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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

animatronic said:
But let's be realistic. There's no internal investigation of the PC leadership election, nor will there be.
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You presume any leak of damaging info is going to come from what's known inside.

Think outside. The Libs already have had a taste of the tentacles of manipulation with AggregateIQ. I don't believe their cover stories for a moment, but also suspect that they are partially true: AggregateIQ (or some other manifestation of ilk) have been rebuffed from their advances to the Libs (and in the case of BC, actually on record of being used) and like their 'parent corps' (Cambridge Analytica) decided to sell their 'methods' to the Cons. Or someone did, I'm thinking perhaps Leger Marketing?

This ostensibly is what triggered Wylie's volte face.

And the tricks are still only now emerging as to how far a reach they had. How could Ford's handlers not be aware of what was available to them?

There's dirt out there, and if the OntLibs have it on Ford, best they wait until they can maximize the explosion closer to the election when it will make the previous revelations look like Barbie and Ken necking. No amount of logical presentation from the Libs will change the hard core of Ford's support. An explosive scandal will do so enough to destroy any hope for minority, let alone a majority.
Admiral Beez said:
I'd say the PCs are hoping for a partial loss, followed by a Wynne-Horvath minority, that collapses in six months, and they can run a new leader in the redo.
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I could see that, that might have been the scenario used to placate Elliot. It may even have been revealed to her how her 'loss' came about, and the best way to play it. Is it below the present Con Caucus Elite to do such a thing? lol...you only have to look back a few weeks to see that.

The Libs have been playing things rather cool of late. I think good chance they recognize the nasty infighting back-stabbing in the ConCaucus as they do it themselves. And they know there's dirt to be revealed.

We still don't know who set-up the Brown Out circuit. It was far more than just serendipity...
 
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steveintoronto said:
What's totally relevant is that he never received support from one Caucus member.
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He did. Toby Barrett, Haldimand-Norfolk--who's *very* popular in his riding (60%+ in '07 and '11, somewhat less but still absolute majority in 2014)

Oh, and Raymond Cho. Not that he counts or anything...
 
A new poll is out and maybe people can breath a little easier.
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/budget-gives-no-boost-to-liberals-pcs-still-in-commanding-lead/

And looking at the margin of error - that previous poll that showed the Liberals gaining had the largest margin of error, so hopefully it was the aberration. Interesting that of the last 12 polls, the only ones (3) showing the PCs in the 30's are those with the largest margin of error.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls
 
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Positive PC news... cue Jasmine and her insightful comments. Next week when the Liberals start gaining anticipate Jasmine as quiet as a church mouse.
 
CBC has Eric Grenier's poll tracker up for the Ontario Election.

This is a poll aggregator which also weights polls based on sample size, recent-ness, and past accuracy of the pollster.

Often quite accurate, but much like the underlying polls sometimes very far off.

Still, interesting way to keep track of these things.


https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

Cross-posted to the Transit Election Promise Thread
 
Northern Light said:
CBC has Eric Grenier's poll tracker up for the Ontario Election.

This is a poll aggregator which also weights polls based on sample size, recent-ness, and past accuracy of the pollster.

Often quite accurate, but much like the underlying polls sometimes very far off.

Still, interesting way to keep track of these things.


https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

Cross-posted to the Transit Election Promise Thread
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That shows PC's with 42% support (Liberals with 27% and NDP with 23%) - and it does not include today's poll, which is relatively large one, that shows the PCs with 50%.
 
It includes Mainstreet, unless they did two polls (which is quite possible)

The dates of the polls are also interesting, e.g., pre and post various announcements.
 
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