Anyone have any insight on the transit situation in really dense Asian cities like Tokyo and Hong Kong? What’s the risk of transmission on their systems?
I have a feeling mask wearing plays a huge part. While I say mask compliance has been pretty good in my experience on the TTC (in Scarborough), I think it’s time they start enforcing it. Physical distancing on public transit was never truly possible—even during the height of the pandemic.
Important to note here how various factors associated with transmission overlap.
1) Social Distancing is helpful but the rules aren't absolute; they are on a continuum..........because
2) Duration of exposure matters
3) Risk of exposure (statistical liklihood of someone being contagious in your proximity)
4) Talking/singing/shouting matters. Mask or no. The more and louder you vocalize the greater the risk of transmission. Wearing a mask reduces the risk, to near zero if you're sitting quietly and shallow breathing. If your yelling at someone on your phone, the mask is considerably less effective.
Put another way.
If one is 1M from another passenger who is masked, not talking, and you're off that vehicle in under 15M you're statistically very safe.
If you're 2M from another passenger who is unmasked for the same time, much less so, and for more than 15M less again.
More distance, less risk,
masks, less risk,
shorter duration, less risk,
more ventilation, less risk,
everybody hush, less risk.
The art here is to minimize risk as much as is practical; while allowing society to function as much as possible.
No one is suggesting, I don't think, that the TTC will run enough service, if everyone is back at work, to socially distance. That literally can't be done.
But it can be done for now.
So why not?
Sure, there's a cost.
But in so far as that reduces transmission rates, which in turn may allow the economy to reopen further, it would likely pay off in spades.
Then, while we're doing that, we need to properly encourage good behaviors, discourage bad ones, and look at issues like having some WFH, and some flex time, and some remote schooling (one day at home per week (different day for each school) that reduces peak-transit load and maintains an improved outcome even as crowding does creep up a bit.