2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[Towered]

I'm the other way. Sham referendums don't mean much. The willingness to resource the fight is the real question.

The referendums are irrelevant, and the Ukrainian government has already gone on record publicly as saying that they won't change a thing - they're going to liberate all occupied territory.

One thing I've learned in the past 7 months of this debacle is that nothing the Russian government says is worth paying any attention to.

 

[Bjays92]

I should rephrase, I'm concerned about the implications of Russia claiming Russian territory has been attacked following the referendums. It fundamentally shifts the environment of the war, even if it's a sham.

 

[kEiThZ]

I should rephrase, I'm concerned about the implications of Russia claiming Russian territory has been attacked following the referendums. It fundamentally shifts the environment of the war, even if it's a sham.

Not as much as you think. Nobody is going to buy their sham. So using the sham as an excuse won't do much. If this whole play makes Westerners wet themselves, that's also a nice benefit.

The whole point of the annexation is to justify conscription. That's why it's all being done together. This way Mikhail from St. Petersburg feels better about dying for Russia than Putin's foreign wars. Under their rules, they have to declare war to draft if fighting abroad. But if defending Russia? No declaration needed. Just start drafting.

They will start rounding up every ex-military type with skill and mobilize them. They won't let anybody with contracts leave. Etc. Remains to be seen how helpful this will be.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

If they wanted to use nukes, they wouldn't have bothered with a technicality.as pretext. As to making Mikhail feel better - well, this ain't the great patriotic war. Keep calm and carry on - turn the vise tighter.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

NATO decided to give Putin a scare too. Transponders off is escalation signalling.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572377515020124161

 

[Richard White]

NATO decided to give Putin a scare too. Transponders off is escalation signalling.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572377515020124161

I wonder if NATO is finally getting involved It may be that Russias referendums and mobilization have crossed a red line.

I suspect in the next few days we will hear of either significant Ukrainian advances or the start of WW3.

 

[kEiThZ]

I wonder if NATO is finally getting involved It may be that Russias referendums and mobilization have crossed a red line.

Nah. It's just a little reminder to Vlad that if we decide to do something, he won't see us coming.

It's signalling. Like I said.

If there's actual intervention in Ukraine, you'll hear rumours of lots of explosions in Ukraine (and maybe Belarus) after about 5pm our time, and then Biden will be on TV at about 10pm declaring that the US (and probably UK) has established a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Don't have to take my word for it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572284473273888770

They have US,UK and NATO Rivet Joints, Sentries and JSTARS, along with a whole pile of satellites and cyber efforts monitoring literally every single thing that is Russian and moves in Ukraine, 24/7/365. They have already mapped out how they'll wipe out every emitter in Ukraine and in what order. And then how they will destroy every Russian vehicle and fortified position after that. They've even started figuring out what weapons they'll use and tasked the logistics guys to be ready to move the aircraft and weapons and fuel to theatre. In military planning this is called weaponeering, or colloquially, "Matching warheads to foreheads.". Heck, you can bet somebody has even checked out available hotel rooms in Poland and Romania already. Planning is the bread and butter of NATO staff officers. And they are ruthlessly efficient at it. Unlike the Russians, our guys don't show up to a war with three days of expired rations and dress uniforms.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

As a side note, buddy Iran is having some troubles of its' own, while Turkey has changed it's tunes again. Assad ought to be "concerned" right now.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

As a side note, buddy Iran is having some troubles of its' own, while Turkey has changed it's tunes again. Assad ought to be "concerned" right now.

AoD

The end of the Iranian theocracy and Russian kleptocracy would make in 2022 or 2023 would make up for all the last few shitty years.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

The end of the Iranian theocracy and Russian kleptocracy would make in 2022 or 2023 would make up for all the last few shitty years.

I would take great delight to see both of them meeting unnatural ends.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

I would take great delight to see both of them meeting unnatural ends.

I'm not normally a believer in capital punishment. But whatever gets them to stop hurting people.....

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I'm not normally a believer in capital punishment. But whatever gets them to stop hurting people.....

I am a great believer of capital punishment x10 for individuals who had committed - without the slightest hint of restraint - crimes against Humanity.

AoD

 

[Northern Light]

As a side note, buddy Iran is having some troubles of its' own, while Turkey has changed it's tunes again. Assad ought to be "concerned" right now.

AoD

There's some very serious bubbling going on there.........its not the first time, but.......open chants of 'Death to the Dictator' don't come often to that country.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572329586251145218

Iran unrest: Women burn headscarves at anti-hijab protests

Protests have continued for five successive nights since the death in custody of Mahsa Amini.

www.bbc.com

Iran confirms first deaths in protests over Mahsa Amini’s death

Iranian officials said foreign actors are influencing the spreading protests over the death of a young woman.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

There's some very serious bubbling going on there.........its not the first time, but.......open chants of 'Death to the Dictator' don't come often to that country.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572329586251145218

Iran unrest: Women burn headscarves at anti-hijab protests

Protests have continued for five successive nights since the death in custody of Mahsa Amini.

www.bbc.com

Iran confirms first deaths in protests over Mahsa Amini’s death

Iranian officials said foreign actors are influencing the spreading protests over the death of a young woman.

www.aljazeera.com

I must say, I find that a rather heartwarming video.

AoD

 

[Northern Light]

I must say, I find that a rather heartwarming video.

AoD

I don't disagree.........

But

Will the media in Quebec or Canada latch on to this in light of the controversy over Quebec's bill limiting overtly religious attire?

The same thing? Of course not. But there is a relationship of some kind.........in Canada, the law may be advocated for by those who genuinely value secularism, but every bit as likely those who are
bigoted.

But the world again has a way of showing these arguments are rarely as simple as any hardliner as it were would wish to make them.