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2014 Ontario Provincial Election

Rosario Marchese is by far the best man to represent Trinity-Spadina, but it's so hard to offer my support to him with the way the provincial NDP have behaved. It's equally hard for me to advocate voting against him after he has done such a great job over the years.

Losing their Toronto seats might be just what the NDP need to realise what a horrible path Horwath has taken them on, though.
 
RC8 said:
Rosario Marchese is by far the best man to represent Trinity-Spadina, but it's so hard to offer my support to him with the way the provincial NDP have behaved. It's equally hard for me to advocate voting against him after he has done such a great job over the years.

Losing their Toronto seats might be just what the NDP need to realise what a horrible path Horwath has taken them on, though.
Click to expand...

I voted Friday for Marchese only because I thought that given I'm not a big fan of any of the parties, I'd vote for the candidate. He has worked hard and represents the area well (and I am p'offed by the NDP/Horwath). The provincial Liberals messed up not running a good name in Trinity-Spadina, I had no idea who Han Dong was until very recently (a Liberal staffer). I also strongly considered voting Tim Grant (Green) as he seemed like a good representative and a decent person.
 
Unless the polling is way off, I think it is safe to say that the popular vote will look something like this:

Liberals: High 30s%
PCs: Low 30s%
NDP: Mid to low 20s%
Greens: 5% range

The real question is how these numbers translate into seats. At best the PCs can hope for minority rule, but even that seems unlikely.
 
I'm in a similar predicament in Toronto-Danforth where I'm happy with my NDP incumbent (Peter Tabuns), but have become increasingly weary of the party. I don't have to vote strategically as the PCs aren't a threat here, but can't quite stomach an 'X' next to the NDP either. Their right-ward shift doesn't bother me so much as their populist one which I really think flies in the face of transit and evironmentalism. Looking forward, I'm most impressed by the Liberal plan even though it takes a bitter pill of scandal to swallow. And I've always been big on the Greens provincially and they've received my support a number of times before too. However, I'm starting to get a little worried about all the vote-splitting (more so in other ridings) and think coalescing around parties with a realistic chance of winning makes more sense in a FPTP system. So I'm probably going Liberal.
 
nfitz said:
If you look in the budget, you'll see that revenue is forecast to increase of a few billion or so in the next 3-4 years, simply from economic and population growth. So you don't need anything extreme. Some restraints on operational spending ... so that it doesn't grow as fast as inflation will do.
Click to expand...
SO that's Wynn's plan? Do much of nothing and hope the budget forecasts are correct and that revenue will grow faster than spending, enabling the deficit to be eliminated? You do realize that the budget is a partisan document right? It's specifically written to put the gov't in a good light.
 
I'd like to encourage everyone to vote - vote Liberals, vote PCs, vote NDPs, vote Green, vote for the other parties, even refuse your ballot...

But vote.
It's important we all take the time and make the effort to have a say.

---

Looking ahead:

Based upon current polling it seems like we're heading to another minority government.
I suspect unless the PCs win the most seats, both Hudak and Horwath will be replaced before the next election.
Unfortunately for the Greens it looks like we'll have to wait longer to elect the first provincial MPP.
 
A new pack of polls just came out. First Oracle, I haven't counted their polls this year because they were not involved in the 2011 election so not sure how credible they are. But they have PC 36, Lib 35, NDP 24. The interesting thing is a couple of weeks ago they had the PC up by 4 (36-32). The daily Ekos has came in and the Liberal slide seems to have stopped, it's now PC & Libs at 36% with NDP 18% (yesterday the PC were up by 2, 36-44) The big news of the day is Abacus (who was the second best pollster in 2011) they came out today with Lib 34, PC 31, NDP 28. (they did have the Libs up by 7, 37-30 a couple of weeks ago) The big news here is that the NDP is in striking distance of the second place PC, not sure if I buy that, but it certainly startling.

Newest poll numberst Ranked by 2011 success
Forum (Jun 5) Libs 39^... PC 37^... NDP 17v... Grn 6^
Abacus (Jun 7) Libs 34v... PC 31^... NDP 28^... Grn 5v
Nanos (May 26) Libs 38..... PC 31.... NDP 24..... Grn 5
Ekos (Jun 8) Libs 36^... PC 36^... NDP 18v... Grn 8^
Ipsos (Jun 6) Libs 35^... PC 35v... NDP 26^... Oth 4v

There seems to be a similarity trend with the Libs up by 2 (with the more credible 2011 pollsters) and being tied with the ones with worse record. The NDP number is all over the place though. You have credible Abacus & decent Ekos saying they are nose-diving under 20%. While you have the best pollster Forum and worse pollster Ipsos saying they are surging over 25%. The only thing I can think of is that the NDP is diving hard in Toronto but raising in other popular NDP spots. But it is hard to understand that. I currently predicting Libs with 37%, PC with 34 or 35, NDP with 21 or 22, and Green with 6%

The funniest Data political BS data story analysis of the day has to go with the report that there was 60,000 less votes in advance polls. Which some right-wingers quickly said that's "advantage PC" because Conservatives are more motivated so small turn out is good because Conservative have loyal voters. Then it was brought up that advance polls were open for just 7 days and not the previous election 10, which makes it more 10,000 more voter per day in this year advanced election, which Ford enabler Towhey quickly says "Advantage PC" because it means people are motivated for change lol. It just shows anybody can spin numbers any partisan way they can. I will admit I have no idea if this year will be higher or not. The total numbers are lower so far in advanced poll, but would there be more votes if it was open for another couple of days, I don't know. You can spin it both ways actually,there is no knowing. In general I've heard two possibility about low turn out, the low turn-out helps Conservatives because they are more "hard-core voters" and general voters would probably vote left-of-centre. I also heard that low turnout helps the incumbents. So who knows.
 
RC8 said:
Rosario Marchese is by far the best man to represent Trinity-Spadina, but it's so hard to offer my support to him with the way the provincial NDP have behaved. It's equally hard for me to advocate voting against him after he has done such a great job over the years.

Losing their Toronto seats might be just what the NDP need to realise what a horrible path Horwath has taken them on, though.
Click to expand...

Somehow, that's verging on "vote for Rob Ford because Smitherman's a slimeball hack" territory--albeit a dyslexic version thereof...
 
StatGeek said:
A new pack of polls just came out. First Oracle, I haven't counted their polls this year because they were not involved in the 2011 election so not sure how credible they are. But they have PC 36, Lib 35, NDP 24. The interesting thing is a couple of weeks ago they had the PC up by 4 (36-32). The daily Ekos has came in and the Liberal slide seems to have stopped, it's now PC & Libs at 36% with NDP 18% (yesterday the PC were up by 2, 36-44) The big news of the day is Abacus (who was the second best pollster in 2011) they came out today with Lib 34, PC 31, NDP 28. (they did have the Libs up by 7, 37-30 a couple of weeks ago) The big news here is that the NDP is in striking distance of the second place PC, not sure if I buy that, but it certainly startling.

Newest poll numberst Ranked by 2011 success
Forum (Jun 5) Libs 39^... PC 37^... NDP 17v... Grn 6^
Abacus (Jun 7) Libs 34v... PC 31^... NDP 28^... Grn 5v
Nanos (May 26) Libs 38..... PC 31.... NDP 24..... Grn 5
Ekos (Jun 8) Libs 36^... PC 36^... NDP 18v... Grn 8^
Ipsos (Jun 6) Libs 35^... PC 35v... NDP 26^... Oth 4v

There seems to be a similarity trend with the Libs up by 2 (with the more credible 2011 pollsters) and being tied with the ones with worse record. The NDP number is all over the place though. You have credible Abacus & decent Ekos saying they are nose-diving under 20%. While you have the best pollster Forum and worse pollster Ipsos saying they are surging over 25%. The only thing I can think of is that the NDP is diving hard in Toronto but raising in other popular NDP spots. But it is hard to understand that. I currently predicting Libs with 37%, PC with 34 or 35, NDP with 21 or 22, and Green with 6%

The funniest Data political BS data story analysis of the day has to go with the report that there was 60,000 less votes in advance polls. Which some right-wingers quickly said that's "advantage PC" because Conservatives are more motivated so small turn out is good because Conservative have loyal voters. Then it was brought up that advance polls were open for just 7 days and not the previous election 10, which makes it more 10,000 more voter per day in this year advanced election, which Ford enabler Towhey quickly says "Advantage PC" because it means people are motivated for change lol. It just shows anybody can spin numbers any partisan way they can. I will admit I have no idea if this year will be higher or not. The total numbers are lower so far in advanced poll, but would there be more votes if it was open for another couple of days, I don't know. You can spin it both ways actually,there is no knowing. In general I've heard two possibility about low turn out, the low turn-out helps Conservatives because they are more "hard-core voters" and general voters would probably vote left-of-centre. I also heard that low turnout helps the incumbents. So who knows.
Click to expand...

I went to an advanced poll to vote Liberal. So there?

Also FWIW, past trends are not always an indication of future trends. While there is nothing wrong with suggesting it to be a possibility, you should not count out the other polls because of it. This is especially true since you are focusing on their performance solely on the last election, and extrapolating from there.

(Though I likely missed a post or two where you addressed said concerns, especially since you seem to know what you are talking about. Still, such disclaimer is more than warranted.)
 
So we're down to the last stretch- at this point, the most important part for any campaign is to Get out the Vote (GOTV). No one knows who will win, but disturbingly enough, it seems that Liberal voters are simply less enaged than their Conservative counterparts. The negative campaign also seems to be having an effect on voters. Take this into consideration:

OntarioNewsWatch.com‏@OntNewsWatch said:
Ontario voter turnout down 6% in advance polls; Multiple stops today for party leaders as Ontario election draws near;
Click to expand...

David Akin @davidakin said:
Riding of Simcoe-Grey (#PCPO incumbent) top advance voter turnout with 9,009. Kingston & Islands (#OLP incumbent) #2 with 8,565 adv votes;
Click to expand...

David Akin @davidakin said:
3 ridings with lowest advance turnout all #OLP territory: York West - 1,691 | Etobicoke North - 2,029 | York South-Weston - 2,143
Click to expand...

A Hudak government is definitely possible, and we need to be prepared for it.

Warren Kinsella said:
Why does Warren think Tim Hudak is going to win?
- The Conservative vote base is smaller but way, way more motivated.
- 75 per cent of the province want change.
- Wynne's campaign has been "mad as hell" bizarro, and Horwath's under-funded.
- HARPER'S MACHINE IS HELPING THE PC GOTV EFFORT FOR FIRST TIME IN A DECADE.
Click to expand...
http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/06/h...en-thinks-tim-hudak-is-going-to-win/#comments

In this case Warren Kinsella makes a note concerning the campaign:

Warren Kinsella said:
The person running it ran Ignatieff’s in 2011. Hudak’s is being overseen by the Harper guys.

You do the math.
Click to expand...
http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/06/what-is-gotv/

Of course, it's Warren Kinsella so take it with a spoonful of salt if you so wish. But it's still concerning that we could potentially have an intertwined Hudak and Harper government.
 
I went this weekend to St. Johns, NL. Saw a very impressive iceberg near Cape Spear.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/breathtaking-banner-year-for-icebergs-off-n-l-1.1859411

The point is that I was describing to some locals that I came about 20 years ago and had a great time. They replied; "back then we were the have-not province", or at least that's what I thought they said - the accent was a bit hard to understand. It looks like others in Canada have noticed the demise of Ontario.
 
No offence to them (and having oil helps) but they really should look at the equalization payment per capita even now before commenting.

AoD
 
I am just shocked that anybody wants to talk about Ontario politics that doesn't consist of "What the heck is up with you guys and that crack smoking Mayor". That's the only question I hear, which normally results of me trying to explain the difference of the Toronto they know and the suburbs that voted Ford to usually to a glaze look on their eye. Then the topic goes quickly to the Leafs which I again blame on Milton. :cool:

Electrify, I totally agree with what you said. I try to average all polls (that have a previous record) and put some weight on the ones that were more successful, but I do take every poll into account. I would like to go back and look at the success records of longer than last year but Ipsos is the only current polling company that did polling for the 2007 election. Now your point is totally accurate just because somebody had a good prediction one election doesn't automatically mean they will be great the next election and Ipsos is a perfect example of that as they had a great 2007 but a very poor 2011. So I do like giving the benefit of the doubt to the recent successful pollsters but of course average everything out if most disagree. Below you can see an example of that.

Now polls for today Ekos and Forum. Ranked by success of 2011
Forum (Jun 9) Libs 42^... PC 35v... NDP 19^... Grn 3v
Abacus (Jun 7) Libs 34v... PC 31^... NDP 28^... Grn 5v
Nanos (May 26) Libs 38..... PC 31.... NDP 24..... Grn 5
Ekos (Jun 9) Libs 35v. PC 35v... NDP 20^.. Grn 7v
Ipsos (Jun 6) Libs 35^... PC 35v... NDP 26^... Oth 4v

My personal calculation are currently Lib 37, PC 35, NDP 23, Grn 4. Even though I like Forum a lot I'd like to see a bit more evidence they are breaking away as Forum suggest and it's not a blip. Would like to see Nanos get off their butt and do another poll, come on! Did you hear that in London Ont there are stories of the PC candidate giving Liberal sign homeowners a fake election location letter, just like the federal Pierre Poutine. They got away with it federally, why not do it here. Disgusting.
 
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