Transit City Plan

[Rainforest]

If I remember correctly from looking in the Eglinton EA document, the highest demand is west of Eglinton West station. It stands to figure that most of those people would take the stubway. But not all, which is why the longer route has 30% more riders than the stubway. But that still is only barely over 5,000. I don't see how this is counter-intuitive. This has been studied to death by people more qualified than both of us.

Ridership base of the short stubway:
- Local walk-in
- Transfers from buses: Eglinton West, Treteway (32C), Dufferin, Caledonia, Keele, possibly Weston Rd; total 6 bus routes

Additional ridership base if the line reaches Pearson:
- Local walk-in from the Etobicoke section of Eglinton (some would get there by Eglinton West bus anyway, but higher-order transit can promote higher density)
- Transfers from buses: Jane, Royal York, Islington, Kipling, Martin Grove, possibly Dixon via Scarlett; total 6 additional buses
- Transfers from Mississauga Transitway
- Riders going to / from Pearson

That alone can cause the ridership to increase by a factor of 2.

Furthermore, the long crosstown route does not stop at Eglinton West, it continues to Yonge and beyond. This would add some rides from west of Allen to destination along Yonge line north of CBD, who would otherwise use Bloor.

Common sense suggests that the peak ridership should be 2 - 2.5 times higher for Eglinton Crosstown than for the short stubway, not those mere 30%.

Why do the models predict otherwise? Both of us don't know for sure, but I suspect that they underestimated the transfers from the N-S bus routes, or ignored them altogether.

The loose input assumption in that case is the prediction of riders' behavior. Will they stay on their bus till Bloor, or switch to Eglinton? Human behavior is difficult to predict, and that leaves room for either honest mistakes or deliberate manipulations.

I can't believe that 5,400 figure based solely on the credentials of those who did the modeling. If they show me how they modeled the riders behavior, and their assumptions look reasonable, then that's another matter.

 

[nfitz]

Ridership base of the short stubway:
- Local walk-in
- Transfers from buses: Eglinton West, Treteway (32C), Dufferin, Caledonia, Keele, possibly Weston Rd; total 6 bus routes

Additional ridership base if the line reaches Pearson:
- Local walk-in from the Etobicoke section of Eglinton (some would get there by Eglinton West bus anyway, but higher-order transit can promote higher density)
- Transfers from buses: Jane, Royal York, Islington, Kipling, Martin Grove, possibly Dixon via Scarlett; total 6 additional buses
- Transfers from Mississauga Transitway
- Riders going to / from Pearson

That alone can cause the ridership to increase by a factor of 2.

Furthermore, the long crosstown route does not stop at Eglinton West, it continues to Yonge and beyond. This would add some rides from west of Allen to destination along Yonge line north of CBD, who would otherwise use Bloor.

Common sense suggests that the peak ridership should be 2 - 2.5 times higher for Eglinton Crosstown than for the short stubway, not those mere 30%.

Why do the models predict otherwise? Both of us don't know for sure, but I suspect that they underestimated the transfers from the N-S bus routes, or ignored them altogether.

The loose input assumption in that case is the prediction of riders' behavior. Will they stay on their bus till Bloor, or switch to Eglinton? Human behavior is difficult to predict, and that leaves room for either honest mistakes or deliberate manipulations.

I can't believe that 5,400 figure based solely on the credentials of those who did the modeling. If they show me how they modeled the riders behavior, and their assumptions look reasonable, then that's another matter.

A whole bunch of people a lot smarter than you or I have consistently come up with a number much smaller that what you fetish.

It doesn't really matter what creative accounting you pull out of your imagination ... it still doesn't mean anything.

 

[Fresh Start]

A whole bunch of people a lot smarter than you or I have consistently come up with a number much smaller that what you fetish.

It doesn't really matter what creative accounting you pull out of your imagination ... it still doesn't mean anything.

Speak for yourself, now that I would believe.

When people go out of their way to provide you with references and you still deny their credibility (when you consistently do not cite your sources), then there's no reason anyone has to take your opinions as valid. 5400 ppdph is pure BS, I stand that statement and will continue to do so until the TTC proves me wrong.

 

[Fresh Start]

Accepted. But how many Bloor-Danforth stations do you think have multiple feeder buses? Here's the list of stations on the BD line that make serve more than 4 seperate bus routes:
Kipling
Islington
Dundas West
Broadview
Main
Victoria Park
Warden
Kennedy

8 out of 31 stations.

Most stations only have 2 or 3 feeder bus routes. Yet almost all their daily ridership numbers are above 15000. That's all you need for decent ridership, 2 or 3 feeder bus routes.

And don't forget where Kennedy Station is located... EGLINTON AVENUE EAST.

An Eglinton subway would have a lot of viable transfer stations along the way. Highway 27, Mount Dennis, Trethewey, Yonge-Eglinton, OSC, Eglinton Square, Kennedy. With these stops in place as a buffer zone, those stops listed along the Bloor Line would see far less traffic.

 

[nfitz]

Speak for yourself, now that I would believe.

I was being polite. I'm sure I've programmed more demand models than you ever have!

When people go out of their way to provide you with references and you still deny their credibility (when you consistently do not cite your sources), then there's no reason anyone has to take your opinions as valid. 5400 ppdph is pure BS, I stand that statement and will continue to do so until the TTC proves me wrong.

I do believe I provided a reference for both the 5,400 and the 1991 RTES. I haven't seen a reference for any of your numbers.

 

[nfitz]

And don't forget where Kennedy Station is located... EGLINTON AVENUE EAST.

Oh good grief ... haven't we covered that contingency before? Besides, the subway that is currently being built doesn't go east of Don Mills.

 

[Fresh Start]

But a lot less than Bloor Danforth. If you look in the 2002 RTES follow-up study, only 11 stations had lower densities around them than Eglinton West station - none of which are on Danforth, and two are on Bloor (Kipling and Old Mill). Densities don't improve to the west of Eglinton West!

http://www.toronto.ca/demographics/profiles_map_and_index.htm

CPA Neighbourhoods #11, 7, 8, 9, 10, 115, 111, 112, 110, 108, 109, 106, 107, 100, 103, 101, 102, 104, 99, 56, 55, 44, 120, 124, 125, 138, and 139 all include Eglinton Avenue as part of their community and for most, their boundaries do not extend up or down to the next major concession road (Lawrence or St Clair). Therefore, StatsCan's 2006 population densities for the entire Eglinton corridor should be relatively concise and accurate.

When added all up 416,995 people live in its vicinity. Therefore thats 12,265.6 persons per kilometre or 0.0774802063 per square kilometre over 34 kms. Hypothetically, if even one-third of all these people were public transit users or became inticed to do so because of the presence of a new subway running through their neighbourhood, that breaks down to a minimum peak hour usage of 8687 ppdph. And that's just those people living closeby to Eglinton; not accounting for airport users share, ACC user share, MT Transitway user share, Brampton/Malton/Woodbridge user share, Lawrence/Wilson user share, Don Mills user share, eastern GTA user share, etc.

But back to your suggestion that Eglinton West would be underused. As the map above illustrates, the most tightly congested population densities in the entire city occur immediately around Eglinton Avenue from the area of Mount Dennis to Mount Pleasant.

 

[Fresh Start]

I was being polite. I'm sure I've programmed more demand models than you ever have!

I do believe I provided a reference for both the 5,400 and the 1991 RTES. I haven't seen a reference for any of your numbers.

I wasn't talking about myself, although I certainly try to do my best to back up my claims. But gweed, Keithz, Ansem, Scarberian, Rainforest and a lot of others here have consistently been providing evidence which contradicts many of the official stats that you either choose to ignore or ridicule. Why is it so hard for you to consider that the TTC might have made an error; but has invested so much time, effort and money in convincing the public that their findings are infallible that it's just easier for them to propagate a fallacy, than to admit their shortcomings?

The day when the TTC can accurately predict when, where and how customers are arriving at their lines; where their points of origin and final destination are; and that commute time in getting to one's nearest rapid transit line is not a factor in determining which corridor is best suited for the masses - then I will concede. Until then, I'm rolling my eyes in disgust as the TTC tries to justify a 6.5 billion dollar, 20 km long LRT line with less occupant capacity than a T1 which will need to be replaced by a T1 within 30 years of operation.

 

[nfitz]

But back to your suggestion that Eglinton West would be underused. As the map above illustrates, the most tightly congested population densities in the entire city occur immediately around Eglinton Avenue from the area of Mount Dennis to Mount Pleasant.

If Eglinton Avenue near Eglinton West station is one of the most tightly congested areas in the entire city, then why does it rank as one of the stations in the least dense places in the city in the RTES study?

One again - smarter people than you have done real estimates here. Your estimate are just silly ... even if only 1/3 were public transit users indeed. That's a high modal split ... and doesn't even start to account for those that don't work, etc.

Your just pulling numbers out of your imagination to support screwball ideas. Point me to a real estimate ... not your made-up numbers.

 

[Fresh Start]

Um, Eglinton West the corridor stretches from Yonge St to the Mississauga border. I thought it would've been implied that that's what I meant. And at 20,710 ppd, Eglinton West Stn is still one of the highest used Spadina Line stops with only 3 feeder routes. There's 7 BIAs between Yonge and Weston Rd and has the heaviest concentration of CPAs in the city.

And I hate to break it to you but the TTC is also making hypothetical claims. They don't know for certain where population growth or decline will occur. The census is a good place to start one's analysis in predicting daily use. That and current ridership stats which also suggest higher than 5400 ppdph would use an Eglinton Line. The biggest hindrance to my prediction is whether they build partially road-median LRT vs. exclusive ROW HRT, for more people would be attracted to using the latter.

 

[nfitz]

I thought it would've been implied that that's what I meant. And at 20,710 ppd, Eglinton West Stn is still one of the highest used Spadina Line stops

It is currently well used. But it's not based on density near the station. It's based mostly on the ridership arriving on the Eglinton East bus. After the Eglinton line is finished, usage will still be good - but only because of people transferring from line to line.

And I hate to break it to you but the TTC is also making hypothetical claims. They don't know for certain where population growth or decline will occur.

That's the weakness of any demand model; and the accuracy will only diminish with time. However day 1 estimates are normally reasonable ... and you are arguing that the current situation would justify subway-level demands - not the situation years down the road when they forecast 5400.

 

[kettal]

When added all up 416,995 people live in its vicinity. Therefore thats 12,265.6 persons per kilometre or 0.0774802063 per square kilometre over 34 kms. Hypothetically, if even one-third of all these people were public transit users or became inticed to do so because of the presence of a new subway running through their neighbourhood, that breaks down to a minimum peak hour usage of 8687 ppdph. And that's just those people living closeby to Eglinton; not accounting for airport users share, ACC user share, MT Transitway user share, Brampton/Malton/Woodbridge user share, Lawrence/Wilson user share, Don Mills user share, eastern GTA user share, etc.

But back to your suggestion that Eglinton West would be underused. As the map above illustrates, the most tightly congested population densities in the entire city occur immediately around Eglinton Avenue from the area of Mount Dennis to Mount Pleasant.

What a joke. So now you think schoolchildren, retirees, night workers, house wives, and people who work in Mississauga will start getting on peak-hour, peak-direction transit for fun every morning? Heck, I'd be surprised if even a quarter of that population had jobs downtown. And I don't know what the ACC has to do with this? How many NHL games are scheduled to start at 9 AM on a week day??

 

[Second_in_pie]

But that means that 5% of people living in the area taking Eglinton to get to work in the morning would cause some serious congestion problems with a LRT. And remember, we've shown that Eglinton has a very similar density to Bloor, being relatively equal even when the B-D is blown outta proportion by using the Downtown demographics for it's density. If you're trying to say that Eglinton's somehow going to get a fraction of what the B-D currently has, though maintaining a similar density as well and connecting the city to the airport, I don't think your logic can be trusted.

 

[Fresh Start]

What a joke. So now you think schoolchildren, retirees, night workers, house wives, and people who work in Mississauga will start getting on peak-hour, peak-direction transit for fun every morning? Heck, I'd be surprised if even a quarter of that population had jobs downtown. And I don't know what the ACC has to do with this? How many NHL games are scheduled to start at 9 AM on a week day??

Oh dear. In your neverending, forever failing attempts at discrediting me you overlooked the obvious meaning of ACC in this context, Airport Corporate Centre.

Also, what if all those groups plus regular 9-to-5 workers just happened to all be along the Eglinton Line at the same time. When I lived off Lansdowne during my teens I attended Western Tech and most often took the subway over to Runnymede to get to school on time, so don't act like similar non-work related reliance on Eglinton couldn't occur. One can focus on maximum potential usage in a one-hour period or the knowledge that Eglinton subway would have 24/7/365 walk-in levels of demand just based on the heavy concentration of people living within a kilometre of the corridor alone, and particularly if fed directly into Pearson.

The irony of you ridiculing my findings is that I've at least provided a chain of evidence to illustrate how I arrived at my figures, which right or wrong, is far more than I've seen from the TTC in all my years of combing through their Transit City documentation.

 

[rbt]

Oh dear. In your neverending, forever failing attempts at discrediting me you overlooked the obvious meaning of ACC in this context, Airport Corporate Centre.

Most stuff to/from the airport area for work purposes will be counterflow. Given the current number of people taking the Malton and 192; you can probably setup a bowling alley on the Eglinton LRT during that portion of their run.

If you are really concerned about LRT congestion to the airport, you might want to check your numbers again.