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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War
- Thread starter Towered
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Richard White
Senior Member
Apparently even China is now concerned about how the war in ukraine is playing out...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62912892
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62912892
kEiThZ
Superstar
Richard White
Senior Member
No doubt if this war keeps tracking the way it is for Russia, China will cut them loose.
China always has worked in their best interest and right now, they are the only thing keeping Putin afloat. I highly doubt North Korea or Iran will keep them afloat if China cuts them loose.
The more interesting side effect will be with countries like Hungary and Belarus which are partaking in the cult of Putin. If Russia falters, these countries may also lose their Prime Ministers, Presidents, Etc. In Hungary's case it may bring them closer to the EU when the Russian gravy train stops.
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This on BBC website:
"In the Kremlin's military adventures, both in Ukraine and further afield, regular troops have often been bolstered by members of the shadowy Wagner mercenary group.
Now the group's founder, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, has appeared in leaked footage attempting to recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine.
In the footage, verified by the BBC, he can be seen addressing a large group of detainees, apparently confirming long-running speculation that Russia hopes to boost its forces by recruiting convicts.
Mr Prigozhin told prisoners their sentences would be commuted in exchange for service with his group.
While Russian law does not allow commutation of prison sentences in exchange for mercenary service, Mr Prigozhin insisted that "nobody goes back behind bars" if they serve with his group.
On Thursday evening he appeared to defend the idea of sending prisoners to the frontline. In a statement on his company's social media feed he addressed those who were uncomfortable with the idea, saying it's "either prisoners or your children - you decide"." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62915673
"In the Kremlin's military adventures, both in Ukraine and further afield, regular troops have often been bolstered by members of the shadowy Wagner mercenary group.
Now the group's founder, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, has appeared in leaked footage attempting to recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine.
In the footage, verified by the BBC, he can be seen addressing a large group of detainees, apparently confirming long-running speculation that Russia hopes to boost its forces by recruiting convicts.
Mr Prigozhin told prisoners their sentences would be commuted in exchange for service with his group.
While Russian law does not allow commutation of prison sentences in exchange for mercenary service, Mr Prigozhin insisted that "nobody goes back behind bars" if they serve with his group.
On Thursday evening he appeared to defend the idea of sending prisoners to the frontline. In a statement on his company's social media feed he addressed those who were uncomfortable with the idea, saying it's "either prisoners or your children - you decide"." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62915673
Bjays92
Senior Member
Personally I think you are misinterpreting Xi's concern here. His concern is not over the war or its international ramifications (by and large) his concern is Russia's recent failings.
At this meeting Russia and China pledged to further deepen ties and work together on eachothers core interests, China has choosen their side, they are simply trying to delay the costs.
The Taiwan Policy Act is slowly making it's way through congress, which will force China to react and it broke a few days ago that the U.S. is considering preemtive sanctions on China in a bid to discourage China going to war over Taiwan. Russia is essentially seen as a dry run for the eventuality of a Chinese invasion, though the likelihood other militaries would get involved is significantly higher. The U.S. has been massively lobbying the EU to rapidly diversify from China and step up their contingencies in the case of a war in the Taiwanese Strait.
China, in many ways gains from having Russia in their court at this moment just as Russia needs China. It is not a completely one sided relationship, but Xi has been treading carefully to avoid secondary sanctions from supporting Russia and has tried not to blatantly violate existing ones.
It's been known since the early days of the war that China was receptive of sending military aid to Russia, but again is likely holding off to avoid sanctions as they believed Russia could be successful without their assistance. This is where the concern comes in, should Russia continue to falter, analysts believe that China will ultimately feel it has to step up and offer some form of direct support. That would be painful for China, but they feel the sanctions are inevitable anyway and share Russia's concerns about the Western sphere of influence. The last thing China wants is a dissolution of Russia, and they will most certainly step in to prevent that if they feel it is necessary.
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This, from a longer article, is in The Economist today.
Mr Putin has time to redeem himself in China’s eyes. For Chinese interests to be advanced, Russia does not need to achieve all its war aims, let alone to control this or that Ukrainian oblast. China’s cold-eyed priority is for the American-led West to end up divided and weakened. China views this as a long game. It still hopes to see Europeans hold “America’s war” responsible for soaring energy prices causing pain to citizens and businesses across their continent, especially after a long, hard winter.
....
Self-interest explains Chinese policy. China denounces American defence alliances and sanctions because it fears the same levers being used to contain China in Asia, or to punish an attack on Taiwan. Chinese leaders believe they will gain from a Russian draw or victory in Ukraine, concludes a senior Western official. “Either Russia is weakened and so China is stronger in their bilateral partnership, or Russia can claim victory and that’s a defeat for the West.” Either way suits China, he says. Taking advantage of Russia’s semi-isolation, China is buying its oil and gas at low prices, and will soon pay for more of it with its non-convertible currency, the yuan. Ever-cautious about its interests, China has avoided overt challenges to Western sanctions. “Our Chinese friends are tough bargainers,” Mr Putin noted, days before meeting Mr Xi.
To China, Mr Putin’s current woes are unwelcome but manageable. Abject defeat for Russia in Ukraine would be another matter. For one thing, it might trigger regime-threatening chaos in Moscow. For another, if liberal democracies stay united and prove willing to endure pain to defend the rules-based order, that would undercut China’s favourite charge that the West is in decadent decline. Mr Xi wants a fighter for a friend, not a loser.
Mr Putin has time to redeem himself in China’s eyes. For Chinese interests to be advanced, Russia does not need to achieve all its war aims, let alone to control this or that Ukrainian oblast. China’s cold-eyed priority is for the American-led West to end up divided and weakened. China views this as a long game. It still hopes to see Europeans hold “America’s war” responsible for soaring energy prices causing pain to citizens and businesses across their continent, especially after a long, hard winter.
....
Self-interest explains Chinese policy. China denounces American defence alliances and sanctions because it fears the same levers being used to contain China in Asia, or to punish an attack on Taiwan. Chinese leaders believe they will gain from a Russian draw or victory in Ukraine, concludes a senior Western official. “Either Russia is weakened and so China is stronger in their bilateral partnership, or Russia can claim victory and that’s a defeat for the West.” Either way suits China, he says. Taking advantage of Russia’s semi-isolation, China is buying its oil and gas at low prices, and will soon pay for more of it with its non-convertible currency, the yuan. Ever-cautious about its interests, China has avoided overt challenges to Western sanctions. “Our Chinese friends are tough bargainers,” Mr Putin noted, days before meeting Mr Xi.
To China, Mr Putin’s current woes are unwelcome but manageable. Abject defeat for Russia in Ukraine would be another matter. For one thing, it might trigger regime-threatening chaos in Moscow. For another, if liberal democracies stay united and prove willing to endure pain to defend the rules-based order, that would undercut China’s favourite charge that the West is in decadent decline. Mr Xi wants a fighter for a friend, not a loser.
Admiral Beez
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kEiThZ
Superstar
The sanctions are starting to bite. It's going to go exactly like the military campaign. First slowly. Then quickly.
kEiThZ
Superstar
kEiThZ
Superstar
While we'd all like the Ukrainians to get better and more kit, here's a look at what they are up against:
Grenade launchers or even high powered rifles can defeat this.
Grenade launchers or even high powered rifles can defeat this.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Richard White
Senior Member
I wonder how low on equipment Russia really is if they are using antiquated equipment.
If I recall, Putin originally claimed to have hypersonic missile available to be deployed in Ukraine. I highly doubt that is the case and quite frankly I would not be surprised if they broke out T-55s in short order.
Bjays92
Senior Member
They have already used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine (though in very limited quantities) obviously they do not have a significant stockpile of these weapons, given both their complexity and how novel they are.
As for equipment shortages, it is quite clear that Russia has expended their quota for this war, hence them dragging out old soviet stuff from storage. That does not mean Russia has expended their modern military equipment though, they have saved a lot of their best forces and equipment and used little to none of it in this war.
afransen
Senior Member
Hypersonic missiles are very expensive. Using them to attack relatively low value targets would be foolish. Ukraine has already bled Russia of a lot of multi-million dollar guided missiles attacking wooden HIMARS decoys. Hypersonic missiles are really meant to defeat the missile defenses of high value naval assets like US carriers. It is worth throwing $10M missiles at multi-billion dollar carrier. At $1M armoured vehicles? Not so much.