2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[christiesplits]

Its still early but its looking like last weeks gain by the Liberals was a dead cat bounce.

The Liberals probably made too many promises for new spending. They aren't believable anymore.

And people are so pissed at the Liberals and want Wynne out so bad they don't seem to care that Ford sounds like a bumbling idiot that has no idea what he's talking about.

I think a great example of just how low the prospects are for the Liberals is their inability to find a star candidate in Toronto Centre.

Historically, it's been a huge launching pad for senior cabinet members-in-waiting, both federal and provincially. There were rumours that they were reaching out to KWT and David Miller. The Liberals seem to have given up and now have a run-of-the-mill nomination with low level party insiders.

 

[narduch]

I think a great example of just how low the prospects are for the Liberals is their inability to find a star candidate in Toronto Centre.

Historically, it's been a huge launching pad for senior cabinet members-in-waiting, both federal and provincially. There were rumours that they were reaching out to KWT and David Miller. The Liberals seem to have given up and now have a run-of-the-mill nomination with low level party insiders.

Tons of cabinet ministers calling it quits too.

Who's left with any name recognition? Del Duca and Souza maybe?

 

[christiesplits]

Tons of cabinet ministers calling it quits too.

Who's left with any name recognition? Del Duca and Souza maybe?

The only big names remaining are the ones who want Wynne's job.

 

[John_Dee]

I suppose it's nice that Dofo felt it necessary to distance himself and the party from Allen's creepy brand of mouth-foaming crazy. She must be feeling a tad betrayed just now.

 

[christiesplits]

I suppose it's nice that Dofo felt it necessary to distance himself and the party from Allen's creepy brand of mouth-foaming crazy. She must be feeling a tad betrayed just now.

The Liberals are so deep in the dumps right now, I don't even think the Ontario PCs can mess this up.

 

[narduch]

The Liberals are so deep in the dumps right now, I don't even think the Ontario PCs can mess this up.

Ya. If she wins her seat she won't care.

 

[Hopkins123]

It's karma. The so-called "subway champions" have failed to deliver any meaningful transit upgrades to Toronto, much less the Province at large. Transit should be a top priority in this election, yet gets hardly any coverage. Even Torontonians would be foolish to give their trust to Wynne and her acolytes again. Everyone thinking the Liberals' will build them a DRL anytime soon has been duped.

 

[Northern Light]

Personal preferences aside, I think some of the polling we're seeing, and predictive seat totals for the PCs are simply unrealistic.

It would require the winning of seats the Conservatives have never won, or not won since the Bill Davis era.

When I looked at http://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/index.php which has the PCs likely to win 48, (by far the most of any party right now) and 38 'too close to call' there's no way to see PCs at 89.

A clean sweep of every 'too close' seat would get you to 86 but it would require Davenport, University-Rosedale, London North Centre and T-Bay among others to go PC Blue. Nothing is impossible, but that is beyond improbable.

Certainly the PCs are in the lead, by how much is open to debate, but certainly by several points.

I would suggest a nuanced read of the polls, if they didn't change at all, would max the PCs out somewhere around 70, still a majority, but not quite so commanding as 89.

This election requires 63 seats to form a majority, and the PCs are certainly not comfortable yet in securing that. It would still require flipping seats that have not voted PC by plurality in a generation or more.

Everyone breathe deeply. The polls will change (for better or worse, depending on one's perspective); and really the one that counts is election day, the others are so much bird cage liner.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Everyone breathe deeply. The polls will change (for better or worse, depending on one's perspective); and really the one that counts is election day, the others are so much bird cage liner.

Yeah, I'm breathing alright, and will be regardless of the outcome.....as long as it's a minority or coalition government.

I honestly don't trust any poll that doesn't include at least 25% of the poll sample's demographic.

 

[steveintoronto]

Some think this is off-topic, they fail to see how the trajectory is heading straight towards OntCon HQ: (and this is non-partisan, they're all up to their necks in this, just some more than others, and which marketing company they use)

 

[steveintoronto]

@MTown:

Re: Your claim of safety using VPN, be aware of this, testimony by Zuckerberg just a minute ago:

23s ago00:06

Garder is now asking about Facebook’s ability to track the articles people read on non-Facebook sites (such as this one!). Garder asks whether users understand what is happening, and Zuck stumbles toward saying yes, which is a tough claim to make.

Zuck says the social context of having the “Like” button is a clue, but I would guess that most users don’t know exactly how Facebookuses those ubiquitous Like buttons.

Here’s a ProPublica explainer of how that works.

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...ny-live-congress-facebook-cambridge-analytica

Zuckerberg now claims his concern is to (gist) "Safeguard the 2018 elections".

Where to begin...

 

[SunriseChampion]

My VPN software makes me anonymous though and encrypts all my communications. Weird thing I came across today: cbcnews.ca wasn't accessible from Sweden. (Why?)

@steveintoronto, I will love you forever if you "accidentally" link a Channel 4 video that has Jimmy Carr in it.

 

[steveintoronto]

My VPN software makes me anonymous though and encrypts all my communications. Weird thing I came across today: cbcnews.ca wasn't accessible from Sweden. (Why?)

Why do online videos say "content not available"...


The CBC does not hold international internet distribution rights for all of the television programs we broadcast.

We can distribute most of our news and current affairs programs online worldwide, but sporting events or dramas such as Heartland, Coronation Street, and The Rick Mercer Report are geo-fenced or blocked (through your IP address) for those outside Canada.

If you are not in Canada: The "content not available" message means you cannot access this programming through CBC.ca.

If you are in Canada: The "content not available" message appears if your internet service provider is based in or routes through a foreign country. In this instance, the IP address appears foreign and access is blocked by CBC.ca. Please contact your provider for more information. [/quote]
http://www.cbc.ca/contact/announcements/

@steveintoronto, I will love you forever if you "accidentally" link a Channel 4 video that has Jimmy Carr in it.

You can't access BBC video news in Canada for the same reason the converse is true, as explained above.

One of the ways of getting around that is by a 'host' service, like Youtube, but even there, it is often blocked 'by request of the provider'. I'll see what I can find, not familiar with "Jimmy Carr".

Here you go: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=jimmy+carr

Now back to the Ontario elections, and the elephant in the room: How did such an unpopular Ford get elected as leader?

 

[SunriseChampion]

No, I couldn't access the cbc news website, never mind video. It was interesting. I know about geographic exclusions.

I can't believe you don't know Jimmy Carr....check out his stand up.

 

[adma]

One thing about the Ipsos poll worth noting: Doug Ford's leadership approval rating being 37%, only a couple of points behind Horwath. (Wynne's at 24%.) By that evidence, seems like that Ford/Trump pattern of "those who like him, like him a lot" is sinking in, which might dangerous for opposition prospects...