This election will be won or lost hinging on the results of specific highly populated Wards...Pollers should be adjusting their sights to specifically gauging Wards 15, 16, 23, 24, 25, 41, 42 and 44. I think it is too early to tell how these wards are going to break
Etobicoke (1,2,3)/York (7,8,9,11,12) will vote R Ford as first choice most of which are lower populated/elector wards
Old City and Old Scarborough (13,14,15,17,18,19,20,21,22,27,28,29,30,31,32,35,36) will break Chow/Tory how the split will be I'm not sure as neither at this point is really grabbing voters with their vision and there are differing geographical imperatives
I expect Don Valley (26,33,34,39,40) to be a three way split with a slight advantage to Tory
And the we come to R Ford's Scarborough strength (37,38,43)...priority neighbourhood wards
R Ford is hanging his hat on getting TCHC vote out...164,000 tenents...probably 82,000 voting age...probably 75% eligible to vote...being generous maybe 60% of that will go to the polls...37,000 at the top end. I expect somewhere around 350,000 will be necessary to win the election....If R Ford polls 50% again with a 60% turnout in Etob/York and his Scarborough wards that is another 101,692 votes....so the possibility here is if R Ford polls in the above he is 211,308 votes from 350,000 and considering there will be another 712,857 voters available with a 60% turnout in the rest of Toronto... R Ford needs less than 30% of those voters to get returned...