VIA Rail

[micheal_can]

As red faced as I am about not reading these charts this way, I think you can see the reasoning that took my brain there. If the through T-O-M revenue is (hypothetically) more than 50% of all revenue gained in the corridor, then post HFR I would predict that with that traffic removed the subsidy for this route would be reduced by the same proportion. That would drive a reduction in trains more than 30% from today.
Even if VIA sincerely intends to repattern the service along the hub model, it may not be able to retain the funding to do so at this level of service.
If the new service model causes an uptick in revenue, as it may, all may be well.... but I’m not assuming anything.
6 Kingston trains each way, plus the hourly Ottawa HFR’s, is a more intense use of the line east of Coteau than before. I can’t help wondering what CN’s threshold for tolerating passenger in this section might be.
West of Brockville, twelve trains each way is not so much of a reduction to assume less impact from conflict with freight, hub pattern or not. I wonder about both the pure operability and the likelihood of greater cooperation from CN.
I’m encouraged by the prospect of a 12ish train schedule, but some of the good arguments for moving HFR off this line cut both ways.

- Paul

It makes me think that if they could do a new rail line from Kingston to Smith Falls, they could use Kingston as a good hub and 1 train to each Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal would keep the 3 separate and allow then to expand as needed.

 

[ssiguy2]

To most non-VIA rail users, HFR will mean squat unless it comes with significantly higher speeds/shorter trip times. Winning over NEW riders will require VIA to offer a service that is truly enticing and if it doesn't then people will simply view it as more frequent slow boat to China. Unfortunately both those things will require money and political will both of which are lacking.

 

[robmausser]

To most non-VIA rail users, HFR will mean squat unless it comes with significantly higher speeds/shorter trip times.

Important: significantly higher speeds/shorter trip times of the ACTUAL current service, not the posted schedules. As in: reliable trains that get to their destination on time.

Its not hard with even HFR to achieve this. The current via trips along the corridor hardly ever make their destination on time.

Lets not kid ourselves, this isn't 4:30h for HFR and 5h for current Via travel from Toronto to Montreal. Only one train a day actaully advertises that speed, and it rarely if ever makes it on time.

I've had a 6h (posted time) VIA train arrive 2 hours late.

On paper, HFR doesn't look that much better than the existing times, but the existing times only exist on paper.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

The GEXR corridor is a good candidate for HFR.

It was just sold to CN, but they bought it almost out of the fact that they didn't want to lose it. Its really underused for freight and is not a mainline by any stretch of the imagination.

Not only that, but it would make more sense for the HFR route to go through Kitchener.

I could easily see VIA buying the GEXR from CN between Kitchener and London, and putting passenger rail priority over freight on it, or adding another track from Kitchener to London in the corridor. The tracks are in bad shape and would need replacement anyways, and it was at one time double tracked, so theres room. Lots of at-grade crossings though, so for the time being would be 177kmh max.

^^ Its also important to note that this is no different than the portion of HFR from Toronto to Peterborough. That's not an abandoned corridor, its a currently owned and operated CP branch line, just like the GEXR line and CN. They share many similarities, its a lightly used corridor with tracks in poor shape.

In fact, the GEXR line has one advantage over the CP one to Peterborough, and that is that VIA already is operating trains on it, it gives them some clout.

The portion from Union to Kitchener is owned by Metrolinx (except the portion we all know between Bramalea and Georgetown) and would be easy to negotiate schedules with. Passenger rail lines, even if not owned by the rail company requesting their use, are always more accommodating to other passenger rail services. They already have the infrastructure in place, and while you might get stuck behind another train, its not a huge freight going 20kmh, its another passenger train trying to make good time.

Wanted to loop back on this. CN actually just terminated/didn’t renew its long-term lease with GEXR on the Kitchener-London portion, rather than buying it back. There were rumours that they wanted to use it as a double stack bypass, but that never came to fruition. We have seen them run longer thru-trains on the corridor however.

VIA has mused about buying this section of track in a few of its annual plans. The biggest obstacle to running an HFR-type service here would be the congested CN-owned and GO used Georgetown-Bramalea portion as you note. With Ontario stating that they’re exploring extending GO to London, they could make a move for this track also.

The southern London-Toronto route isn’t bad for an HFR candidate either, if dedicated VIA tracks could be built beside CN’s. Other laundry list items would include rebuilding the Brantford bypass for CN’s use, and a difficult but doable 3rd track along the Dundas Peak area.

Longer term, dedicated tracks from Windsor to Toronto would help with on-time operation of Amtrak’s Chicago-Detroit-Toronto service. That’s something that I’d love to see return.

 

[kEiThZ]

Important: significantly higher speeds/shorter trip times of the ACTUAL current service, not the posted schedules. As in: reliable trains that get to their destination on time.

Its not hard with even HFR to achieve this. The current via trips along the corridor hardly ever make their destination on time.

Lets not kid ourselves, this isn't 4:30h for HFR and 5h for current Via travel from Toronto to Montreal. Only one train a day actaully advertises that speed, and it rarely if ever makes it on time.

I've had a 6h (posted time) VIA train arrive 2 hours late.

On paper, HFR doesn't look that much better than the existing times, but the existing times only exist on paper.

The most important point that folks who don't use VIA Corridor services regularly don't seem to understand. They turn off a lot of users with poor performance. Which makes published times sort of useless, because mentally you're always budgeting for a delay.

A 3:15 train from Toronto to Ottawa and 4:45 train from Toronto to Montreal with > 90% on time performance (± 5 mins) will be worth more than the fastest trains on the schedule today, because it will be reliable, faster (compared to today) service for every train. No more mental schedule adjustments.

 

[sacred]

The most important point that folks who don't use VIA Corridor services regularly don't seem to understand. They turn off a lot of users with poor performance. Which makes published times sort of useless, because mentally you're always budgeting for a delay.

A 3:15 train from Toronto to Ottawa and 4:45 train from Toronto to Montreal with > 90% on time performance (± 5 mins) will be worth more than the fastest trains on the schedule today, because it will be reliable, faster (compared to today) service for every train. No more mental schedule adjustments.

Some people are willing to try the corridor service, try it, hit a delay, and are turned off from every taking the train again. Beyond normal on-time-performance improvement, I also hope there can be worst-case delay improvements. An 8 hour delay on a 5 hour journey did not do me much good.

 

[Bordercollie]

Some people are willing to try the corridor service, try it, hit a delay, and are turned off from every taking the train again. Beyond normal on-time-performance improvement, I also hope there can be worst-case delay improvements. An 8 hour delay on a 5 hour journey did not do me much good.

I think that a 95+% on time rate would be pretty good. It's not only about travel times. Driving might be faster but you can't write emails while driving. It's not as efficient.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think that a 95+% on time rate would be pretty good. It's not only about travel times.

One big issue is how on time performance is defined. For example, in Renfe's refund policy, they give a 50% refund after a 15 min delay on their HSR trains and 50% for delays over 30 mins on other regional trains. Some of their trains have 100% refund for delays over 1 hr. VIA gives you a 50% refund after a 1 hr delay. Just imagine what a policy like Renfe's would do to VIA's budget. Post HFR, I'm hoping compensation will be offered for any delay longer than 15 mins.

Driving might be faster but you can't write emails while driving. It's not as efficient.

A proper non-HSR train service should be faster than driving though. Right now, even on schedules, VIA is maybe 15-20% faster than Greyhound or Coach Canada, and not faster door-to-door than driving. Makes the ticket prices hard to swallow.

 

[Bordercollie]

One big issue is how on time performance is defined. For example, in Renfe's refund policy, they give a 50% refund after a 15 min delay on their HSR trains and 50% for delays over 30 mins on other regional trains. Some of their trains have 100% refund for delays over 1 hr. VIA gives you a 50% refund after a 1 hr delay. Just imagine what a policy like Renfe's would do to VIA's budget. Post HFR, I'm hoping compensation will be offered for any delay longer than 15 mins.



A proper non-HSR train service should be faster than driving though. Right now, even on schedules, VIA is maybe 15-20% faster than Greyhound or Coach Canada, and not faster door-to-door than driving. Makes the ticket prices hard to swallow.

You are assuming that driving is faster based on a perfect day. Have you driven from Kitchener to Toronto in rush hour on a regular day? Or from Oshawa to Scarborough? Add one truck roll over and that could easily add an hour to your trip. That doesn't even include the traffic on the DVP which can take an hour on its own with one accident.

If the train can be consistent 95+% of the time at least you know what time you will arrive. Rather than leaving two hours early with the hope of being on time.

 

[kEiThZ]

You are assuming that driving is faster based on a perfect day. Have you driven from Kitchener to Toronto in rush hour on a regular day? Or from Oshawa to Scarborough? Add one truck roll over and that could easily add an hour to your trip. That doesn't even include the traffic on the DVP which can take an hour on its own with one accident.

That's true for the GTA and the surrounding communities. But HFR isn't about getting you from Kitchener to Toronto or from Scarborough to Ottawa.

 

[Bordercollie]

That's true for the GTA and the surrounding communities. But HFR isn't about getting you from Kitchener to Toronto or from Scarborough to Ottawa.

I don't think you get the point.

Let's say both you and the train leave for Ottawa from Toronto union station at 5pm on a Friday. Your goal is to get there faster by car. According to Google maps the fastest time is 4 hours 20 minutes. This is assuming you follow the speed limit and don't get into any traffic jams. During rush hour this trip could take you at least 5 hours, and that is only if the DVP has traffic. Assuming you don't hit anymore traffic or any accidents or a snow storm.

The drive from the DVP to Oshawa can easily take an hour during rush hour. By that time you go up the DVP to Oshawa the train would be in Belleville.

If you follow the speed limit there is no way you can catch the train.

That's why I'm saying that if the train can be on time more often it doesn't need to be able to make that trip in 3 hours.

Traffic is down slightly due to covid but when things get back to normal traffic is going to get worse not better.

If you can count on the train, people will use it even if it's slower or the same. Not everything is about speed.

 

[kEiThZ]

Forget hypotheticals. My regular trip is between Malvern in Scarborough and Vanier in Ottawa. I drive in 4.5 hrs with the wife and kid and one stop in the car. Maybe 5 hrs if there's traffic and my pre-schooler needs another break. Alternatively, I will travel on VIA between Ottawa and Guildwood stations. Fastest train available is 4:15 I believe. But it takes 20 mins to drive to Guildwood from Malvern. And 10 from to station in Ottawa. So the best case scenario for me is usually saving a few minutes. But HFR getting that down to 3 hrs flat would be a notable difference. It would make the trip faster door-to-door.

If you're just looking at downtown-to-downtown and only considering peak hour departures, sure the train wins handily. But this isn't how most people plan a trip. Flexibility matters. With a car, you can leave any time you want. For train service to be convenient, frequencies have to be high enough that you don't waste much time waiting around for the next departure. Most folks will also consider time to access the station and pre-boarding times. Do your downtown-to-downtown hypothetical trip with the above in mind and see how it works out.

Heck, VIA recognizes they have a tough time competing with driving. And HFR is meant at capturing drivers.

 

[lawwt]

This might get a bit off-topic but I think the car vs train timing also hinges a lot on last mile options at departure and arrival destinations and what options are incentivized.

My regular trip is Scarborough to downtown Montreal. By car it takes around 5 hours door to door. The train also takes around 5 hours to get from Guildwood to Gare Centrale. I'm lucky enough to be walking distance to Guildwood station and my end point in Montreal tends to be hell for parking. The relatively easy transfer point at Gare Centrale makes it more convenient and stress free for me to take the train than drive even though it'll take more time. Cities are going to have to work with HFR to further incentivize drivers to switch to the train by changing the calculus on what last mile option works best.

 

[micheal_can]

This might get a bit off-topic but I think the car vs train timing also hinges a lot on last mile options at departure and arrival destinations and what options are incentivized.

My regular trip is Scarborough to downtown Montreal. By car it takes around 5 hours door to door. The train also takes around 5 hours to get from Guildwood to Gare Centrale. I'm lucky enough to be walking distance to Guildwood station and my end point in Montreal tends to be hell for parking. The relatively easy transfer point at Gare Centrale makes it more convenient and stress free for me to take the train than drive even though it'll take more time. Cities are going to have to work with HFR to further incentivize drivers to switch to the train by changing the calculus on what last mile option works best.

No one thinks of the last mile. They look at their ticket, see the time and think that is how long it will take. They don't think of getting there, or getting to their final destination. Even driving. For example, We think of the drive in hours, not in hours and minutes. We say it takes 5 hours to get from Toronto to Montreal. But, how far does it take from an exact address in Toronto to an exact address in Montreal?

 

[robmausser]

No one thinks of the last mile. They look at their ticket, see the time and think that is how long it will take. They don't think of getting there, or getting to their final destination. Even driving. For example, We think of the drive in hours, not in hours and minutes. We say it takes 5 hours to get from Toronto to Montreal. But, how far does it take from an exact address in Toronto to an exact address in Montreal?

Totally, not even last mile, but with driving, the stopping for gas, food, bathrooms etc. Google Maps says "5:09" from Toronto to Montreal, but i've never been able to ever make that time. Don't even talk to me about when its the long weekend... 8h+

And then people look at their flight ticket and go "Oh only 1:30h to Montreal, WOW!" and neglect how it took them 3h to get to and from the airports, baggage, security, etc.

its like my friend who coudlnt figure out why he was always 15% over his financial spending budgets.... he never included sales tax!

People are willfully ignorant with things like this.

When HFR is built VIA should do an ad campaign with a split screen and someone taking the train, and the other screen taking a plane/car and all the headache that endures; getting through security, getting to the airport, traffic on the road, getting stuck in bad weather, stopping to eat, etc and the person on the train just chilling.