2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

[Thorns_Embrace]

Reminiscent of Joe Mihevc and Brad Bradford's endorsements from John Tory, Jennifer McKelvie, once a progressive candidate in 2014, is getting endorsed by a PC cabinet minister:

https://twitter.com/progresstoronto/status/1051911099212271617

It's so disappointing seeing candidates twisting themselves into ideological pretzels to try and gain political traction.

Was she really a progressive candidate in 2014? She seems like a Dalton McGuinty Liberal at most.
On the CBC vote compass, her score was probably one of the closest to mine of any candidate in any riding(i tried them all), and was closer to me than john Tory for example. I am one of the most conservative people on here as well. So take that for what it is worth.
For what it is worth I do think she shifted right now that she is running against a radical NDP member to get the centrist and conservative votes in Scarborough. If she was running in the old ward model i suspect she would probably come off as more centrist. I read somewhere that she was going to be endorsed by the Toronto & York region labour council under the 47 ward model. It doesn't make a lot of sense unless you are looking at it from a strictly politics angle.

 

[King of Kensington]

Well, Mikey certainly has a more benign personality than his criminal father, his fucked-up mess of a mother, his toxic uncles, his delusional harpy of a grandmother and his megalomaniac (and thankfully dead) grandfather. Which may be damning with faint praise, but there you go. Even so, it would be funny as hell to see him kicked out of office after all of dear ol' Unca Thug's meddling in the current election, especially if it could be pinpointed that Mikey lost in main part specifically because of Dofo's interference. Not that I'm expecting it, but it would serve Thug right.

Speaking of the Fords, I rode a bus through parts of Etobicoke last week, and was honestly disgusted to see signs up supporting Sandro Lisi in his (hopefully quixotic) run for school trustee. Have standards really deteriorated so far that minor league criminal hoodlums and scumbags of his ilk can make a credible run at whatever public offices happen to be available? Ah, who am I kidding? Of course they have...

Oddly enough his election to city council was the second time he was elected to something and was an improvement over the person he replaced.

 

[King of Kensington]

Was she really a progressive candidate in 2014? She seems like a Dalton McGuinty Liberal at most.
On the CBC vote compass, her score was probably one of the closest to mine of any candidate in any riding(i tried them all), and was closer to me than john Tory for example. I am one of the most conservative people on here as well. So take that for what it is worth.
For what it is worth I do think she shifted right now that she is running against a radical NDP member to get the centrist and conservative votes in Scarborough. If she was running in the old ward model i suspect she would probably come off as more centrist. I read somewhere that she was going to be endorsed by the Toronto & York region labour council under the 47 ward model. It doesn't make a lot of sense unless you are looking at it from a strictly politics angle.

Neethan Shan a radical NDPer? LOL.

 

[christiesplits]

Much like Keesmaat, you gotta think that David Caplan's late entrance to the race is hurting him. Hell, given that Minnan Wong was running for a provincial seat in June, he's been practically campaigning non-stop for five months.

 

[EagleEye]

Lets be real for a minute. Scarborough Southwest is a battle of incumbents and also rans. I think the star doesn't like either incumbent and just picked their favorite candidate, and are not trying to pick the dandidate most likely to beat them since there reallyh isn;t a candidate like that.

My personal opinion is Gary Crawford is a better councilor than the star gives him credit for(i think Holland Beradinetti is pretty useless though) so I am a bit disappointed in that endorsement.

How do you figure them to be also rans? I haven't heard of any of them before.

As far as Crawford goes, I saw somewhere that he voted 90% of the time with Tory. That tells me he is more interested in sticking with the guy who gave him a glamourous job more than voting for issues that benefit his ward. He was also in pretty tight with the Fords before that. If we had ranked ballots he would be way down my list, behind Arbour and Holland. They, at least, both live in the ward while he lives 2 wards away.

 

[bobbob911]

Arbour got the Green party vote, which is quite funny considering his last name, but I haven't seen anything about the NDP. Do you have a link? And has anyone endorsed the incumbents? I have been wondering what Tory will do since both Crawford and Holland are on his team, but I expect he would endorse Crawford since he's the budget chief and the two seem to be seen together quite a bit. Arbour is definitely better known in the area compared to the other newbies. He has been a Bluffs advocate for quite some time, I think I met him at the TRCA meetings when they were talking about paving part of the beach and he is the one who got the new bus route from Victoria Park subway to the Scarborough U of T campus going. Of course Crawford took all the credit, just like he did with the bus that goes to Bluffers even though Ainslie was the one that got that going. Outside of him and the incumbents, I've never heard of the other candidates.

For what its worth, I am going to vote for Crawford, for the following weak reasons:
1) He has been surprisingly responsive the few times I have contacted his office, and almost always he responds instead of staff
2) He has been a driving force in increasing arts funding
3) Probably most importantly, his continuing to be Budget Chief for Tory has certainly brought a lot of top-level visibility to the Ward.

I'm not aware that he doesn't live in the ward anymore, but I know he certainly used to for a long time (in fact down the street from my house)

 

[EagleEye]

https://www.toronto.com/news-story/...ncillor-seat-might-be-down-to-two-candidates/

"My sense is it's those two candidates,” said Scarborough Southwest Councillor Gary Crawford, who lives in Ward 44.

Crawford said he’s officially agnostic at this point on who should get the job for the next year, but when pressed he admitted he favours Hart, who has worked for Moeser for more than a year and also is a part of the east Scarborough community.

“He lives in the ward,” said Crawford. “David (Soknacki) lives kind of close to the ward.”

 

[OneCity]

Was she really a progressive candidate in 2014? She seems like a Dalton McGuinty Liberal at most.
On the CBC vote compass, her score was probably one of the closest to mine of any candidate in any riding(i tried them all), and was closer to me than john Tory for example. I am one of the most conservative people on here as well. So take that for what it is worth.
For what it is worth I do think she shifted right now that she is running against a radical NDP member to get the centrist and conservative votes in Scarborough. If she was running in the old ward model i suspect she would probably come off as more centrist. I read somewhere that she was going to be endorsed by the Toronto & York region labour council under the 47 ward model. It doesn't make a lot of sense unless you are looking at it from a strictly politics angle.

Shans radical in the sense he plays identity politics to a dangerous degree, although id say it works for him with some of the lower income immigrants. Otherwise he's been a good involved Councillor. McKelvie is moreless a centrist and there really no room for real centrists in "progressive" Toronto anymore therefore it only made sense to work with one of the other two parties. My former councillor Raymond Cho was really well liked and her only hope to take a bite into NE Malvern was to get his support. Shan will outspend, has Torys support and should lock up most of the support in his old riding. Likely a close race overall

 

[King of Kensington]

Much like Keesmaat, you gotta think that David Caplan's late entrance to the race is hurting him. Hell, given that Minnan Wong was running for a provincial seat in June, he's been practically campaigning non-stop for five months.

Given the likely low turnout in this election, DMW will likely win with fewer votes than what he lost with in the provincial election.

 

[adma]

Even so, it would be funny as hell to see him kicked out of office after all of dear ol' Unca Thug's meddling in the current election, especially if it could be pinpointed that Mikey lost in main part specifically because of Dofo's interference. Not that I'm expecting it, but it would serve Thug right.

I guess it's worth considering that Premier Doug likely has less "pull" than Mayor Tory when it comes to endorsements and affiliations--unless Angelo Carnevale comes up the middle in Ward 2...

 

[King of Kensington]

Who is going to be the "Rosedale candidate" in University-Rosedale? Anyone have a look at the signage there?

 

[adma]

Who is going to be the "Rosedale candidate" in University-Rosedale? Anyone have a look at the signage there?

Somehow, I can picture Joyce Rowlands (with her bloodline and all) having an advantage.

 

[christiesplits]

Somehow, I can picture Joyce Rowlands (with her bloodline and all) having an advantage.

She also ran for the Liberals in Toronto Danforth a while back. The 'Rosedale vote' is so small when you consider the low vote density, that it will likely have a very minimal impact. Maybe a few votes will be won by Twitter grouch Sawison.

 

[Avenue]

radical NDP

Is this Doug Ford's burner account?

 

[animatronic]

How do you figure them to be also rans? I haven't heard of any of them before.

As far as Crawford goes, I saw somewhere that he voted 90% of the time with Tory. That tells me he is more interested in sticking with the guy who gave him a glamourous job more than voting for issues that benefit his ward. He was also in pretty tight with the Fords before that. If we had ranked ballots he would be way down my list, behind Arbour and Holland. They, at least, both live in the ward while he lives 2 wards away.

I’ve done the vote alignment analysis before - other than outliers like Mammo, any two councillors/mayor tend to vote together at least 80% of the time. There’s a lot of routine stuff there - though perhaps less now that RoFo isn’t forcing recorded votes on everything.

You need to look at just the final votes on “major” initiatives, but there’s no automated way to flag which ones really matter.