kEiThZ
Superstar
Escalators yes. But anybody who postures or worries about nukes doesn't understand them.
1) Tactical nukes take out a small area. With luck maybe they take out a battalion at best. So actually using nukes to stop the Ukrainian Army would literally require dozens to actually create an operational effect.
2) Russia using nukes is the end of Indian and Chinese support and Turkish ambivalence. China and India were already wavering. An actual nuclear attack means that the US would need to openly declare nuclear cover for its Asian allies. Imagine the US announcing that South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Australia and Singapore are officially under American nuclear cover. For Turkey having a nuclear attack in its backyard is the end of any balancing with Russia. And all this would be happening at the same time as the global economy crashes. Imagine this piling on to all the economic troubles in China and the inflation in the developing world. Support for Russia would collapse.
So if they use nukes, they lose support, cause very little actual military damage and risk an American intervention in Ukraine. But there's more! The EU will definitely close borders with Russia and cut all trade. Russia's economic problems are going to accelerate and with it the turmoil at home will be substantial. The turmoil also requires more troops for domestic repression, only making the operational situation in Ukraine worse.
The Siloviki in Russia are crooks. But they're not crazy. They know how this would play out. They aren't going to use nukes. If Putin actually gave the order, there's a good chance he might face an internal coup. But they really, really need the West to believe there's a chance they just might.
What I think it's likely is just a campaign of terror. Open bombing of cities and infrastructure. Possibly small scale Chem bio attacks with deniability. Etc. He will try to destroy Ukraine as we know it so the reconstruction bill is insane.
The actual mobilization stuff is mostly aimed at the current troops. Lots are refusing to deploy. Growing numbers are surrendering. He wants to bully them into fighting. And not let them quit. Stop Loss. Russia style.
