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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

After last night's POTUS debate disaster Zelenskyy had better start planning for his country's next move once President Trump cancels all US aid to Ukraine in Jan 2025. Zelenskyy's immediate move should be to try to grab as much ground, arms and non-US international assistance as he can. I would begin a widescale conscription of all men and women aged 18-50, not all for combat of course, but all for national service. You have six months before the taps potentially run dry.
 
To be fair, Europe has somewhat anticipated Trump and has really been ramping up defence manufacturing. They'll have to do even more. But they'll get there. Ukraine has to get through this summer and through to next summer by which point Russia is really going to start running out of a lot of Cold war stocks.
 
kEiThZ said:
And countries like Canada refusing to do our share are absolutely culpable for this failure.
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Ukrainians who fled need to do their share. Ukraine needs more soldiers. It's time for Zelenzkyy to hit the international airwaves and ask all fighting age men no matter family status, who fled the country in 2022-23 to return to Ukraine. A good propagandist may also suggest First Lady Olena Zelenska also broadcast to the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian women who fled the country that Ukraine needs their husbands and adult sons to come home, that your sisters, mothers and grandmothers still in Ukraine need their protection. Without your help, the country is lost.

When Israel was attacked on Oct 7th, its citizens didn't flee abroad, but instead raced from abroad back to Israel. If Zelenskyy cannot put that fire into the souls of Ukrainian men living safely abroad while the country burns, then he's going to run out of men.
 
kEiThZ said:
Ukraine needs to recruit more to be sure. But we need to train them and arm them too. Forcing them to recruit cannon fodder for pointless symbolism isn't very useful.
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Agreed, of course. No one is suggesting Russian-like meat waves. But you can’t train them if they’ve fled the country.

Perhaps the CAF could offer to train Ukrainian men who’ve fled to Canada so that they arrive in Ukraine ready to go.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Agreed, of course. No one is suggesting Russian-like meat waves. But you can’t train them if they’ve fled the country.

Perhaps the CAF could offer to train Ukrainian men who’ve fled to Canada so that they arrive in Ukraine ready to go.
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I think you're falling for propaganda here. Some have fled. But there's still plenty of people inside the country and most of the criticism of Zelensky has been that he's not upping conscription rates at home.
 
kEiThZ said:
I think you're falling for propaganda here. Some have fled. But there's still plenty of people inside the country and most of the criticism of Zelensky has been that he's not upping conscription rates at home.
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Maybe. But I can't imagine being a Ukrainian man and watching from the safety of an overseas refuge as my womenfolk, perhaps my very own cousins, aunts, sisters, and nieces step up.


 
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I prefer the 1938 glasses.

IMG_3195.png
 
It's not obvious. But Russia is actually slowly starting to fall apart. Vatniks are bragging about low unemployment these days. You know who else had historically low unemployment during war? Nazi Germany. Turns out driving your capable citizens away and sending your losers to die creates low unemployment and even labour shortages. And this is starting to show up in various ways. For example, lower productivity by their national railco than even during COVID.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1820237131148673325
 
kEiThZ said:
It's not obvious. But Russia is actually slowly starting to fall apart. Vatniks are bragging about low unemployment these days. You know who else had historically low unemployment during war? Nazi Germany. Turns out driving your capable citizens away and sending your losers to die creates low unemployment and even labour shortages. And this is starting to show up in various ways. For example, lower productivity by their national railco than even during COVID.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1820237131148673325
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Russia's productivity is falling, but so is Ukraine's. The most recent concern seems to be their energy generating capacity, which is at half capacity compared to 2022.

The question, I suppose, is whether Western support will be enough to last the AFU to defeat the Russians. Depending on the outcome of the ... election ... down south, there are arguments that the rest of NATO/the West don't have the capability/will to support Ukraine to defeat Russia. I'm looking at the sad state of our own military.

Let me be clear, I agree that this war is already a strategic defeat for Russia. But it looks as though we don't have the guts to go for their defeat on the battlefield, and instead, we're continuing our failed strategy of escalation management, prolonging the suffering of millions of Ukrainians who have to live with the war and its consequences. /sigh
 
From this week's Economist:

THREE DAYS in, Ukraine’s unexpected cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk region to the north-east shows no signs of abating. Since the start of the operation on the morning of August 6th, Russia has lost full control of at least 350 sq km of its territory. Scores of its soldiers have been killed or captured. A race is on to halt the advance—and prevent the Ukrainians from digging in.

20240810_WOM940.png
Map: The Economist
By August 8th, Ukrainian forces had progressed towards Sudzha, 10km from the border, and Korenevo, 15km inside Russia. Fierce fighting continues in both areas. Reports suggest that smaller Ukrainian units have broken away and are fighting even deeper in. Social-media footage shows the results of the fighting: destroyed buildings and dead soldiers, scattered across pockmarked roads. Videos released on the first day showed a large group of Russian prisoners being marched away under armed guard.

Read more of our recent coverage of the Ukraine war
 
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