2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

[christiesplits]

I tip my hat to Vuong who seems to be putting on a good fight. If he were still running against Malik in the old ward he probably would have won.

Well the NDP got pretty much an identical share of the vote in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale in the provincial election. Between Cressy and Layton it'll be interesting to see if the more "likeable" Layton ends up with a significantly higher vote share. Cressy has a lot of opponents running, but he also has less "non-incumbency" territory than Layton does.

I expect Layton to win with a bigger plurality than Cressy. Layton has fewer strong candidates nipping at his heals.

Within the old city limits, I expect Bailao to win with the highest margin, now that Palacio is gone.

Meanwhile, Paul Ainslie and Michael Thompson will likely win big in Scarborough.

 

[Teresa Flanagan]

Vuong has made a strategic error in re-tweeting Ryan O'Connor, Ontario Proud director's tweet, bashing Joe Cressy. Ontario Proud is a pro-conservative/alt-right activist group funded by former conservative staffer Jeff Ballingal that nails progressive candidates. They target low-information voters, and have been accused of outright lying. Pals of Doug Ford and crowd. Vuong goes to the Sun, a dubious publication at best to snitch on Cressy and then re-tweets alt-right views? Needs to talk more about his platform and less about his intense dislike for Joe Cressy. Less negative campaiging. Doesn't he promote himself as a 'positive person'?

 

[OneCity]

Vuong has made a strategic error in re-tweeting Ryan O'Connor, Ontario Proud director's tweet, bashing Joe Cressy. Ontario Proud is a pro-conservative/alt-right activist group funded by former conservative staffer Jeff Ballingal that nails progressive candidates. They target low-information voters, and have been accused of outright lying. Pals of Doug Ford and crowd. Vuong goes to the Sun, a dubious publication at best to snitch on Cressy and then re-tweets alt-right views? Needs to talk more about his platform and less about his intense dislike for Joe Cressy. Less negative campaiging. Doesn't he promote himself as a 'positive person'?

Its a very positive sign to Left leaning candidates like Sarah Climenhaga & Vuong speaking out against party corruption. Sadly the media in the City is polarized so there is no where for new voices to go but to the opposition media when they are being silenced. Its also a very smart move on their behalf to get some free advertising when the mainstream Left purposely propping up the party backed candidates. Really not much option to be heard these days.

The Star/Metroland is simply the opposite side of rag to the Sun and want to prop up Cressy. Positivity and fairness in democracy is not creating a secret tribe as to which the NDP has been well organized for quite some time in this City.

And "Snitch"? Really? We don't need this corrupt crap in our municipal politics from any party and we need more new voices. Not less. So much for the openness, diversity & fairness being preached.

 

[Teresa Flanagan]

Opposition media such as Ontario Proud? Vuong didn't do his homework when he is seen re-tweeting that crowd. Whose side is he on? Aligning himself with a pro-Conservative, pro-Ford crowd? Thought he was a progressive? Is he that motivated to smear Cressy - because this alignment is either an act of desperation or complete thoughtlessness. Either way it's not pretty.

 

[King of Kensington]

Its a very positive sign to Left leaning candidates like Sarah Climenhaga & Vuong speaking out against party corruption. Sadly the media in the City is polarized so there is no where for new voices to go but to the opposition media when they are being silenced. Its also a very smart move on their behalf to get some free advertising when the mainstream Left purposely propping up the party backed candidates. Really not much option to be heard these days.

The Star/Metroland is simply the opposite side of rag to the Sun and want to prop up Cressy. Positivity and fairness in democracy is not creating a secret tribe as to which the NDP has been well organized for quite some time in this City.

And "Snitch"? Really? We don't need this corrupt crap in our municipal politics from any party and we need more new voices. Not less. So much for the openness, diversity & fairness being preached.

The Star is a real newspaper, the Sun is not.

 

[King of Kensington]

Star endorsements, Wards 1-12:

Ward 1 (Etobicoke North) Carol Royer
Ward 2 (Etobicoke Centre) John Campbell
Ward 3 (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) Amber Morley
Ward 4 (Parkdale-High Park) Gord Perks
Ward 5 (York South-Weston) Lekan Olawoye
Ward 6 (York Centre) Maria Augimeri
Ward 7 (Humber River-Black Creek) Anthony Perruzza
Ward 8 (Eglinton-Lawrence) Mike Colle
Ward 9 (Davenport) Ana Bailao
Ward 10 (Spadina-Fort York) Joe Cressy
Ward 11 (University-Rosedale) Mike Layton
Ward 12 (St. Paul's) Josh Matlow

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/edi...are-the-city-builders-that-toronto-needs.html

 

[christiesplits]

Star endorsements, Wards 1-12:

Ward 1 (Etobicoke North) Carol Royer
Ward 2 (Etobicoke Centre) John Campbell
Ward 3 (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) Amber Morley
Ward 4 (Parkdale-High Park) Gord Perks
Ward 5 (York South-Weston) Lekan Olawoye
Ward 6 (York Centre) Maria Augimeri
Ward 7 (Humber River-Black Creek) Anthony Perruzza
Ward 8 (Eglinton-Lawrence) Mike Colle
Ward 9 (Davenport) Ana Bailao
Ward 10 (Spadina-Fort York) Joe Cressy
Ward 11 (University-Rosedale) Mike Layton
Ward 12 (St. Paul's) Josh Matlow

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/edi...are-the-city-builders-that-toronto-needs.html

Interesting decisions, and a few really good ones, including some tough choices, like Olawoye over Padovani, and Perruzza over Tiffany Ford.

Do newspaper endorsements actually matter, though?

For instance, in 2014, Jean-Pierre Boutros was endorsed by The Star, but came a distant fourth. Ishrath Velshi was endorsed by The Star against John Parker and Jon Burnside, and came third.

 

[Thorns_Embrace]

Interesting decisions, and a few really good ones, including some tough choices, like Olawoye over Padovani, and Perruzza over Tiffany Ford.

Do newspaper endorsements actually matter, though?

For instance, in 2014, Jean-Pierre Boutros was endorsed by The Star, but came a distant fourth. Ishrath Velshi was endorsed by The Star against John Parker and Jon Burnside, and came third.

They mean close to nothing(just like most endorsements in my opinion)


Look at the Star if you want proof that they have shifted (further) left just compare their endorsements this year from four years ago.
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/edi...city_council_in_wards_22_to_44_editorial.html
They were able to endorse conservative figures last election. this time around they are endorsing the useless Maria Augimeri over Pasternak who they endorsed in 2014. They also endorsed Stephen Holyday in 2014.
I want to see their endorsements in the next half of the wards. I suspect they won't endorse Denzil Minnan-Wong again and they are going to say how amazing David Caplan is (he isn't).

Also, this was just released by mainstreet.
https://www.scribd.com/document/390858210/Mainstreet-Toronto14october2018
It is not the most useful poll. Most interesting is the Etobocoke north result being so close. I would like Mikey Ford to lose just "for the lolz". I am well aware that Crisanti is one of the only councilors arguable more useless than Ford.

Scarborough North seems like a real mess. Driving through here I can tell it will be very close. may get a 2014 ward 16 type result here. My gut tell me Maggie Chi will win. John Tory needs to endorse somebody to put them over the edge. The poll confirms my thinking that Felicia Samuel is not a front runner here despite what some people are trying to push.

Sidenote, if Awshani Bhardwaj wins it will be a disaster. I noted a lot of signs for him on private property(unlike Samuel who has sign spam on public property only). He was very unimpressive to me at the debate I watched. I do not trust him to be a good councilor.

 

[christiesplits]

According to the CBC, John Tory is set to make more endorsements in the next few days.

Maybe Kevin Vuong over Cressy?
Campbell over Holyday?
Fragedakis over Fletcher?

Also, this was just released by mainstreet.
https://www.scribd.com/document/390858210/Mainstreet-Toronto14october2018
It is not the most useful poll. Most interesting is the Etobocoke north result being so close. I would like Mikey Ford to lose just "for the lolz". I am well aware that Crisanti is one of the only councilors arguable more useless than Ford.

You can bet every Ford Queens Park staffer will be working around the clock for Mikey to avoid embarrassment.

 

[King of Kensington]

Scarborough north seems like a real mess. Driving through here I can tell it will eb very close. may get a 2014 ward 16 type result here. My gut tell em Maggie Chi will win. John Tory needs to endorse somebody to put them over the edge. The poll confirms my thinking that Felicia Samuel is not a front runner here despite what some people are trying to push.

The progressive forces screwed up. Felicia Samuel should have ran in Rouge Park and Neethan Shan in Scarb North.

 

[King of Kensington]

Crisanti may be worse. Mikey seems to be the most decent member of the Ford family, for what it's worth.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

For instance, in 2014, Jean-Pierre Boutros was endorsed by The Star, but came a distant fourth.

The vote difference between 1st place and 4th place in (former) Ward 16 was 1,500 votes.

 

[christiesplits]

The vote difference between 1st place and 4th place in (former) Ward 16 was 1,500 votes.

Thanks for catching that... it wasn't very distant.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Thanks for catching that... it wasn't very distant.

It actually shows how an endorsement from a high profile person like John Tory (as Carmichael-Greb received in exchange to her father John Carmichael endorsing Tory) actually matters a lot in a very tight race.

 

[Allandale25]

Davenport's NDP MPP has endorsed Joe:

https://twitter.com/joemihevc/status/1051854544353673216