U.S. Elections 2008

[rpgr]

That would suggest that Obama is appealing to new age Democrats more so than ones in rural ridings and traditionally Red states. If Obama maintains control of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Pacific plus garners a sizable number of supporters from the 18-35 demographic nation-wide, he should have no problem not only convincing superdelegates he is the man for the job but could easy well defeat aging dinosaur McCain.

Hiliary has a lock on white women and Latino caucases. Perhaps more stage presence from Oprah, Richardson and his wife could persuade some delegates to reconsider who they'll be backing.



I'm dissappointed to hear that so many have written off Obama becuase he's a good pugilist. All politicians have to sound empassioned and dedicated about the causes they support. Why is only him being targeted for 'all dreams, no substance'? Hilary might have more experience but so what, all presidents have an extensive team of behind-the-scenes advisors ensuring the nation won't run amok.

What better way to prove the system works, than charter away from the establishment, tradional conventions of who can run the nation. Show that centuries of inequality were worth it, to see a son of the unsung, rise through the ranks to govern Americans of all stripes. A son of the world running the world's great superpower.

You do realize the irony of the above paragraph if looked at from a feminists point of view, do you? (not that I'm a feminist, just pointing out how one perceives things as "revolutionary" can differ greatly just by shifting a viewpoint).

 

[DENTROBATE54]

I personally wouldn't mind seeing this future America:

 

[doady]

I don't want any protectionist to be a leader of any country, esepcially if that country is Canada's biggest trading partner...

 

[Jayomatic]

^ works for me!

 

[ShonTron]

Could we swap Alberta and Ohio, though?

 

[DENTROBATE54]

Yeah they can have AB and OH, and in exchange Canada claims Nevada and Florida (who wouldn't want all the touristic cash-cow states !) That'd leave Florida as our cut-off counterpart to the US's Alaska.

 

[Long Island Mike]

The US Blue States aligned with Canada...

Dentrobate: I could live with the US Blue States aligned with most of Canada-we have more in common then with the conservative Red States anyway!
LI MIKE

 

[cacruden]

Here is where the race stands. March 4th - Hillary won "BIG" - she gained maybe 12 delegates to close the race to maybe a gap of 100.

Delegate gain of 12 does not do very much, and leaves Obama in a commanding lead - but stops his momentum and damages him a little before the election.

Now - what is left.

Wyoming (C) - March 8 - 12 Delegates
Mississippi (P) - March 11 - 33 Delegates
Pennsylvania (P) - April 22 - 158 Delegates
Guam (C) - May 3 - 4 Delegates
Indiana (P) - May 6 - 72 Delegates
North Carolina (P) - May 6 - 115 Delegates
West Virginia (P) - May 13 - 28 Delgtates
Kentucky (P) - May 20 - 51 Delegates
Oregon (P) - May 20 - 52 Delegates
Montana (P) - June 3 - 16 Delegates
South Dakota (P) - June 3 - 55 Delegates

That is a total of 611. Problem for Hillary. North Carolina and Mississippi are strong Obama states - so even if she does extremely well - she is unlikely to gain any ground on those. There are two caucus states - Obama has won most of the caucus states. Oregon is likely to be a wash at best for Hillary. Pennsylvania should be Hillary's but last polling has them close - I expect she can gain a little there.

Still - if she only gains a few delegates on the states she is strong on -- she is quickly running out of room. She gained 12 out of 370 March 4, there is only 611 left.... this is extremely bad news.

Now, what is going to happen. Hillary will continue to hammer Obama - dragging him down. Obama will go negative now - "where did the money from", "release your tax forms", "and a rehash of old scandles". Things are not looking promising now for the Democrats.

Of course Florida and Michigan may be rerun (Florida more likely than Michigan since the Rep. Governor has offered to pick up the additional cost -- but I still fail to see how Hillary can close the gap without using the nuclear option which destroys the Democratic Party.

On we are to Pennsylvania, and the number of elected delegates (lead) is back to the same point as BEFORE March 4th. Actually, Obama may actually have gained a net of 2 delegates since that point. CNN is reporting that according to their analysis - Obama one 99 to Hillaries 94 (based on updated but not finalized caucus results). Now she is relying on Pennsylvania to "win BIG" (really BIG) - which if she fails to do so .... will be one more nail in the coffin. On the bright side, I think Obama has been weakened by Hillary and gives McCain a chance to win.

 

[Roy G Biv]

On the bright side, I think Obama has been weakened by Hillary and gives McCain a chance to win.

If he's "weakened" any futher, I really think the DNC needs to think about kicking her out of the party. She crossed the line when she endorsed McCain over Obama.

 

[JasonParis]

She did? (endorse McCain over Obama)

 

[Roy G Biv]

She did? (endorse McCain over Obama)

Yes.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou4JnWQsxKw

The media is finally running with it. CNN was talking a lot about it last night, in combination with Ferraro's comments. Apparently it pissed off a lot of superdelegates.

 

[afransen]

If Obama had been smart, he'd have offered to Hillary to be his running mate. Hillary will be all but forced to offer it to Obama if she wins; that he would not necessarily have to reciprocate is probably dragging out this campaign.

 

[afransen]

Dentrobate: I could live with the US Blue States aligned with most of Canada-we have more in common then with the conservative Red States anyway!
LI MIKE

That's be a tail wagging the dog scenario. The blue states have, what... 120+ million to Canada's 30 million. I can't see Canada agreeing to that arrangement.

 

[DENTROBATE54]

If Obama had been smart, he'd have offered to Hillary to be his running mate. Hillary will be all but forced to offer it to Obama if she wins; that he would not necessarily have to reciprocate is probably dragging out this campaign.

How do you know who offered who what and which candidate would subordinate to the other? It's the Clintons' ego and narcisssism that won't allow a former first lady to play second-tier to Obama, IMO. Furthermore, why would the Democrats risk losing the election by putting double minority candidates on the bill?

I'd like to see rapid, sweeping reforms to our political processes but unfortunately it's usually the aging, conservative-minded set that forms the bulk of voter-turnouts come election day, not young idealists.

 

[St. Even]

If Obama had been smart, he'd have offered to Hillary to be his running mate. Hillary will be all but forced to offer it to Obama if she wins; that he would not necessarily have to reciprocate is probably dragging out this campaign.

I'm not sure that would have been a good idea. If they both market themselves as a package with the other as VP, that plays to Clinton's advantage when the numbers are this close and it will likely be determined by the superdelegates. There's a lot of "old establishment" party among those superdelegates and they are much better connected to her than to "Newbie" Obama. She does have the CV and the Rolodex that would be more palatable, generally, to this group. And there's Bill.....he still has a lot of respect with this crowd and he can be awfully persuasive. Great strategy on her part to put it out there.