U.S. Elections 2008

[Brandon716]

If the election held in Florida and Michigan counted, Hillary is ahead in both delegates pledged and actual votes. Of course due to DNC rules, they don't count, so she's just behind Obama in pledged delegates and has more superdelegates.

I was surprised she won Texas, expected her to win Rhode Island, and was glad to see such a significant victory in Ohio. Ohio and Texas are two very large states and two very big wins for Hillary.

I think her win in Ohio signals she's the best candidate for the fall when it comes to battleground states.

 

[Long Island Mike]

US Presidential Election 2008-Update 3/5/2008

Everyone: With Hillary Clinton winning primaries in Ohio and Texas the horserace goes on for the Democrats while John McCain clinches the Republican nomination with four wins yesterday. I wonder who will his running mate be-hopefully not a hard-right conservative to appease the Religious Right. The Democrats hopefully will unite-the campaign has divided some-and counter well the Republican spin machine-waiting to go into attack mode.

The USA needs change-and Ralph Nader entering the race is not good news for the Democrats! Hopefully they all learned from the 2000 Gore-Bush debacle. LI MIKE

 

[ganjavih]

There is no clear answer as to exactly how many Iraqi civilians have been killed since the invasion and occupation of Iraq but almost every estimate indicates that it's 100K or higher.

 

[Observer Walt]

Well give her full credit, she's tough and has managed to bounce back with two significant wins after a losing streak. But as I understand it, Texas has a mix of primary and caucuses, and the results from the caucuses may offset the primary to a great extent. And Obama still has a lead in the overall absolute number of delegates.

Dentrobate has a point, in that people will want to get Obama vs Clinton settled and be able to move on to McCain vs whoever. But it's looking more like that may not happen until the convention. It's interesting stuff; we are positively dull in Canada by comparison.

 

[JasonParis]

And the saga continues ! Seriously when will it end already so we can start the Democrats vs. Republicans part of the campaign...

But why? It's a spirited and constructive race between two credible candidates that seems to be gripping the nation (and others) in discussion. So long as it remains somwhat friendly, I see it being a plus for the Dems.

 

[cacruden]

Everyone: With Hillary Clinton winning primaries in Ohio and Texas the horserace goes on for the Democrats while John McCain clinches the Republican nomination with four wins yesterday. I wonder who will his running mate be-hopefully not a hard-right conservative to appease the Religious Right. The Democrats hopefully will unite-the campaign has divided some-and counter well the Republican spin machine-waiting to go into attack mode.

The USA needs change-and Ralph Nader entering the race is not good news for the Democrats! Hopefully they all learned from the 2000 Gore-Bush debacle. LI MIKE

Here is where the race stands. March 4th - Hillary won "BIG" - she gained maybe 12 delegates to close the race to maybe a gap of 100.

Delegate gain of 12 does not do very much, and leaves Obama in a commanding lead - but stops his momentum and damages him a little before the election.

Now - what is left.

Wyoming (C) - March 8 - 12 Delegates
Mississippi (P) - March 11 - 33 Delegates
Pennsylvania (P) - April 22 - 158 Delegates
Guam (C) - May 3 - 4 Delegates
Indiana (P) - May 6 - 72 Delegates
North Carolina (P) - May 6 - 115 Delegates
West Virginia (P) - May 13 - 28 Delgtates
Kentucky (P) - May 20 - 51 Delegates
Oregon (P) - May 20 - 52 Delegates
Montana (P) - June 3 - 16 Delegates
South Dakota (P) - June 3 - 55 Delegates

That is a total of 611. Problem for Hillary. North Carolina and Mississippi are strong Obama states - so even if she does extremely well - she is unlikely to gain any ground on those. There are two caucus states - Obama has won most of the caucus states. Oregon is likely to be a wash at best for Hillary. Pennsylvania should be Hillary's but last polling has them close - I expect she can gain a little there.

Still - if she only gains a few delegates on the states she is strong on -- she is quickly running out of room. She gained 12 out of 370 March 4, there is only 611 left.... this is extremely bad news.

Now, what is going to happen. Hillary will continue to hammer Obama - dragging him down. Obama will go negative now - "where did the money from", "release your tax forms", "and a rehash of old scandles". Things are not looking promising now for the Democrats.

Of course Florida and Michigan may be rerun (Florida more likely than Michigan since the Rep. Governor has offered to pick up the additional cost -- but I still fail to see how Hillary can close the gap without using the nuclear option which destroys the Democratic Party.

 

[cacruden]

This gives a good numbers rundown - using an extremely Hillary friendly scenario....

Hillary's Math Problem

 

[St. Even]

And the saga continues ! Seriously when will it end already so we can start the Democrats vs. Republicans part of the campaign...

We've just come past the 7th inning stretch, still more game to play, and lots more voting to be done.

I think it's actually good for the Democrats to have this go a bit longer. People are turning out in droves, the party is re-energized, and polls show most people supporting one candidate would be more than satisfied with the other. In the meantime, nobody's paying attention to John McCain.

This is dry-run mobilization for the election in the fall -- the more people participating now, the more likely they'll turn out to vote in November.

Let's not forget the other Clinton didn't secure his nomination until June and he led a unified party all the way to the White House.

 

[Brandon716]

But why? It's a spirited and constructive race between two credible candidates that seems to be gripping the nation (and others) in discussion. So long as it remains somwhat friendly, I see it being a plus for the Dems.

There are two possible scenarios.

1) The coverage of the Democratic race overshadows anything the Republicans do or say, and McCain's lack of media coverage means he's not able to define himself or advertise himself. This is a net positive for the Democrats no matter who is the nominee.

2) Democrats start dividing and conquering and they take it to a level that is totally unnecessary. Its not at this level yet, and I don't honestly see it getting to this level. Personally, even as a Hillary supporter, I like Obama. I think both are better options than a hideous possibility for McCain becoming President. But if the campaign gets divisive, people start Hillary hating or Obama hating for no reason, we might have a problem come fall.

But I do think any possible damage in the convention would be overcome by several months of cooldown time. If the eventual nominee just campaigns well and becomes a unifying force, I believe we'll do fine this fall even with a hard fought convention.

In my opinion most people don't understand convention and DNC rules enough to respect them. The United States nomination process is so chaotic. Some states do caucuses where its basically groups of people meeting in local precincts who hold hands up to send state delegates to state conventions to elect national delegates to represent them. Other states have primaries where people actually vote. And then at the actual convention in both parties there are things called Superdelegates that have an independent vote regardless who wins the primaries and caucuses, and they can override voters and elect a different nominee. There is no guarantee, and that's just the rules.

People don't seem to understand this isn't a direct 1 man/woman 1 vote nomination system and if they start an uproar because people voted one way but electors vote another, oh well. That's my biggest fear.

The rules state Hillary's win in Florida and her single win in Michigan with other names not on the ballot don't matter, but if those votes and delegates did matter she'd be the clear delegate and vote leader right now.

Superdelegates have the right to take this into account into the convention. These superdelegates also have the independent right to consider Obama the better candidate and vote for him, and many are switching their vote to him right now.

 

[unimaginative2]

If I were McCain, I'd pick Sarah Palin as my running mate.

 

[afransen]

Any possibility of re-running the Michigan and Florida primaries? Given that the race is so close, it seems strange to ignore the voices of two major states.

 

[unimaginative2]

Apparently the Florida governor is offering to re-run the primary.

 

[Brandon716]

This gives a good numbers rundown - using an extremely Hillary friendly scenario....

Hillary's Math Problem

There's a dynamic here that isn't being discussed. If Florida and Michigan's votes and delegates were factored in, Hillary would be ahead in this race due to the sheer size of those states and the delegate count. She'd also have the most votes nationally.

Due to rules of course they don't count.

Not a single major media press story has discussed this Florida/Michigan debacle accurately.

What we probably need are for Obama and Hillary to be on the same ticket. Hillary supporters are going to be demoralized when they are asked to just roll over and let Obama win because he's Obama, and a recent Pew research poll indicates upwards of 25% of Hillary supporters are considering going to McCain (which I hope doesn't happen) should Hillary lose the nomination. Likewise, black Americans have indicated they will stay home in large numbers and not vote at all if Hillary gets the nomination, and as trends suggest over 90% of African Americans vote Democrat. This is a strong constituency that cannot be lost.

You can throw my support behind the unified Hillary/Obama or Obama/Hillary movement, it is likely to resolve the problem of feeling disenfranchised.

If McCain wins this fall, I will have lost total confidence in the American political system. I kept telling myself this vote would be resolved in Super Tuesday, and I told myself many things in the past, and right now I just need to face up to the fact that the party is likely to divide and conquer itself. This is America and the left can never get a breathing chance anymore, whether its because of itself or the general population.

 

[cacruden]

Yes, if Florida's election and Michigan's election were added in Obama would be ahead by a few thousand votes (pop. vote), and may have drawn equal in delegates. Unfortunately for Clinton, Russian style elections where only one candidate is on the ballot is not acceptable. Now, it is going to likely cost 25 million to rerun - and that money may have to come from the DNC (which means 25 million less for the election )

 

[DENTROBATE54]

If McCain wins this fall, I will have lost total confidence in the American political system. I kept telling myself this vote would be resolved in Super Tuesday, and I told myself many things in the past, and right now I just need to face up to the fact that the party is likely to divide and conquer itself. This is America and the left can never get a breathing chance anymore, whether its because of itself or the general population.

So you don't become a victim of your fears,
make sure don't rely or depend on anyone.
Remember life is short so make haste and take care,
cause tomorrow brings, tomorrow assures nothing.

Just thought I'd put that conventional wisdom out there !

Putting faith in a volatile political system where no one's the ideal candidate for all people of all perspectives, is the surest route to embargo of corporate/"Old Money" interests/ideologies while citizens at the individual level suffer.

Now, it is going to likely cost 25 million to rerun - and that money may have to come from the DNC (which means 25 million less for the election )

That's what you get for putting personal ambition, pride and ego ahead of the will of the people you aspire to govern. When the 44th turns out to be a red, through the division of blue party loyalties, I anticipate all wagging fingers will point back to the 42nd. Instead of allowing Republicans to build up momentum in the void absence of attack ads (not that those would be hard to set up given the Bush Administration's dilapadated record), Democrats are divided. I swear if America were more like Canada they'd actually endorse petty misinformations from the liberals camp call an election just to see the oppisition thought a lesson in prioritizing the right priorities. Take Canada's heed Americans!