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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Bjays92 said:
They have already used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine (though in very limited quantities)
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The Russians claim a lot of things.....Enjoy the video in this article from a pro-Russian American blogger. You'll get to see the world's slowest Hypersonic missile.

observers.france24.com

No, these videos do not show a Russian hypersonic strike in Ukraine

The Russian military claimed to have used a hypersonic missile on March 18 to strike an underground warehouse in western Ukraine. Two videos have emerged on social networks claiming to show this attack,…
observers.france24.com observers.france24.com

afransen said:
Using them to attack relatively low value targets would be foolish.
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But would be totally in line with demonstrated Russian decision-making in this conflict. They've used cruise missiles to take out artillery systems in this war. Even suggesting that in a NATO planning cell might get you fired. I won't even get into the whole bit about bombing daycares and hospitals where they combine war crimes with bad resource allocation.

afransen said:
Hypersonic missiles are really meant to defeat the missile defenses of high value naval assets like US carriers. It is worth throwing $10M missiles at multi-billion dollar carrier.
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The biggest value of a hypersonic weapon is that its trajectory provides limited warning. It's not ballistic, so the trajectory is not predictable (ballistic missiles are like throwing a baseball). It's also fast enough that a tail chase intercept may not be able to close fast enough. The Russian Kinzhal is a bit borderline.... They took a ballistic missile (the Iskander) and modified it so they could air launch. It doesn't have the same evasiveness as say the American (boost glide) ARRW or (scramjet cruise) HAWC missiles. Let's just say like a lot of other things, the Russians are pushing the line of truthiness on this one. Which is why you never see anybody in NATO even flinch when they start talking about hypersonic this or that.

Also, hypersonics is kinda hard when missiles are built with the same quality as everything else in Russia....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570118198518759425
 
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and formations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. ISW has previously reported that Putin has been bypassing the Russian higher military command and Ministry of Defense leadership throughout the summer and especially following the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.[1] Putin’s souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin’s increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units. See: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18
 
From Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...trol-of-luhansk-as-ukraine-recaptures-village

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We are at a very dangerous moment in this war. Once again, do not mistake this as me being fearful of nukes being used. However, by formally annexing Ukrainian territory, Russia can then set up a legal pretence for self defence, including the use of nuclear weapons as per their nuclear doctrine, as any attacks on occupied regions by Ukraine would be viewed as attacks on Russia.

Again I'm not saying this will happen, but if there is anything that dictators love, it's doing things that make their actions technically legal within their own frame of laws. It's a justification to their own domestic audience that they have a right to act the way they are acting even if the rest of the world sees through it.

No matter how you cut it, formal annexation is dangerously escalatory.
 
Bjays92 said:
We are at a very dangerous moment in this war. Once again, do not mistake this as me being fearful of nukes being used. However, by formally annexing Ukrainian territory, Russia can then set up a legal pretence for self defence, including the use of nuclear weapons as per their nuclear doctrine, as any attacks on occupied regions by Ukraine would be viewed as attacks on Russia.

Again I'm not saying this will happen, but if there is anything that dictators love, it's doing things that make their actions technically legal within their own frame of laws. It's a justification to their own domestic audience that they have a right to act the way they are acting even if the rest of the world sees through it.

No matter how you cut it, formal annexation is dangerously escalatory.
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Referendum or not, there is no way in hell that any country other than Russia, Belarus, China and North Korea would recognize the annexation as legitimate.

Annexing parts of Ukraine (or anywhere else) would be nothing more than the creation of a puppet state like the USSR did so many times.
 
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