Transit City Plan

[Eug]

If he cancels a chunk of this and that results in a lot of wasted cash, the public will crucify him... unless he can reduce other spending to a level that will overcompensate. That would be a tall order though, with his promise already to freeze taxes.

 

[jeffreym]

does anybody remember if smitherman's transit plan required any new funding from the province?

100M I think?

 

[GraphicMatt]

Smitherman was asking for an extra 100M per year from the province in the form of an operating subsidy. I don't think his plan asked for any additional capital funding beyond an investment to extend the Sheppard LRT to the Scarborough campus of UofT.

 

[Ed Drass]

inside the bubble

Ford may be open to just keeping the Eglinton Crosstown LRT as is or just the tunnelled portion. And we use some of the new LRVs on it.

If Eglinton still fits into Dalton's stated maximum funding envelope for current projects... (and BTW Ford does not appear open to any aboveground -- that seems clear).

But Sheppard subway sucks up all of this $3.1b figure, if the Globe has TTC's estimate of $3.6b correctly.

And SRT conversion is #2 on Ford's list, no? What's the cost of tunnelling to STC, whether or not TTC considers his platform's cockamamie idea of following the SRT route? Maybe the BD extension gets pushed to next council term while Sheppard hooks up with the fading SRT for a few years.

So, in what scenario does Eglinton get funded and built before the LRVs are scheduled to arrive?

-Ed

 

[Dan416]

I'm pretty sure Smitherman had extending Danforth to STC and Bloor to Sherway on his plan. That alone is more than an addditional $100 million..., even if it's continuous for several years.

 

[drum118]

Okay it's not that difficult to decipher. Sheppard is clearly not going to be an underground LRT. That's just, um, STUPID. You extend the darned thing to STC and add a couple trainsets to it and voila, you're done.

Ford may be open to just keeping the Eglinton Crosstown LRT as is or just the tunnelled portion. And we use some of the new LRVs on it. The ones that were earmarked for SELRT and S(L)RT can go to Hamilton and Mississauga/Brampton.

How many vehicles doe Eglinton need?
How many vehicles does Hurontario/Main need?
How many vehicles does Hamilton need?
How many vehicles were earmarked for Sheppard?
How many vehciles were earmarked for converting the SRT?

Either way, the TTC has been asked to make it work, and so has McGuinty. Let's see what they can come up with by January.

Why does you world revolved around STC when it is clearly shown ridership on 192 doesn't justify an LRT line there now?

Why do you force riders going east of Kennedy Rd having to travel to STC to get to Melvern when it a lot faster going straight across Sheppard?

How do you develop an Avenue when things are underground in the first place considering Danforth has never really recover from the lost of Streetcars after the subway open?

Why ask the question surrounding the number of vehicles since you should have done your homework by now for it? I known the answers to your questions other than Hamilton since I haven't follow it that close.

Mextrolinx owns everything surrounding Sheppard and therefore Metrolinx can continue to build it over the objects of Ford as well run it in place of TTC. The Government can give power to Metrolinx to operate within Toronto regardless of the City ACT preventing other system from doing so that is on the books.

I am sure when it comes time to vote on Ford plan at Council it will be defeated. I know a few Scarborough councillors who will support the Sheppard LRT since they only wanted the BD line in the first place.

Maybe it is time to go back to the yearly or when need referendums asking the residents if they really want things when the price tag is show as how much their tax bill will go up by voting yes for it. That is why the subway plan of 1912 die.

TTC is going to come back with a plan that will say how much this plan will cost as well how long it will take. At this point, Ford is going to try to fit it into the 1.8% tax increase and at the end of the day, he will not be able to do it. The government is on record saying you have approved funding for this amount and if your plan is going to cost more than that, sorry don't have the money.

If you think the PC let alone NDP is going to help if they are elected in 2011, not going to happen.

So unless you can convince the residents of eating a higher tax rate of 1.8%, not many km of subway is going to get built over the next 10 years or so. Sheppard will not be the first one.

The problem today as it was in 1900 is traffic and unless you start to deal with it now, you will have to pave over the city for those single car drivers. There is 20% of those drivers out there you will never get out of cars regardless what you do from higher road tolls to high fuel cost as they can pay for it knowing it will free up space on the roads by drivers who cannot. There is a section of the population that look at buses been 3rd class and for the poor people to used and will never get on one.

Here we are a city that was known for good public transit special for streetcars are now going to step back into history where cities lost 50% or more of their ridership going to buses who are now moving back to LRTs to revive their city as well deal with traffic.

My world does not revolved around shopping mall considering I am only 10 minute ride from one in the first place.

The world does not revolved around the downtown like it used to, but right across the city to the point we are seeing more urban living than business. Therefore people will walk to where they are going.

It is know as a fact from TTC themself, Sheppard Subway is a money pit.

 

[lafard]

If he cancels a chunk of this and that results in a lot of wasted cash, the public will crucify him... unless he can reduce other spending to a level that will overcompensate. That would be a tall order though, with his promise already to freeze taxes.

Oh, it will result in wasted cash. You don't think McGuinty will subsidise Buffoon's wishy-washiness, do you?

If he fails to cancel this then he is basically a lame duck failure of a mayor right from the start. I suspect this is what will ultimately happen, there seems to be a rising tide of grassroots activism that may well push enough councillors to shoot him down. The realitythat shovels are essentially in the ground means most people realize the dangers of cancelling projects we need today. These councillors may well include Nunziata if she feels that the rest of council will protect her from Ford's wrath, particularly if Eglinton is on the choppign block as most of us suspect.

It's lose lose for Rob. McGuinty has him by the balls. The fall of Ford will be a huge feather in the cap of the Ontario liberals headign into the election; don't think McGuinty doesn't know this. If Ford falls he's taking Hudak with him.

 

[GraphicMatt]

The thing that I think gets lost in these discussions is that Transit City really is an attempt to keep the TTC's operating costs from rising too much while still providing high-capacity rapid transit. Any new suburban subways essentially work out to million dollar holes in an operating budget that is already difficult to sustain.

 

[Eug]

If he fails to cancel this then he is basically a lame duck failure of a mayor right from the start

Hmmm... I don't get that impression at all. Maybe it's just me, but I'm not convinced.

I think voters are pre-occupied with the car tax, property taxes, real estate taxes, and overspending.

ie. If he overspends needlessly on the transit changes, then people will sit up and take notice. If he comes back and says "I'm not overly enthused with Transit City's plan, but it would be an even bigger waste of money to stop everything" people won't care as much, esp. if he comes back and freezes and/or removes taxes, while maintaining the visible city services without going hugely into debt. That would be spun as a turnaround in the city's finances by Ford's friends, and I'm inclined to think the population of Toronto would buy into it, even if he fails to accomplish anything with his transit "plan".

The thing that I think gets lost in these discussions is that Transit City really is an attempt to keep the TTC's operating costs from rising too much while still providing high-capacity rapid transit. Any new suburban subways essentially work out to million dollar holes in an operating budget that is already difficult to sustain.

Well, that's ultimately irrelevant from the voter standpoint. The impression I get is that if costs don't skyrocket from Transit City's estimates, but subways are built, that could realistically be spun into a win, even if it's just a very limited amount.

In fact, if only a limited amount of new subway were built, that would also limit the ongoing operating costs, and of course his group would spin that as reigning in operating budget increases, while at the same time starting to lay a foundation for future transit expansion.

Personally I'd like to see the Eglinton underground get built though, sooner rather than later. Quite honestly I never understood the point of the Scarborough RT either, but then again I only moved to Toronto after it was built.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

100M I think?

Smitherman was asking for an extra 100M per year from the province in the form of an operating subsidy. I don't think his plan asked for any additional capital funding beyond an investment to extend the Sheppard LRT to the Scarborough campus of UofT.

then i don't think ford can expect to get much more than that from the province. what smitherman asked for is what the province could realistically provide and all that is available. i'm sure mcguinty and smitherman had a chat before smitherman announced his plan. also, if everything goes to shit, i hope people are smart enough to figure out that it was ford's doing and not the province.

 

[jeffreym]

Steve Munro points to a Globe & Mail poll that puts councillor support as follows:

Pro Transit City: 14
Transit City + Tweaks: 4
Subways: 11
Unknown: 15

Any ideas on what the remaining councillors are likely to support based on their campaigns?

Obviously Doug Ford is a 'Subways' vote and I know my councillor, Fillion, is a Pro Transit City councillor (I emailed him a week or so back).

 

[Justin10000]

Why does you world revolved around STC when it is clearly shown ridership on 192 doesn't justify an LRT line there now?

Why do you force riders going east of Kennedy Rd having to travel to STC to get to Melvern when it a lot faster going straight across Sheppard?

How do you develop an Avenue when things are underground in the first place considering Danforth has never really recover from the lost of Streetcars after the subway open?

Why ask the question surrounding the number of vehicles since you should have done your homework by now for it? I known the answers to your questions other than Hamilton since I haven't follow it that close.

Mextrolinx owns everything surrounding Sheppard and therefore Metrolinx can continue to build it over the objects of Ford as well run it in place of TTC. The Government can give power to Metrolinx to operate within Toronto regardless of the City ACT preventing other system from doing so that is on the books.

I am sure when it comes time to vote on Ford plan at Council it will be defeated. I know a few Scarborough councillors who will support the Sheppard LRT since they only wanted the BD line in the first place.

Maybe it is time to go back to the yearly or when need referendums asking the residents if they really want things when the price tag is show as how much their tax bill will go up by voting yes for it. That is why the subway plan of 1912 die.

TTC is going to come back with a plan that will say how much this plan will cost as well how long it will take. At this point, Ford is going to try to fit it into the 1.8% tax increase and at the end of the day, he will not be able to do it. The government is on record saying you have approved funding for this amount and if your plan is going to cost more than that, sorry don't have the money.

If you think the PC let alone NDP is going to help if they are elected in 2011, not going to happen.

So unless you can convince the residents of eating a higher tax rate of 1.8%, not many km of subway is going to get built over the next 10 years or so. Sheppard will not be the first one.

The problem today as it was in 1900 is traffic and unless you start to deal with it now, you will have to pave over the city for those single car drivers. There is 20% of those drivers out there you will never get out of cars regardless what you do from higher road tolls to high fuel cost as they can pay for it knowing it will free up space on the roads by drivers who cannot. There is a section of the population that look at buses been 3rd class and for the poor people to used and will never get on one.

Here we are a city that was known for good public transit special for streetcars are now going to step back into history where cities lost 50% or more of their ridership going to buses who are now moving back to LRTs to revive their city as well deal with traffic.

My world does not revolved around shopping mall considering I am only 10 minute ride from one in the first place.

The world does not revolved around the downtown like it used to, but right across the city to the point we are seeing more urban living than business. Therefore people will walk to where they are going.

It is know as a fact from TTC themself, Sheppard Subway is a money pit.

"clap" "clap"

 

[SimonP]

Steve Munro points to a Globe & Mail poll that puts councillor support as follows:

Pro Transit City: 14
Transit City + Tweaks: 4
Subways: 11
Unknown: 15

Any ideas on what the remaining councillors are likely to support based on their campaigns?

We need 23 councillors to vote in favour of saving the Eglinton Line. If they vote for Eglinton, it will also save the SELRT, as Ford won't be able to divert money to transform Sheppard into a subway.

The Globe page lists 14 definites and 2 of the maybes explicitly say they support the Eglinton LRT (Di Giorgio and Colle). Fillion, McConnell, and Peruzza are not listed and are all pro-Transit City. That's 19 votes.

What it will come down to are the right wingers, (Stintz, Nunziata, Parker, Thompson) who represent wards along Eglinton and would have to pay a political price if they vote against a line in their own ward. But Ford would be crazy to have launched this effort if he didn't have his own executive on board. (Then again, Ford and logic have never been great friends.)

 

[SimonP]

Adam Giambrone has been active on these subjects on Facebook. His messages over the last 24 hours:

Having an updated Environmental assessment and construction for a Sheppard Subway done by Pan Am in impossible, even with an excellerated schedule which would also add upwards of 15% or $50M per km ($400M for the line). Note that the Spadina Subway will not be ready for Pan Am and it was funded in 2006 AFTER 2-3 years of planning/study & EA

TTC advised the Mayor we would be one of the few cities in the world abandoning LRT.

TTC staff agree to provide information to new Mayor as is their duty, but direction on Transit City comes from the Commission only which meets again next in mid December.

 

[Eug]

I wonder what the SUBWAYSORNOTHING crowd are thinking about all of this: Limited subway extensions feasible because of budget constraints, but a mayor that's very supportive of the idea of subway.

I hesitantly supported the Transit City LRT plan, just because it was SOMETHING that actually had funding and might actually get built. I keep wondering how this could be structured so that every four years the plan doesn't have to re-jigged, whether it'd be subway or LRT or some sort of fusion between the two.

BTW, Adam Giambrone would know, but somehow it's just a little bit harder to take him seriously these days.