2014 Ontario Provincial Election

[TrickyRicky]

nfitz, I don't know the numbers on how low or high our taxes are relative to other provinces but I am not opposed to the idea of raising taxes and user fees.

That is not what the Wynne Liberals are proposing. Yes there are tax increases on high income earners but these do nothing to plug the fiscal gap. Hudak for all the talk about his unrealistic plan is still the only major party leader offering a realistic solution to closing the fiscal gap, through cuts. In other words for all his ridiculous ideological jibber jabber he is the only one offering anything reasonable going forward. If Wynne were promising major across the board tax increases and user fee increases then I would actually consider voting for her. Not because I want tax increases but because it would be an honest plan. What we are getting from her is just more uncertainty, lies, and crass political calculations.

 

[jje1000]

nfitz, I don't know the numbers on how low or high our taxes are relative to other provinces but I am not opposed to the idea of raising taxes and user fees.

That is not what the Wynne Liberals are proposing. Yes there are tax increases on high income earners but these do nothing to plug the fiscal gap. Hudak for all the talk about his unrealistic plan is still the only major party leader offering a realistic solution to closing the fiscal gap, through cuts. In other words for all his ridiculous ideological jibber jabber he is the only one offering anything reasonable going forward. If Wynne were promising major across the board tax increases and user fee increases then I would actually consider voting for her. Not because I want tax increases but because it would be an honest plan. What we are getting from her is just more uncertainty, lies, and crass political calculations.

Deficit reduction at the cost of what? I also want the deficit eliminated before it begins to cause irreparable harm to this province, but I feel that Hudak's potential to cancel transit improvements, dismantle the TTC and the Greenbelt, privatize more assets and download costs onto municipalities outweights that.

I believe that the Hudak Conservatives would be linked directly to Harper's Conservatives, and I don't want any more of that American-style neoconservatism partisanship tricking northwards from the States and westwards from Ottawa. In my opinion, I think Hudak has a hidden intentions that we don't know of. He's promising us all these clean cuts to government and job creation, but I really wonder what else lurks under the polished veneer. That he even proposed things like chain gangs and right-to-work legislation shows that things like that have crossed that party's mind, and that they could potentially return in one way or another.

Now, I'm not advocating against not voting for the conservatives forever, but the risks are simply too high this time around. We are potentially about to see the transit systems we need (DRL, GO Electrification) be funded, and I don't want things like that to slip out of our hands. Maybe next time, when the Progressive Conservatives purge themselves of the far-right sector will they be the chosen party.

The Globe endorses PC too, maybe with some doubt, but they seem to conclude that the Liberals must go.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-for-a-conservative-minority/article19047636/

Yeah I saw that. Kind of disappointing as you either advocate for a party or you don't, you shouldn't really half-heartedly advocate for a government and hope for a minority government. But of course, the Globe's advocated for Harper three times around so it's not that surprising.

 

[nfitz]

nfitz, I don't know the numbers on how low or high our taxes are relative to other provinces but I am not opposed to the idea of raising taxes and user fees.

That is not what the Wynne Liberals are proposing.

More to the point, they aren't, unlike Hudak, promising large income and corporate tax cuts.

What we are getting from her is just more uncertainty, lies, and crass political calculations.

As opposed to Hudak's million job-year scam? If Hudak is willing to lie so blatantly during the campaign, what's he going to do if he get's into power? Though I suspect he will fulfil his promise of cancelling (or at least long-delaying) the Eglinton line.

 

[StatGeek]

What are the NDP and PC stance on ranked ballot system for municipalities in Ontario?

Hudak reply to your question. “No (he’s against it). I think that voters should decide who they want to be elected, whoever gets the most votes wins.â€... I don't even know what F that means. Ranked ballots do exactly that having at least 50% consider you a possible choice therefore getting most votes and represents the majority. Not the fake 38% majority everybody wants to grab and have the other 60% split among other parties. Hudak answer is as generic and unintelligent as Fords reasoning.

I am so disappointed in the G&M endorsement (where that liberal media I keep hearing about) even if it's done with conditions. Yes the Liberals are not perfect but the current Conservative mentality is so divisive that unless they lose it will just encourage to double down on their extremism (see federally, see Ford) This endorsement reeks of a Rob Ford endorsement when when people said "Okay his numbers are kinda fudgy and exaggerated, and he's a bit of a divisive a-hole. But hey remember the garbage strike and we need change, and how bad could it be". This logic is being repeated here. The triple headed monster is enough to make me physically ill.

Some new polling numbers came out. Ranked by 2011 success
Forum (Jun 5) Libs 39^... PC 37^... NDP 17v... Grn 6^
Abacus (May 31) Libs 37^... PC 30v... NDP 24v... Grn 7^
Nanos (May 26) Libs 38..... PC 31.... NDP 24..... Grn 5
Ekos (Jun 6) Libs 34=... PC 36^... NDP 21=... Grn 7v
Ipsos (Jun 6) Libs 35^... PC 35v... NDP 26^... Oth 4v

So it looks like Ekos last poll wasn't a blip, PC has a slight edge over the Libs on their poll (even though their likely voters have Libs up by 5) Ipsos is going the other way, who had the PC up by a bunch and then a bit is now tied with the Libs (yet their likely voters have PC up by 8. BTW I ignore both Ekos and Ipsos likely numbers) The most important number that came out yesterday is Forum (who had the most success in 2011) who had the Libs up by a bunch a few weeks back, last week had it tied and the current poll has the Libs up by two. The current polls it's as close as it can get with PC up by two in Ekos. Liberals up by two in Forum and tied in Ipsos. If you take Abacus and Nanos into account that average out to about Lib lead by 3 or 4, but it's been over a week since they did anything, hopefully something soon to get some newer numbers in. The Forum NDP numbers are interesting with a very low 17%. An interesting note that it doesn't seem like ALL NDP votes go to the Liberals as the PC went up as well with the NDP nose dive. It seems like NDP /Green voters go Liberal 3 to 1 vs PC. So still better for the Liberals if NDP drops.

 

[Admiral Beez]

More to the point, they aren't, unlike Hudak, promising large income and corporate tax cuts.

As opposed to Hudak's million job-year scam? If Hudak is willing to lie so blatantly during the campaign, what's he going to do if he get's into power? Though I suspect he will fulfil his promise of cancelling (or at least long-delaying) the Eglinton line.

Okay, but at least we know what Hudak is going to do, i.e. cut taxes and spending. Wynne has also promised to eliminate the deficit, http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/6/3/Wynnes-budget-foreshadows-biggest-Ontario-cuts-since-1995-.aspx The only way she can do this is through major revenue increases or spending cuts. So, choose your poison.

 

[jje1000]

Okay, but at least we know what Hudak is going to do, i.e. cut taxes and spending.

I have a gut feeling that we don't know all he's going to do. Remember how we thought Ford was a straight-shootin' honest fella that was going to set city hall straight? And how the Harper Conservatives were the only honest choice in the Ad-Scam-plagued Ottawa?

Hudak's Conservatives are fairly close to the Harper Conservatives (after all, a large portion of Harper's cabinet is from the Harris administration and Baird has helped Hudak, I heard). And Hudak hasn't hesitated to align himself with the Fords.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Hudak reply to your question. “No (he’s against it). I think that voters should decide who they want to be elected, whoever gets the most votes wins.”... I don't even know what F that means. Ranked ballots do exactly that having at least 50% consider you a possible choice therefore getting most votes and represents the majority. Not the fake 38% majority everybody wants to grab and have the other 60% split among other parties. Hudak answer is as generic and unintelligent as Fords reasoning.

I am so disappointed in the G&M endorsement (where that liberal media I keep hearing about) even if it's done with conditions. Yes the Liberals are not perfect but the current Conservative mentality is so divisive that unless they lose it will just encourage to double down on their extremism (see federally, see Ford) This endorsement reeks of a Rob Ford endorsement when when people said "Okay his numbers are kinda fudgy and exaggerated, and he's a bit of a divisive a-hole. But hey remember the garbage strike and we need change, and how bad could it be". This logic is being repeated here. The triple headed monster is enough to make me physically ill.

Some new polling numbers came out. Ranked by 2011 success
Forum (Jun 5) Libs 39^... PC 37^... NDP 17v... Grn 6^
Abacus (May 31) Libs 37^... PC 30v... NDP 24v... Grn 7^
Nanos (May 26) Libs 38..... PC 31.... NDP 24..... Grn 5
Ekos (Jun 6) Libs 34=... PC 36^... NDP 21=... Grn 7v
Ipsos (Jun 6) Libs 35^... PC 35v... NDP 26^... Oth 4v

So it looks like Ekos last poll wasn't a blip, PC has a slight edge over the Libs on their poll (even though their likely voters have Libs up by 5) Ipsos is going the other way, who had the PC up by a bunch and then a bit is now tied with the Libs (yet their likely voters have PC up by 8. BTW I ignore both Ekos and Ipsos likely numbers) The most important number that came out yesterday is Forum (who had the most success in 2011) who had the Libs up by a bunch a few weeks back, last week had it tied and the current poll has the Libs up by two. The current polls it's as close as it can get with PC up by two in Ekos. Liberals up by two in Forum and tied in Ipsos. If you take Abacus and Nanos into account that average out to about Lib lead by 3 or 4, but it's been over a week since they did anything, hopefully something soon to get some newer numbers in. The Forum NDP numbers are interesting with a very low 17%. An interesting note that it doesn't seem like ALL NDP votes go to the Liberals as the PC went up as well with the NDP nose dive. It seems like NDP /Green voters go Liberal 3 to 1 vs PC. So still better for the Liberals if NDP drops.

Suprising because I heard the PC voters had the NDP as their number 2 choice!

 

[Admiral Beez]

I have a gut feeling that we don't know all he's going to do. .

Yeah, but we haven't a clue or hint of what Wynn will do to accomplish her deficit elimination promise. I just wish she would tell us what she is going to do so we could compare to Hudak.

 

[RC8]

Most of your post, without knowing who I am what I do or what my knowledge base is, is just too condescending an patronizing to respond to and I was going to just ignore it.

I feel though that some might read it and assume that since that bolded part was uncontested it must therefore be true.

Compare this chart to the one for Ontario above and tell me it follows the same pattern.

It follows the exact same pattern. The only difference is in the 'projection', which as we have seen in the past with numerous governments is far from reliable and mostly wishful thinking.

 

[jje1000]

Yeah, but we haven't a clue or hint of what Wynn will do to accomplish her deficit elimination promise. I just wish she would tell us what she is going to do so we could compare to Hudak.

I know, which is a big sticking point for me. I'd hope she would at least mention something about deficit reduction instead of returning to the previous unsustainable budget.

But, and this is a big but, Hudak's transit propositions make it difficult to vote for him, and his association with the Harris and Harper government both makes it difficult for me to vote for him and allows me to make an educated guess as to what a Hudak government would look like.

Transit can't wait any longer. We waited 20 years after Network2011 was cancelled and costs have already ballooned. The deficit will be fine as it's actively being controlled, but our lengthening commute is slowing eroding Toronto's standing in the world as a good place to live and do business.

 

[TOareaFan]

It follows the exact same pattern. The only difference is in the 'projection', which as we have seen in the past with numerous governments is far from reliable and mostly wishful thinking.

The "exact same pattern"....let's take out the projections and the complexity of comparing a bar chart to a line graph and look at the numbers to 2013/2014 in the same format:

Even forgetting that Ontario is continuing to increase their deficits while the federal government is eliminating theirs.....if you think the Ontario one sloping up and the federal one being flat for years is exactly the same....we are seeing something entirely different here and I am not sure there is much point in continuing the discussion.

 

[StatGeek]

I just wrote this poll in a Hudak thread but I think it's so important (one of the most interesting polls this election season) I would like to repeat it here. On June 5 Forum research asked if there is a minority government what should the NDP do. 50% of the public would want a NDP/Liberal coalition to keep Hudak out of the Premiere chair. 60% of NDP'ers would support a coalition with the Liberals. On the other hand only about 33% of the general public would want a NDP/PC coalition & just about 15% of NDP would support that. This shows that the Liberals still have that 50% acceptability even for their faults but the PC are so right-wing that they are an island to themselves, unfortunately the current system allows a win with 35% and a majority with 38% which is what the PC are going for. This poll also shows how screwed up Horwath is to call an election when 60% of her party is okay with the status quo

In a PC minority, who should NDP support
Support the Liberals: 49% (58% of NDP supporters agree with this)
Support the PC's : 33% ( 14% o NDP supporters agree with this)
Support Neither : 10% (10% of NDP supporters agree with this)
Don't know : 8% (18% of NDP supporters agree with this)

In a Liberal minority, who should NDP support
Support the Liberals: 51% (62% of NDP supporters agree with this)
Support the PC's : 32% ( 17% o NDP supporters agree with this)
Support Neither : 11% ( 9% of NDP supporters agree with this
Don't know: 6% (12% of NDP supporter agree with this)

Forum also did some local riding poll It's a bit dated as it was done mostly last weekend before the debate. Here is some interesting local results so far. Take this with a grain of salt because local polling is always a bit iffy. But interesting non-the-less.
Davenport: Schein (NDP-inc) 38%... Martins (Lib) 44%... Daniel (PC) 11%
Etob-Lkeshore: Holyday (PC-inc) 39%... Milczyn (Lib) 49%... Choo (NDP) 7% (please be true lol)
Trinity-Spa: Marchese (NDP-inc) 36%... Dong (Lib) 37%.... Scott (PC) 19%

 

[nfitz]

Okay, but at least we know what Hudak is going to do, i.e. cut taxes and spending. Wynne has also promised to eliminate the deficit, http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/6/3/Wynnes-budget-foreshadows-biggest-Ontario-cuts-since-1995-.aspx The only way she can do this is through major revenue increases or spending cuts.

If you look in the budget, you'll see that revenue is forecast to increase of a few billion or so in the next 3-4 years, simply from economic and population growth. So you don't need anything extreme. Some restraints on operational spending ... so that it doesn't grow as fast as inflation will do.

It's not Hudak's promise to balance the budget in itself that's extreme; it's his promise to do so earlier than expected AND signfiicantly decrease income taxes and corporate taxes.

So, choose your poison.

I only see one poison ... Hudak whose willing to massively cut services and transit to fund tax breaks for big banks and the rich.

 

[BurlOak]

Metrolinx CEO Bruce McCuaig worried story might expose agency worker's Liberal Party links

E-mails show the Sun’s questions set off a flurry of activity and concern over what the story might say. But, beyond the damaging details of programs run amok, McCuaig said the Sun might have something else.

“The story might focus on some of the people who have used the tickets and their links to the Liberal party,†McCuaig wrote in an e-mail on Aug. 15, 2013, days before the story was published.

This sponsorship thing is small potatoes, but the Liberals ties to Metrolinx does bring up many questions. It would be nice to get a new government in place to shine some real light on the decade of Liberals rule.

 

[JasonParis]

Davenport: Schein (NDP-inc) 38%... Martins (Lib) 44%... Daniel (PC) 11%
Etob-Lkeshore: Holyday (PC-inc) 39%... Milczyn (Lib) 49%... Choo (NDP) 7% (please be true lol)
Trinity-Spa: Marchese (NDP-inc) 36%... Dong (Lib) 37%.... Scott (PC) 19%

I certainly hope #2 comes to fruition. Regardless of what happens province-wide, a return of Fortress Toronto would make me proud. As for #1 and #3 being true on election day, that would certainly be devastating for the NDP.