2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[JGHali]

I don't know why anyone is taking these polls seriously. We've seen wildly incorrect predictions on multiple occasions in recent years and methodologies seem to be getting worse not better.

As for the above map, we're talking about ridings with a few hundred PC voters at the most. Not really representative of anything.

 

[PinkLucy]

I have never understood how someone who is traditionally a NDP supporter, say from Northern Ontario ridings, where it’s about the union, can support someone like Ford. I get that hydro rates are nuts in the north, but I think there’s also a whole lot of hate for Toronto aka elites, which Doug plays into, and also dislike of a female in power, and a lesbian to boot. These are the same people who love Charlie Angus, who is everything Ford is not. I lived there for a lot of years, and it just makes no sense from a logical point of view, but when was politics ever logical?

 

[steveintoronto]

I'm still cautiously skeptical about that degree of "massive". And when the prime landslide pollsters to date have been Team Ciano/Kouvalis and Team Quito Maggi, there's reason to do so.

I have never understood how someone who is traditionally a NDP supporter, say from Northern Ontario ridings, where it’s about the union can support someone like Ford. I get that hydro rates are nuts in the north, but I think there’s also a whole lot of hate for Toronto aka elites, which Doug plays into, and also dislike of a female in power, and a lesbian to boot. These are the same people who love Charlie Angus, who is everything Ford is not. I lived there for a lot of years, and it just makes no sense from a logical point of view, but when was politics ever logical?

There's a 'massive disconnect' apparent. And as much as it's 'scary', there's a silver lining to it. It's exactly this belief in being 'omnipotent' that gets a lot of armies defeated. They believe their own BS, and forget the realities that can and will trip them.

Getting back to the forces inflating Ford's tires, I don't believe the assurances from the Libs on this one bit. They just don't know! Wylie is...well...wylie, and after working for the UK Lib-Dems, approached the US Republicans. The man is a mercenary, contrary to some of the depictions on-line. Mercenary with sociopathic tendencies.

Trudeau’s Liberals awarded a $100,000 contract in 2016 to Christopher Wylie
BILL CURRY AND COLIN FREEZE
OTTAWA AND TORONTO
PUBLISHED MARCH 21, 2018UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...ded-a-100000-contract-in-2016-to-christopher/

The Globe gets closer to connecting this with a 'characteristic use by many marketing agencies' of the algorithms and data filtering that would have been used by Ford's 'team'. Was it used by others? Undoubtedly, but Ford scored an 'overamped' product. (Drug lingo). Magic, anyone?

The Consumer's Bureau constantly states:
Be warned - if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is

 

[Jasmine18]

Do people really question that Ford has a lead over Wynne in the polls?

Because out here in the suburbs, I have heard more buzz and desire to throw Wynne out office than the last election easily.

Compared to the typically low turnout elections of the past, Ontario voters are very focused this time and they want to change.

Dismiss Ford as the barbarian at the gates, but trust me he can easily break the gate down.

I don't know why anyone is taking these polls seriously. We've seen wildly incorrect predictions on multiple occasions in recent years and methodologies seem to be getting worse not better.

As for the above map, we're talking about ridings with a few hundred PC voters at the most. Not really representative of anything.

Can you provide any evidence that Wynne is well-liked and popular?

Or you gonna suggest its all fake news?

Wynne is going down, you can ban me for 6 months if she wins, thats how certain I am.

 

[lenaitch]

Fun With Numbers:

I realize this is a gross over-simplification, possibly flawed, and comes from somebody who flunked math with astonishing consistency, but the PC platform, such as it is at this point, promises to find $6B in the sofa. "Efficiencies"; no layoffs.

Total Expenditures 2017-18 = $141.1B
Subtract Health ($53.8B), Education ($26.5B) [both traditionally sacred], and Debt Management ($11.6B) [no discretion] = $49.2B
Subtract 70% for Salaries/Wages/Benefits/Pensions [no layoffs remember - some areas are as high as 80%, I settled on 70] = $14.8B

Using my magic math, $14.8B is the total remaining discretionary program expenditures. Cutting $6B would be a roughly 45% reduction in every single thing the government does or funds (good luck with transit funding), excluding Health and Education. That's going to leave a lot of government employees sitting around playing cribbage. Even if Health and Education is not sacred, I don't think many would try to argue that they are rolling in dough and could endure significant cuts (with the possible exception of LHINs which don't strike me as very value-added but I don't really know). And of course nobody in Toronto would agree to reduction in municipal transfers.

 

[animatronic]

Do people really question that Ford has a lead over Wynne in the polls?

Because out here in the suburbs, I have heard more buzz and desire to throw Wynne out office than the last election easily.

Compared to the typically low turnout elections of the past, Ontario voters are very focused this time and they want to change.

Dismiss Ford as the barbarian at the gates, but trust me he can easily break the gate down.




Can you provide any evidence that Wynne is well-liked and popular?

Or you gonna suggest its all fake news?

Wynne is going down, you can ban me for 6 months if she wins, thats how certain I am.

We’re all grown-ups here. It’s patently obvious that Wynne is intensely disliked in some quarters while Ford is intensely distrusted in others. It’s also quite clear that there is a very vocal element of Messianic Ford supporters, while Wynne supporters are much more subdued. And the NDP is somewhere in the mix as well.

What we can have an intelligent discussion about is the degree to which those five forces (+-Ford, +- Wynne, +Horvath) are impacting polls, headlines and social media today and will impact the ballot box on june 7th.

I’m here for the conversation. I’m not here to evangelize, and I’m not here to be evangelized to.

 

[Jasmine18]

Some quarters, she is likely the most disliked politician in the country it seems ^

 

[Admiral Beez]

Wynne is going down, you can ban me for 6 months if she wins, thats how certain I am.

Hmmmm...... tempting as it is.

 

[narduch]

Some quarters, she is likely the most disliked politician in the country it seems ^

Just yesterday Angus Reid had a new poll out that she is the least liked Premier in the country.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/dwight-ball-popularity-angus-reid-poll-1.4586753

 

[Admiral Beez]

I have never understood how someone who is traditionally a NDP supporter, say from Northern Ontario ridings, where it’s about the union, can support someone like Ford.

Maybe because the Liberals and NDP when in power have done nothing for Northern Ontario other than putting some public sector offices in North Bay and the like, and ON tax credits to those living on reservations, and other programs that do little for those not employed by the province.

Now they're repeating broken promise from 2014, and 2011.

Ontario Liberals promise $1-billion for Ring of Fire
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/new...e-1-billion-for-ring-of-fire/article18835742/

Liberal budget ignores Ring of Fire, says MPP Mantha
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/rof-ignored-in-budget-1.4095005

Meanwhile the Liberals have done nothing to bring investment to the ring of fire and have dramatically increased hydro rates. What's the risk of voting PC? Less investment, higher hydro rates?

 

[JWBF]

Doug seems to be following in Rob's footsteps, i.e., we have a spending problem not a revenue problem. So I don't see Doug and his ilk ever talking about raising taxes -- we all know that's not popular. Doug will continue to trumpet that he is going to find efficiencies. I am sure some money can be saved on pencils, but there aren't enough inefficiencies to fund programs like dental health and mental health, both of which I personally strongly support, in large part because of my work and life experience where I have seen the impacts on both quality of life and employability.

We may not have a revenue problem but after all the "efficiencies", re cuts, then there will be a cycle of bullshit trying to prove how they were right and then find a scapegoat; Robbie did it.

I have to agree. I really don't like the name calling, by either side. And it's not just Trump voters and Fox news sections, it's all over all of the comments sections these days unfortunately.

Yes, this has gone on for years in many businesses. Toilet and Douche, anyone?

Personally, I am more offended by references to individuals, e.g., Justdim, Trudope, Fraud and so on. For me, it turns what I had hoped was intelligent conversation into juvenile name calling. Snowflakes (used by all sides because few know what it means), libtards, deplorables; I find it all brings the level of discourse down to nothing but a name-calling competition.

Dehumanization has been going on for millennia, it's the hallmark of (extreme?) polarity. One example is the British soldiers being told that killing Scots was just like putting down a sick or vicious dog. Unfortunately, the practice is a cycle of ignorance of which kids are the first victims, they become adults...

I have never understood how someone who is traditionally a NDP supporter, say from Northern Ontario ridings, where it’s about the union, can support someone like Ford. I get that hydro rates are nuts in the north, but I think there’s also a whole lot of hate for Toronto aka elites, which Doug plays into, and also dislike of a female in power, and a lesbian to boot. These are the same people who love Charlie Angus, who is everything Ford is not. I lived there for a lot of years, and it just makes no sense from a logical point of view, but when was politics ever logical?

The survival instinct, lies and hearsay can be powerful tools.

I find the term "elites" truly upsetting. I'll have to ask the chauffeur to drive another way to the castle.

Populist talking point.

 

[steveintoronto]

Post #2977

Northern Light said: ↑

Wynne is going down, you can ban me for 6 months if she wins

Hmmmm...... tempting as it is.

That wasn't Northern Light. And I've searched back for pages to find who that is attributable to, with no luck.

Anyone add anything to this?

Addendum:
Just discovered the forum software has a glitch. Had to search line by line, for some reason my browser page search came up empty, there must be a corrupted byte or two in the text.

If I 'quote' the phrase that is falsely attributed to Northern Light above (I instantly recognized that not to be his form or style, let alone his stance) the software attaches his name to it.

Here's the actual source, and I have to quote in full to get the software to correctly attribute it: Post # 2973

Do people really question that Ford has a lead over Wynne in the polls?

Because out here in the suburbs, I have heard more buzz and desire to throw Wynne out office than the last election easily.

Compared to the typically low turnout elections of the past, Ontario voters are very focused this time and they want to change.

Dismiss Ford as the barbarian at the gates, but trust me he can easily break the gate down.




Can you provide any evidence that Wynne is well-liked and popular?

Or you gonna suggest its all fake news?

Wynne is going down, you can ban me for 6 months if she wins, thats how certain I am.

 

[Northern Light]

Hmmmm...... tempting as it is.

Umm, as Steve pointed out; wasn't me who said that.

 

[steveintoronto]

Umm, as Steve pointed out; wasn't me who said that.

In an emotional discussion like this, we're going to have to be careful we get attributes correctly. I think I've seen the software glitch like that before, but I found that being attributed to you so glaringly inaccurate it had to be researched.

The 'glitch' appears to be in the selective quote function, rather than using "reply" which ostensibly captures the complete digital set.

Addendum: I see what might be happening, it just happened to me posting this. The cache of previous 'quotes' remains in the edit cache, and as the user erases the the 'leftover' text, the poster tag for it remains, and results in a false attribution. I'm not fully convinced that's it, as quoting Jasmine's phrase as a test still produced attribution to Northern Light.

Must run, will test that further later.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Umm, as Steve pointed out; wasn't me who said that.

Fixed it. Was probably me moving around multiple citations.