Transit City Plan

[Rainforest]

I also agree his analogy was poor. Definitely does not justify subway over LRT in tunnel. The difference in speed between the tunnelled section and the East section is around 7km. The increase in travel time will be minimal and will not require any extra LRVs. Regardless, whatever headway the TTC chooses will be maintained. I do not know how you came to that assumption, that more LRV will be needed because of a slightly longer travel time on the surface.

It is a mathematical fact that faster service requires fewer vehicles for the same headways.

Let's say you have a 20-km subway line from Kennedy to Jane and it runs at 32 kph. The round trip time is (2 x 20 / 32) x 60 = 75 min. For 3-min headways, you need 25 trains (27 if you have a spare at each terminus).

Compare to an LRT line that runs at the same 32 kph in the tunnel (10 km) and at 24 kph in the median (another 10 km). The round trip time is ((2 x 10 / 32) + (2 x 10) / 24)) x 60 = 87.5 min. For 3-min headways, you need 29 trains (31 if you have a spare at each terminus).

LRT is being built because you do NOT need the capacity of a Subway. The new TR trains must be purchased as one train, so that is automatically $18.9Million dollars. a 3 car LRV train will be half that cost, and will be more versatile. You can break up the train if necessary to save costs. Cannot do that with the new TR's.

The new TR trains are meant for Yonge / Spadina. Bloor and Sheppard will still operate with old cars for a while. You can buy a few more TRs for Bloor and move some older cars to Eglinton, and run them in 4-car consists (effectively 12.6 million per train).

Even if brand-new trains had to be purchased for Eglinton, I'm sure that shorter than 6-car consists could be bought.

On the other hand, look at the the recent 1.2 billion purchase of the 204 replacement streetcars for the legacy network: almost 6 million per car. The Transit City cars might cost somewhat less (standard gauge and no need to handle tight curves; on the other hand, they will need cabins at both ends), but even at 5 million apiece, it would be 15 million for a 3-car train.

People with much more experience modeled the Eglinton LRT will peak at 5,400pph in 2031. The LRT is capable of much higher capacity.

How can you explain that 5,400 max projection for Eglinton, when Bloor has already reached 24,000? The two lines having similar length, and the two corridors having similar density ...

 

[nfitz]

The two lines having similar length, and the two corridors having similar density ...

Perhaps because the two corridors don't have the same density? And also because the primary travel demand for anyone along Eglinton is north-south not east-west, as opposed to Bloor/Danforth.

Surely the proof is the pre-subway demand on Bloor and Danforth - which was much higher in the 1950s, than the current demand is on Eglinton ... and that's before you start considering parallel routes such as the Harbord car.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

People with much more experience modeled the Eglinton LRT will peak at 5,400pph in 2031. The LRT is capable of much higher capacity .I am not pulling the "we should build for te future" excuse as a way to justify a subway.

What happened to the experts that modeled that the Eglinton Corridor did justify a subway. Their numbers were made up but these numbers are not???

 

[scarberiankhatru]

It's that simple, eh?

Why don't apply for a top TTC management job? or better yet run for council so that you can become TTC chair!

Yes, it's that simple. Duh. Anyone with even the slightest hint of knowledge of transit or planning would say the same thing (which is why it needs to be said here).

I know your mind is twisting the words into "a future with these conditions can be created instantaneously," but note what I actually posted.

 

[Second_in_pie]

Perhaps because the two corridors don't have the same density? And also because the primary travel demand for anyone along Eglinton is north-south not east-west, as opposed to Bloor/Danforth.

Surely the proof is the pre-subway demand on Bloor and Danforth - which was much higher in the 1950s, than the current demand is on Eglinton ... and that's before you start considering parallel routes such as the Harbord car.

You might have already guessed it, but the reason that primary travel along Eglinton is North-South... it's because for anyone West of Keele, it's way faster to just go down to the B-D. Eglinton would very much act almost exactly the same as the B-D, except increasing the reach of RT another 4 kilometers out into Etobicoke. That's plenty of people, and Eglinton actually does have a lot of density along it. A fairly similar suburban built out nature, but it has way more apartment blocks than B-D does. That equates to more people that the B-D, on top of the line having a lot of people that will switch to bus from car, and a lot of intercepted B-D passengers.

 

[rbt]

What happened to the experts that modeled that the Eglinton Corridor did justify a subway. Their numbers were made up but these numbers are not???

The actual people who model these things (sometimes students at University of Toronto or similar) do not recommend anything. They provide back numbers and only numbers that the model spits out which are based on a few variables like travel speed, wait times, etc.

The accounting folks (Metrolinx in this case) try to build a case study which supports a positive investment for one of those results based on the numbers. Frankly, looking at the BCA for Eglinton we shouldn't be building anything since a large portion of the "benefit" is for construction jobs. Meaning, we could hire people to move rocks from A to B then back to A and it would look good in a Metrolinx BCA.

Anyway, Eglinton has been recommended for BRT, Subway, and LRT over the last 20 years. Picking "subway" or "LRT" from he results isn't particularly helpful.

There has been one major change over that time period though. ATO is now a well proven technology and allows trains to run much closer together; line capacity for shorter vehicles increased.


If Eglinton was built using Toronto Rocket type technology, it would likely still be for 3 to 4 car trains. Frankly, I think Eglinton should be LRT for the exact same reason that the SRT should be replaced by subway; a one seat ride at the minimum capital investment.

 

[nfitz]

What happened to the experts that modeled that the Eglinton Corridor did justify a subway. Their numbers were made up but these numbers are not???

To what study are you referring? The 2001 RTES study forecast only 4,200 pphpd for 20 years in the future.

 

[nfitz]

That's plenty of people, and Eglinton actually does have a lot of density along it.

But a lot less than Bloor Danforth. If you look in the 2002 RTES follow-up study, only 11 stations had lower densities around them than Eglinton West station - none of which are on Danforth, and two are on Bloor (Kipling and Old Mill). Densities don't improve to the west of Eglinton West!

 

[fanoftoronto]

Yet, Kipling has a ridership of 50,000 per day! Density is only a part of the ridership of the station. If feeder buses exist then there will be decent ridership for the station. If density was an issue for building the Spadina extension then why the hell are we building it!! I don't think Sheppard west, Finch west and 407 stations have anywhere close to density as Eglinton west station!!

 

[nfitz]

Yet, Kipling has a ridership of 50,000 per day! Density is only a part of the ridership of the station. If feeder buses exist then there will be decent ridership for the station.

Oh good grief. I thought it went without saying that different rules apply to stations with a large number of bus routes.

Okay then, let's make a list of Eglinton line stations where they are planning for a large number of bus routes:





End of list. Get it?

 

[fanoftoronto]

Oh good grief. I thought it went without saying that different rules apply to stations with a large number of bus routes.

Okay then, let's make a list of Eglinton line stations where they are planning for a large number of bus routes:
End of list. Get it?

Accepted. But how many Bloor-Danforth stations do you think have multiple feeder buses? Here's the list of stations on the BD line that make serve more than 4 seperate bus routes:
Kipling
Islington
Dundas West
Broadview
Main
Victoria Park
Warden
Kennedy

8 out of 31 stations.

Most stations only have 2 or 3 feeder bus routes. Yet almost all their daily ridership numbers are above 15000. That's all you need for decent ridership, 2 or 3 feeder bus routes.

 

[nfitz]

Most stations only have 2 or 3 feeder bus routes. Yet almost all their daily ridership numbers are above 15000. That's all you need for decent ridership, 2 or 3 feeder bus routes.

So how do you go from there, to requiring subway on a route where future demand will be far more than LRT can handle in the foreseeable future?

 

[fanoftoronto]

So how do you go from there, to requiring subway on a route where future demand will be far more than LRT can handle in the foreseeable future?

Sorry didn't explain correctly. What I meant was that many Bloor-Danforth stations have only 2 or 3 feeder routes but still have an average of 15000 per station per day. Eglinton LRT's stations and stops will also have similar number of feeder bus routes. I'm not saying Eglinton LRT will be running crush capacity from day 1, but it will maybe 10 or 15 years after opening. What's the use of building infrastructure if it's just gonna be replaced 15 years after opening.

 

[Rainforest]

To what study are you referring? The 2001 RTES study forecast only 4,200 pphpd for 20 years in the future.

4,200 for the short stubway between Eglinton West and Black Creek? Not surprising at all.

But going from that short stubway to the full crosstown route (be it a subway, or an LRT with near-subway speed) and increasing that number to just 5,400? This is ... very counter-intuitive, to put it mildly.

 

[Rainforest]

Perhaps because the two corridors don't have the same density?

From posts of SimonP in another thread:

Bloor corridor (~Dupont to Lakeshore)
*Wards : 5, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 35, 36 (14 total)
*Population: 780,000
*Jobs: 608,000

Eglinton (~Dupont to 401)
*Wards: 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 21, 22, 25, 26, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38 (16 total)
*Population: 596,000
*Jobs: 258,000

North (Above the 401)
*Wards 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 23, 24, 39, 40, 41, 42 (12 total)
*Population: 1,087,000
*Jobs: 255,000

The population ratio between the Bloor and Eglinton corridors is about 4 : 3. That is nowhere near the predicted peak riderships ratio of 24,000 : 5,400, which is 4.5 : 1.

The jobs ratio is more in favor of Bloor, about 2.4 : 1, but still not 4.5 : 1. In addition, many Bloor corridor's jobs are in downtown (wards 20, 27, 28), and can be accessed using Eglinton (and transferring to Yonge or Spadina subway).

Overall, I'd be surprised to see the ratio between Bloor and the full crosstown Eglinton route to be more than 2 : 1.