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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Jasmine18 said:
How is Wynne not a progressive?
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Oh, please. She's very typical of her kind of politician: Wynne's what passes for a "moderate" in mainstream conservative and supposedly left-of-centre parties these days, which is to say she's a centrist, a corporatist and a neoliberal. Which means she attempts to spray paint a non-threatening 'progressive' veneer over an agenda that solidly supports the economic powers that be. What else do you suppose the Hydro sale was all about? Selling off public utilities to the (usually lowest) bidder is all part of our glorious Free Market System, isn't it? Here we have a perfect example of a supposed liberal doing the right's dirty work for them, and how does the average right wing voter respond? Why, by screeching non-stop that she's too "far left," naturally, as well as spewing the standard diapers-soiling diatribes about eve-ull taxes that I used to see when I read the Sun when I was a kid back in the 80's.

Jasmine18 said:
I would argue a lot of the anger towards her is because she is too far left and is seen rightly or wrongly as massively increasing taxes on everyone who is not very poor.
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Well then, you don't know what you're talking about, do you, dear? I know people here have pointed out to you before that taxes have gone down under the Liberals, but you've blithely ignored inconvenient facts in favor of maintaining your self-pitying fantasies about "far left" Wynne "massively" increasing taxes, which she did not do. But then, you're clearly not arguing in good faith.
 
Of course Income taxes have gone down under the liberals but many other user fees and things like cap and trade would be seen in the eyes of the public as increased taxes.

I do not think the taxes would be much of an issue if the liberals did not seem so reckless or wasteful of our money or perceived to be as such.


I think Wynne is to the far left or she has been lately but you are right the far left in this country want to give free stuff to everyone but not have a plan to pay for it.
 
Jasmine18 said:
I do not think the taxes would be much of an issue if the liberals did not seem so reckless or wasteful of our money or perceived to be as such.
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I doubt it. Unfortunately, too many people don't understand that things cost money and have poor reactionary attitudes towards any taxes. Too many people think that they have a right to this and that service without thinking long enough to realise that it has to be paid for by someone. Roads, hospitals, militaries, schools, etc don't fall out of the sky, no matter how hard you pray (ok, possibly the militaries, but then that's just a bad scene).

People don't get it. They get that they are tens of thousands of dollars in debt (due to their own actions) and that they want to be able to keep as much of their incomes as possible to be able to carry said debt and, presumably "take care of themselves and their families" by buying more and larger TVs, cars, latest consumer electronics, whatever the Joneses have got going on.

A large number of people suffer from a short-sightedness caused by self-interest. *shrug* Not sure what can be done about that. Surely selling the furniture to keep the house is stupid as is buying more furniture to make the house more comfy only to have to sell the house to pay for the new furniture.
 
pman said:
“Dear?” Condescending, no?
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Maybe, but then again that post was laying blame for Jasmine pointing out why people think of Wynne a certain way at Jasmine's feet as if she feels that way which she has never said she does.

Still having her positioned be mischaracterised. Jasmine, what'd you do to these people? hahahaaaaaa
 
MTown said:
I doubt it. Unfortunately, too many people don't understand that things cost money and have poor reactionary attitudes towards any taxes. Too many people think that they have a right to this and that service without thinking long enough to realise that it has to be paid for by someone. Roads, hospitals, militaries, schools, etc don't fall out of the sky, no matter how hard you pray (ok, possibly the militaries, but then that's just a bad scene).

People don't get it. They get that they are tens of thousands of dollars in debt (due to their own actions) and that they want to be able to keep as much of their incomes as possible to be able to carry said debt and, presumably "take care of themselves and their families" by buying more and larger TVs, cars, latest consumer electronics, whatever the Joneses have got going on.

A large number of people suffer from a short-sightedness caused by self-interest. *shrug* Not sure what can be done about that. Surely selling the furniture to keep the house is stupid as is buying more furniture to make the house more comfy only to have to sell the house to pay for the new furniture.
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Well, in honesty, Ontario hasn't done that well in terms of income growth froom 2005-2015. Quebec of all provinces is doing better than us.
The median income in Ontario was $74,287 in 2015, up just 3.8 per cent over the last decade, the slowest growth of any province or territory during that time.
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Median employment income in Ontario decreased by 2.3 percent over the same period, the only negative growth rate among all provinces
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The last decade has also seen a rise in low-income rates in Ontario’s urban centres, led by London (17 per cent, up from 13 per cent) and Windsor (17.5 per cent, up from 14 per cent). The Toronto region’s low-income rate rose to 15.6 per cent from 14.1 per cent a decade ago.
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https://www.thestar.com/news/canada...manufacturing-downturn-statistics-canada.html
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170913/dq170913a-eng.pdf

When people don't see that much of an income boost- that combined, with inflationary pressures ("Wow why is everything so expensive now?") and perceived taxes ("Why do I have to pay X & Y now?") can create a sense of uncertainty and lack of faith in the Liberals' economic policy.

That, plus a nice bit of doom and gloom from the Ontario business boards over Wynne's policies.
Some of the 2018 OER highlights on the outlook of Ontario’s economy include:
  • Businesses are losing confidence in Ontario’s economy. In 2012, 47 percent of businesses reported they were confident in Ontario’s economic outlook. Today, that share has been halved, as only 23 percent of businesses are confident in the economy.
  • Nearly two-thirds of businesses cite input costs for their lack of confidence, such as the price of electricity, taxes, and the increase in minimum wage. This is compared to only 31 percent who name competitive barriers such as declining consumer demand or changing client behaviour.
  • One quarter of small businesses in Ontario project declining revenue in 2018, which is twice the rate of large firms (26 percent vs. 13 percent). Given that the majority of businesses in this province are small, this will likely have a net-negative impact on economic growth.
  • The production of goods and services represents a shrinking contributor to business prosperity. Production activities represent only 15.3 percent of business prosperity, meaning that prosperity is increasingly becoming more dependent upon financial activities instead of productive activities. This is indicative of Ontario possessing a higher-risk operating environment.
    Our historically low unemployment rate is a red herring, as more individuals remove themselves from the workforce or simply give up the search. The percentage of Ontarians not participating in the labour force is at a recent high of 35 percent, contributing to employers’ on-going struggle to attract talent.
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http://www.occ.ca/mediareleases/inp...ed-profits-fall-ontario-economic-report-2018/
 
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Also tangentially interesting that could be applied to Ontario in terms of its program-heavy budgeting:

But veteran pollster Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Affairs, says the Liberals are also failing at the essential task of selling Morneau’s plausible case that the economy is purring. He notes that a lot of their messaging has stressed inequality and injustice, like women still not being fairly paid compared to men, the rich raking in more than their share and the perennial, profound grievances of Indigenous communities.

“They’re running around talking about people being left out,” Bricker says. “If they believe happy days are here again on the economy, that’s certainly not what their policies are saying, not what their rhetoric is. If they think people are going to pick up on this intuitively, time has shown that is not a good communications strategy.”
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Packaging all sorts of socially progressive policy as smart long-term economic strategy is an ongoing Liberal storytelling challenge.
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Wynne’s Liberals, even more than their federal cousins, express frustration over what they see as a baffling failure of voter opinion to reflect good economic news. They’ve got a point. Ontario has posted enviable GDP growth for four years running, including a solid 2.7 per cent last year.
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Maybe deeper factors are feeding unease. Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, tracks the growth of precarious, lower-quality jobs—trends hidden beneath the widely cited unemployment and job-creation stats. “The fact that people are feeling vulnerable when the job market is at its peak tells you that it will feel much worse when the job market slows down,” Tal says.
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http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ott...-failing-to-turn-economic-success-into-votes/

I wonder if the Ontario Liberal's focus on social issues this time counteracts their message of economic success. Basically a "If the economy is doing so well, why do some people seem to need more help?" sort of thing.

Tal's note also nicely slots into the Statscan reports above- basically that economic growth in Ontario has increased, but not a lot of people seem to be experiencing it.
 
tiffer24 said:
So, I guess he's not sick...

PCs say they're removing MPP @Michaelharrispc from caucus based on 2013 complaint of intern.

Breaking: Michael Harris been turfed from@OntarioPCPartycaucus three days after he was quietly disqualified from being a candidate. Party put out notice two hours after the@TorontoStar made inquiries.
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Apparently his wife is running for the nomination to replace him.
 
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Its still early but its looking like last weeks gain by the Liberals was a dead cat bounce.

The Liberals probably made too many promises for new spending. They aren't believable anymore.

And people are so pissed at the Liberals and want Wynne out so bad they don't seem to care that Ford sounds like a bumbling idiot that has no idea what he's talking about.
 
PinkLucy said:
Didn't a recent poll show PCs at 50%? And that looks like a significant gain for the NDP if memory serves.

Answering my own question: yes, the Mainstreet Poll showed the 50%.

The Poll Tracker is helpful at looking at the various polls that are happening. https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
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While it is always difficult to translate vote percentages into seat counts, it is very telling that Ford is on his way potentially to 89 seats, which is 7 more than the massive Mike Harris majority in 1995 (in a smaller legislature too).
 
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