saveoursubways (SOS)

[Ansem]

If I remember correctly though, most of, if not all of, TC is in the 15 year portion of the Metrolinx plan. The most recent estimate for TC has been $15 billion, which is what we're basing our plan off of. And yes, there is a report that is currently under development.

And yes, it is more expensive (granted we have used very conservative cost estimates), but having that entire portion grade-separated will significantly increase reliability. There is still a debate whether or not it should be subway, or grade-separated LRT.

And is an additional BRT network which we are proposing (which wasn't included on the subway map), but covers most of the corridors of TC. Don Mills north of Eglinton has a BRT along it (or rather a BRT Light, which is comprised of curbside cut-outs, cue jump lanes, and signal priority). As does Highway 27, Finch (from 27 to Malvern), Jane, Don Mills, Kingston, and Ellesmere. We have yet to get exact costing on this, but the infrastructure investment of doing cue jump lanes, curbside cut-outs, and signal priority is negligable compared to an LRT ROW.

If I might add something...

Now that Eglinton LRT (Now the ONLY Rapid Transit CIty Line) will have subway speed from Pearson to Don Mills,

Would it be better to leave it the way it is and cut the cost of our plan so we could have more chance to match TC 15B or make it lower...

 

[nfitz]

Don Mills north of Eglinton has a BRT along it (or rather a BRT Light, which is comprised of curbside cut-outs, cue jump lanes, and signal priority).

Wouldn't curbside cut-outs be slower than what's there now, with the existing HOV lane, which also act as queue jump lanes? Signal priority might do a bit.

 

[Fresh Start]

If I might add something...

Now that Eglinton LRT (Now the ONLY Rapid Transit CIty Line) will have subway speed from Pearson to Don Mills,

Would it be better to leave it the way it is and cut the cost of our plan so we could have more chance to match TC 15B or make it lower...

No it won't. For it to have subwaylike speeds and timeliness the route would have to be fully grade-separated the whole length. The alignment between Martin Grove/Eglinton and the airport would have to be more concise instead of a meandering jaunt of the ACC/Silver Dart. Stations would have to be omitted. It can only tap the higher end of 28-31kmph speed projections if someone doesn't request a stop at Mulham, Eden Valley, Wincott or Lloyd Manor en route. Building these stop locations in the first place (instead of operating a parallel bus a la the 85A) will encourage just that, pedestrians requesting those stops each and every trip. And the trip could be stalled by red lights at any of these intersections regardless. Subwaylike speeds only begin east of Keele.

Plus it is mighty hypocriticial of you to suggest that a larger ridership base be subjected to lower transit standards yet be pushing so hard for a Sheppard West subway that'll carry far less people.

Compare/contrast shall we:

98 Willowdale-Senlac
Total ridership: 1700 daily
Senlac segment roughly half of that = 850
pphpd = 53

7 Bathurst
Total ridership: 21,400 daiily
Divide the corridor into roughly three segments: Bloor to Eglinton, Eglinton to Sheppard, Sheppard to Steeles; the latter then being = 7133
pphpd = 446

104 Faywood
Total ridership: 2700 daily
pphpd = 169

And of Sheppard West itself?
16000 ppd; two segments east and west of Keele St = 8000 respectively
So natural ridership levels for the Downsview-Yonge segment are 500pphpd.

This amounts to for a Sheppard West subway 18,683ppd or 1168pphpd.

By contrast...
58 Malton = 11,250 of 15,000ppd or 703pphpd
112 West Mall = 3850 of 7700ppd or 241pphpd
11 East Mall = 3050 of 6100ppd or 191pphpd
46 Martin Grove = 8050 of 16,100ppd or 503pphpd
45 Kipling = 9250 of 18,500ppd or 578pphpd
37 Islington = 8300 of 16,600ppd of 519pphpd
73 Royal York = 8900ppd or 556.25pphpd
76 Scarlett = 7400ppd or 463pphpd
35 Jane = 19,500 of 39000ppd or 1219pphpd
89 Weston = 10,650 of 14,200ppd or 666pphpd
32 Eglinton West = 20,550 of 41,100 or 1284pphpd
---
Total for Eglinton West subway= 110,750ppd or 6922pphpd
And that is before the Mississauaga Transitway numbers, the local MT routes numbers, the GO Transit transfers numbers, the Finch-Hwy 27 rapid transit numbers and the tally of new customers adding onto existing daily patronage. Easily another 30,000 daily users could be added onto this total for 8797pphpd.

Meanwhile the TYSSE project through roughly the same region and with similar adjacent land usage as Shep West will only be at 2300pphpd by the year 2031. So add in a complex crossing of the West Don between Senlac and Bathurst and one really begins to question the validity of the entire SOS scheme, especially with a seamless Finch West LRT or F.H.C. BRT possibility only 2 kms to the north just as capable of providing a direct rapid link between the two YUS arms and to Bathurst St at lesser expense.

So you might want to be thread lightly before dismissing the significance of an Eglinton West subway when there components of your plan that can so readily be admonished by professionals who are aware of these ridership level discrepancies, not to mention where corridors are in relation to existing and future developments and nodal travel patterns.

 

[Ansem]

No it won't. For it to have subwaylike speeds and timeliness the route would have to be fully grade-separated the whole length. The alignment between Martin Grove/Eglinton and the airport would have to be more concise instead of a meandering jaunt of the ACC/Silver Dart. Stations would have to be omitted. It can only tap the higher end of 28-31kmph speed projections if someone doesn't request a stop at Mulham, Eden Valley, Wincott or Lloyd Manor en route. Building these stop locations in the first place (instead of operating a parallel bus a la the 85A) will encourage just that, pedestrians requesting those stops each and every trip. And the trip could be stalled by red lights at any of these intersections regardless. Subwaylike speeds only begin east of Keele.

Plus it is mighty hypocriticial of you to suggest that a larger ridership base be subjected to lower transit standards yet be pushing so hard for a Sheppard West subway that'll carry far less people.

Compare/contrast shall we:

98 Willowdale-Senlac
Total ridership: 1700 daily
Senlac segment roughly half of that = 850
pphpd = 53

7 Bathurst
Total ridership: 21,400 daiily
Divide the corridor into roughly three segments: Bloor to Eglinton, Eglinton to Sheppard, Sheppard to Steeles; the latter then being = 7133
pphpd = 446

104 Faywood
Total ridership: 2700 daily
pphpd = 169

And of Sheppard West itself?
16000 ppd; two segments east and west of Keele St = 8000 respectively
So natural ridership levels for the Downsview-Yonge segment are 500pphpd.

This amounts to for a Sheppard West subway 18,683ppd or 1168pphpd.

By contrast...
58 Malton = 11,250 of 15,000ppd or 703pphpd
112 West Mall = 3850 of 7700ppd or 241pphpd
11 East Mall = 3050 of 6100ppd or 191pphpd
46 Martin Grove = 8050 of 16,100ppd or 503pphpd
45 Kipling = 9250 of 18,500ppd or 578pphpd
37 Islington = 8300 of 16,600ppd of 519pphpd
73 Royal York = 8900ppd or 556.25pphpd
76 Scarlett = 7400ppd or 463pphpd
35 Jane = 19,500 of 39000ppd or 1219pphpd
89 Weston = 10,650 of 14,200ppd or 666pphpd
32 Eglinton West = 20,550 of 41,100 or 1284pphpd
---
Total for Eglinton West subway= 110,750ppd or 6922pphpd
And that is before the Mississauaga Transitway numbers, the local MT routes numbers, the GO Transit transfers numbers, the Finch-Hwy 27 rapid transit numbers and the tally of new customers adding onto existing daily patronage. Easily another 30,000 daily users could be added onto this total for 8797pphpd.

Meanwhile the TYSSE project through roughly the same region and with similar adjacent land usage as Shep West will only be at 2300pphpd by the year 2031. So add in a complex crossing of the West Don between Senlac and Bathurst and one really begins to question the validity of the entire SOS scheme, especially with a seamless Finch West LRT or F.H.C. BRT possibility only 2 kms to the north just as capable of providing a direct rapid link between the two YUS arms and to Bathurst St at lesser expense.

So you might want to be thread lightly before dismissing the significance of an Eglinton West subway when there components of your plan that can so readily be admonished by professionals who are aware of these ridership level discrepancies, not to mention where corridors are in relation to existing and future developments and nodal travel patterns.

1-I was asking and others have said the same thing

2-I didn't know the details that you've just explained so yes I still support subway using your arguments

3-Pusing Sheppard is not only base on ridership but in a urbanism point of view as well (see post in SOS group page) which would be replacated on Eglinton...

Also, 2 town Centres separated by 2 different mode of transit:
1 slow
1 fast

4-I don't live in Scarborough by the way...

5-calling name was unnecessary, since I still support subway,

I brought it up because it would be a matter of time before those against us would bring it up and we never discussed it so far. With your arguments, you pretty much nailed it there with the fact that speed would drop if the LRT stopped often and if signal priority is as "effective" as on other parts of the city.

Happy?

 

[doady]

What about the York U bus? 196 I think. That is a verry busy bus route... though less busy on the Sheppard section obviously, but the improved connectivity to a subway serving York U should still be important to consider for Sheppard...

 

[Ansem]

What about the York U bus? 196 I think. That is a verry busy bus route... though less busy on the Sheppard section obviously, but the improved connectivity to a subway serving York U should still be important to consider for Sheppard...

Once Spadina extension opens, they will most likely get rid of it.

As for 196B, serving Sheppard-Yonge and Downsview, Transit City Bus would see the 84 have an Express on Sheppard Avenue that would replace the 196B...

Then they would have to transfer at Downsview or Sheppard West... That's the TTC being efficient for you...

 

[Juan_Lennon416]

I was heading home on the #85 Sheppard East bus around 6:30PM and the traffic between Highway 404 and Warden Avenue was crazy!!

I wonder if the Sheppard East LRT will be upgraded to a subway as soon as the ridership numbers for a subway are there or will the TTC drag its feet?

 

[Fresh Start]

1-I was asking and others have said the same thing

2-I didn't know the details that you've just explained so yes I still support subway using your arguments

3-Pusing Sheppard is not only base on ridership but in a urbanism point of view as well (see post in SOS group page) which would be replacated on Eglinton...

Also, 2 town Centres separated by 2 different mode of transit:
1 slow
1 fast

4-I don't live in Scarborough by the way...

5-calling name was unnecessary, since I still support subway,

I brought it up because it would be a matter of time before those against us would bring it up and we never discussed it so far. With your arguments, you pretty much nailed it there with the fact that speed would drop if the LRT stopped often and if signal priority is as "effective" as on other parts of the city.

Happy?

Yes, I think I am. Sorry if I over-reacted. I happen to think Sheppard East and Bloor-Danforth to SCC are the most pressing issues like the rest of you feel. That response was well overdue though given the general misconceptions going on around here that the ECLRT at-grade operations are in any comparable to subway standards; or that Eglinton has too low a passenger volume/deamnd level to qualify for a HRT. And providing true rapid transit to the airport is a common good that will benefit all of the GTA. It should be one of Metrolinx's top focuses, along with fasttracking the DRL. I don't know why anyone in their right mind would object to us wanting it to be built and done right. So if we're to be worried that our budget's running too close to $15 B and something has to be sacrificed from Phase 1, there are other options ahead of Eglinton that should be getting the axe, IMO.

 

[Dan416]

We have our plan, but we also have the things that we need to focus on, and in my opinion, Eglinton isn't one of them, because while I would love it to be a subway, I think the LRT is sufficient for now. Eglinton is the only line on our plan that isn't set in stone as being HRT or LRT. DRL must be HRT. All the current HRT lines must be expanded as HRT. But since Eglinton is a new line, we don't have the same level of justification for HRT as for say, Sheppard or Danforth.

That's why I think it's best we leave the issue of what technology Eglinton uses somewhat ambiguous. It's not as pressing. SOS should be mainly concerned with stopping the real big mistakes. I don't think an Eglinton LRT would be a big mistake. I definitely think it COULD be subway. But I don't think we need to fight tooth-and-nail to make sure it is.

Sheppard and the SRT replacement are just such HUGE mistakes we need to focus, focus FOCUS on those two things. There is already a DRL advocacy movement. Maybe we need to just focus on those two and leave DRL out?

 

[Fresh Start]

I was heading home on the #85 Sheppard East bus around 6:30PM and the traffic between Highway 404 and Warden Avenue was crazy!!

I wonder if the Sheppard East LRT will be upgraded to a subway as soon as the ridership numbers for a subway are there or will the TTC drag its feet?

They're not going to admit their mistakes. That's why 25 years later we still have a Scarborough RT line running to a major urban growth centre with a defunct technology mode. Instead of correcting the mistake by replacing the line with a subway, which Scarborough MPPs overwhelmingly are in favour of, they want to preserve the corridor and make it even longer.

What's sad about your description is that the subway could've navigated that distance within 7 minutes. I expect the SELRT to take twice as long. Once the tracks are layed and things become modus operandi for the TTC, they'll be relunctant to upgrade the corridor to metros. And even if they do, it'll be after $1 B of the taxpayer's money was just spent on LRT for the same exact corridor. So if subways ever came to fruition it'd probably be several decades off. That's why we must strike now while there's still a slim chance of salvaging NYCC-SCC via subways. The fact that LRT construction's starting from the east to west gives us some time.

 

[Second_in_pie]

What I'd say is that Eglinton and the B-D are very comparable. Right off the bat, if there was an Eglinton subway from Pearson to Don Mills, it would have a ridership comparable to the B-D. That being, it's ridership in 2020 would be similar to the B-D's ridership in 2020.
Sheppard's a totally different story though. You can't really compare Sheppard to the B-D, firstly because of the geography in distance between them, and the nature of the route. Sheppard will be directly hitting 2 major growth nodes (STC and NYCC,) as well as 3 or 4 other growth and employment centres (Agincourt, Consumer's, Downsview, Bayview?) The B-D actually can't really compare to that. I'm not saying the ridership's going to automatically be higher, but there's potential, and there's definitely potential for tonnes (tonnes!) of intensification basically along the entire route. Eglinton can get this intensification as well, mainly in the western portion (Richview Corridor, as well as tonnes of mixed-use gentrification potential around and west of Allen.) Phase I Eglinton would also be anchored by Pearson, which will definitely have an impact on it's service.

EDIT: This post is now concerning the past discussion over Eglinton/Sheppard/whatever.

I'd just like to point out that my opinion is for a subway-grade Eglinton line as well, and not just leaving it as a compromise of the LRT-subway debate.

 

[Rainforest]

Here's the table from the report. It's divided into 3 sections (comparative to TC, separate from TC, and then phase 2). Phase 1 is equal to TC.

Well, nice breakdown of the network components and their costs.

Now, some criticism. First, two minor points:

1) No need to include "Spadina Subway Extension, Downsview to Vaughan" in the table. This project is already funded, is separate from Transit City, and is irreversible at this point. Including it just makes your plan look more expensive than it really is. You can just draw TYSSE on your map as if it is already built.

2) At a glance, it looks like you are building DRL (Pape to Eglinton) earlier than DRL (Spadina to Pape). The former is in the first column, the latter is in the second. I know that this is not what you mean; but someone not familiar with the previous conversations, might think just that.

Two bigger issues:

3) Your plan implies that 15 billion (your estimated cost of Transit City) are already committed, and can be redirected to Move Toronto.

In reality, Transit City has been de-facto split into Transit City 1A (Sheppard East, Finch, SRT, Eglinton) which is already funded (about 8 billion), and Transit City 1B (Don Mills, Jane, SMLRT, Waterfront West) which is not funded, and might never be.

So, if say the mayor, TTC chair, and Metrolinx chair decided to adopt your plan instead of Transit City, they would have to shuffle through your "Phase I", trim it, and create real Phase I which fits into the committed 8 billion (save for a new funding windfall, which looks very unlikely now). And the need to shuffle would reinforce psychological resistance to your plan.

Perhaps it would be better to change the columns in the table, so that the first column is real Phase 1 (within the already committed 8 billion), second column is Phase 2 (additional 7 billion, so Phase I + II fits into your 15 billion Transit City estimate), and the third column is Phase 3 (everything that does not fit into 15 billion).

4) Your plan looks unfriendly to the north-west and north-west. Transit City gives them LRT lines, but your map of subway proposals does not give them anything.

I know that you would like to see BRT going there, but some readers of you plan will just miss that part.

 

[Second_in_pie]

3) Your plan implies that 15 billion (your estimated cost of Transit City) are already committed, and can be redirected to Move Toronto.

In reality, Transit City has been de-facto split into Transit City 1A (Sheppard East, Finch, SRT, Eglinton) which is already funded (about 8 billion), and Transit City 1B (Don Mills, Jane, SMLRT, Waterfront West) which is not funded, and might never be.

So, if say the mayor, TTC chair, and Metrolinx chair decided to adopt your plan instead of Transit City, they would have to shuffle through your "Phase I", trim it, and create real Phase I which fits into the committed 8 billion (save for a new funding windfall, which looks very unlikely now). And that would reinforce psychological resistance to your plan.

I'm pretty confident that that extra $7 billion could be found. However, there are some things to note on the cost estimates.

The DRL is likely to be funded independently from TC and, either way, they're both going to be built. Either don't include the DRL in cost estimates, or include it in a necessary cost estimate in TC, based on the same estimates you have for MO's DRL.

 

[Dan416]

What I'd say is that Eglinton and the B-D are very comparable. Right off the bat, if there was an Eglinton subway from Pearson to Don Mills, it would have a ridership comparable to the B-D. That being, it's ridership in 2020 would be similar to the B-D's ridership in 2020.
Sheppard's a totally different story though. You can't really compare Sheppard to the B-D, firstly because of the geography in distance between them, and the nature of the route. Sheppard will be directly hitting 2 major growth nodes (STC and NYCC,) as well as 3 or 4 other growth and employment centres (Agincourt, Consumer's, Downsview, Bayview?) The B-D actually can't really compare to that. I'm not saying the ridership's going to automatically be higher, but there's potential, and there's definitely potential for tonnes (tonnes!) of intensification basically along the entire route. Eglinton can get this intensification as well, mainly in the western portion (Richview Corridor, as well as tonnes of mixed-use gentrification potential around and west of Allen.) Phase I Eglinton would also be anchored by Pearson, which will definitely have an impact on it's service.

EDIT: This post is now concerning the past discussion over Eglinton/Sheppard/whatever.

I'd just like to point out that my opinion is for a subway-grade Eglinton line as well, and not just leaving it as a compromise of the LRT-subway debate.

I think we need all three. Bloor-Danforth is our southern east-west subway line; Eglinton is the central east-west subway, and Sheppard is our northern east-west line (although only west to Downsview). I don't think Sheppard will ever rival the other two for length; that's why we need Eglinton.

 

[Rainforest]

I'm pretty confident that that extra $7 billion could be found.

If I could borrow your confidence : ) ...

Imagine that you are a business owner. You've just secured 8 billion in loans, at a reasonable rate, to build a new factory. You are aware that compromises had been made to fit into 8 billion. Some pieces of equipment will have mediocre performance, while other pieces might be pushed to capacity if your product becomes really popular. But you know that overall, the factory will be profitable. The design is well underway and the construction is about to start.

Then, suddenly, a bright engineer comes up with an alternative plan. According to the new plan, the factory will cost 15 billion. But it will be free of the above shortcoming, and generate greater profit that will cover the extra costs in 10 years. You like the new plan. But to implement it, you have to halt any construction, spend a year more for new design, and secure extra loans - all while making your previous investors nervous and frustrated.

Will you adopt the new plan? Chances are, you will proceed with the original one.

However, what if the same engineer comes up with a phased plan? "First, let's build part of the factory for 8 billion we already have. That part will operate and generate profits. Meanwhile, we will secure 7 billion in loans for the remaining equipment." Now, there is a much better chance that you accept the new plan.