the TTC themselves have said work will need to be done to raise capacity). Last I heard, the line isn't even able to be converted to subway as the grades they used are too steep! That's ridiculous! That's $8 billion thrown in the wind!

If Hudak was smart, he'd convert the tunneled portion of the Eglinton LRT into a subway with elegant BRT branching out the ends until a decision to extend the line was made. That's probably a big win in the overall scheme of 'future proofing' transit.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Filip:

I feel that line will be over capacity before 2031 (where the TTC themselves have said work will need to be done to raise capacity). Last I heard, the line isn't even able to be converted to subway as the grades they used are too steep! That's ridiculous! That's $8 billion thrown in the wind!

What does the word "subway" mean, exactly? Subway trainset? Or subway level capacity with LRT trainset? Of course you can't convert it to a subway running subway trainsets easily - but that's trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. What you would probably need are systems that would enable the trains to run more frequently - i.e. significant automation. Not rocket science. If you think that can't be done - someone will have to explain to me why we can't match and exceed the capacity level of Canada Line here in the central portion of the Eglinton LRT even though our infrastructure is scaled far more generously.

If Hudak was smart, he'd convert the tunneled portion of the Eglinton LRT into a subway with elegant BRT branching out the ends until a decision to extend the line was made. That's probably a big win in the overall scheme of 'future proofing' transit.

See point re: the term "subway".

AoD

 

[JasonParis]

As for the London transport thing...I visit London every year or so and use bus, over and under ground train. People seem to despise the private operating, complaining about delays, construction over runs, increasing prices... but it's just my anecdotal experience. Anyone else have any experience/info about their way of running things? Is there a role for this type of model within the TTC?

Tfl is essentially an umbrella organization that manages various different operators under one brand and helps set the integrated fares, services and marketing. It is exactly what Metrolinx was also supposed to do. He clearly doesn't uderstand what Tfl actually is and just stresses that many of the operators are "private" (they do accept much public money too which he'll ignore).

I suppose on the bright side, the DRL appears to be getting to the point, where there is universal recognition that it's essential.

I agree. I said this on the DRL Facebook page too, but it seems to be making strange bedfellows and is almost-universally accepted as the next major thing to be built. I think in Hudak's case it may be simply that some very important people (i.e., bank CEOs) are saying things behind the scenes like "get this damn thing built or the financial industry in Toronto is in jeaopardy."

 

[Solid Snake]

Yes but his thought process/logic is that the revenue tools are only needed because of those projects.....if he can get the project list/cost down to a figure that he can pay for from existing tax measures combined with efficiencies he thinks he can improve transit in the priority areas (subways and GO Trains) without needing the tools.

I work for the Federal government and believe me when I tell you that efficiencies aren't that hard to find if you really want to. Usually politicians really want them found but they have to fight senior public service managers who will fight to the bitter end to not get their departments cut. Waste of money are usually the fault of managers who can't manage or by managers who like to spend the entire budget.

Let's say a department gets 5 billions for the entire year. 2 weeks before the end of the fiscal year, there is 100 million of unspent money. Whatever is remaining cannot be carry over to the next fiscal year (departments are not suppose to make profits, only break even or have a surplus). 2 things can happen:

1-The surplus goes back to the treasury board (which usually flag your department for a much needed cut)
2-the managers spend it all on anything they can (and make their case that they can't be cut)

What do you think happens 99.9% of the time?
Option #2

The only way to stop that practice is by auditing and then cut. If you don't cut, managers will get the habit managing resources so that at the end of the year they have money to spend on non essential stuff (travels, training, more sophisticated equipment, more hiring etc...). People would be amazed on what's going on in government department it's usually regular public servants that get the bad press. Managers are way worse in reality...

If Hudak thinks he can squeeze those departments... let's see what he can do but there's no doubt in my mind that there is lots to cut.

 

[Filip]

Filip:



What does the word "subway" mean, exactly? Subway trainset? Or subway level capacity with LRT trainset? Of course you can't convert it to a subway running subway trainsets easily - but that's trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. What you would probably need are systems that would enable the trains to run more frequently - i.e. significant automation. Not rocket science. If you think that can't be done - someone will have to explain to me why we can't match and exceed the capacity level of Canada Line here in the central portion of the Eglinton LRT even though our infrastructure is scaled far more generously.



See point re: the term "subway".

AoD

A subway with subway specs - 6 car trainsets, high level platforms, third rail power. Basically build the line the same as it was envisioned with the Eglinton West subway. What we're getting here is basically a very fancy, overbuilt, Queen's Quay underground streetcar station.

I think I read on here that the cost to build the undergound LRT portion is higher than your typical Toronto subway. That by itself is why my head exploded as to why we're building this underground LRT and not a proper subway. Biggest ball drop of the decade IMO.

 

[Adjei]

How much efficiency has Rob Ford been able to find in the City of Toronto government?

 

[Solid Snake]

How much efficiency has Rob Ford been able to find in the City of Toronto government?

Certainly not a billion like he claims but you can't compare the city and a province.

 

[Adjei]

I am just skeptical of politicians coming and claiming that they can build all the subways we need through efficiencies.

 

[TOareaFan]

First of all, the transfer is a policy decision, not one that is imposed by technology - there are no reasons why the line could be run all the way through if and when that decision is made. Second, while there might not be demand all the way to Brampton, there is significant office and other developments north of Square One that could benefit from having limited stop mass transit line.

I never said that it was technology imposed.....but the decision has been made to have the transfer...they never told us why (I suspect it is because they know the ridership will be much lower north of MCC and this way they can adjust the frequencies differently on the two halves more easily) but it does take away the early marketing slant of a comfy fast single vehicle ride from DT Brampton to PC.

There had been such an underinvestment in transit that everything is a priority area if you want to make a significant dent in gridlock - we are building for what hasn't been built for the past generation. No amount of paring anything down will change that reality.

AoD

I was just suggesting that those are his party's priorities.

 

[Solid Snake]

I am just skeptical of politicians coming and claiming that they can build all the subways we need through efficiencies.

You're right to be skeptical but those who want to find them usually really wants to. The main obstacle is usually whoever runs the departments. A minister can bark orders all he wants but it's the senior public servant or senior director who runs it who knows it inside out and who's better equipped to resist the political level.

It can be done but it's very hard to do. Ford tried too and literally had to bully some of those managers to have his cuts applied. That's his style but he's in a municipal context... there's really so much you can find. Higher governments are another story. It's all about where are your priorities and are you willing to spend there. With all the Liberals scandals and the provincial debt that nearly or has doubled since they've been in power, they could have massively expend and improved our transit network time and time over... It just wasn't on top of their priority. That's why when people see the Wynne government as a transit champion, I can't help but laugh.

Harper actually succeeded but was quick to spend those efficiencies elsewhere. Something that went under the radar is that over the years he got rid of a lot of senior managers to replace them with more cooperative managers. No doubt Hudak will do the same and find those efficiencies. In my mind, there's no way he can keep his promise and fix the economy if he doesn't drastically cut somewhere to make up for it and I'm not talking about LRT projects. A major program might be on the chopping block to give him more flexibility to achieve his fiscal agenda. I do believe that he wants Metrolinx to be like Transport for London but the real question is, what will he cut?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

A subway with subway specs - 6 car trainsets, high level platforms, third rail power. Basically build the line the same as it was envisioned with the Eglinton West subway. What we're getting here is basically a very fancy, overbuilt, Queen's Quay underground streetcar station.

I think I read on here that the cost to build the undergound LRT portion is higher than your typical Toronto subway. That by itself is why my head exploded as to why we're building this underground LRT and not a proper subway. Biggest ball drop of the decade IMO.

Eglinton should have been a subway. That much was clear. All of this could have been avoided if it was.

 

[Electrify]

Yes but his thought process/logic is that the revenue tools are only needed because of those projects.....if he can get the project list/cost down to a figure that he can pay for from existing tax measures combined with efficiencies he thinks he can improve transit in the priority areas (subways and GO Trains) without needing the tools.

Okay, I think we are on the same page now. He will basically kill the $3 billion of phase 1 projects he still can giving him $3 billion, all of phase 2+ which don't fit his vision, and then use "efficiencies" to pay for the rest without raising taxes. At least, in his mind that's how it will work.

The thing with Eglinton being a heavy metro is the portion between Don Mills and Kennedy, and eventually west of Weston. Those areas are so open that it doesn't make sense to use grade separation. That said, modified metro cars that can switch to overhead wires and operate at grade, or going elevated or trenched could work too.

 

[Filip]

Okay, I think we are on the same page now. He will basically kill the $3 billion of phase 1 projects he still can giving him $3 billion, all of phase 2+ which don't fit his vision, and then use "efficiencies" to pay for the rest without raising taxes. At least, in his mind that's how it will work.

The thing with Eglinton being a heavy metro is the portion between Don Mills and Kennedy, and eventually west of Weston. Those areas are so open that it doesn't make sense to use grade separation. That said, modified metro cars that can switch to overhead wires and operate at grade, or going elevated or trenched could work too.

BRT could handle those areas until funding materializes for a full line.