I'll be shocked if he draws more than 20%, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with less than 15%, maybe as low as 10%. Tory made the first couple of sallies into negative territory over the Toronto Hydro budget. It's just going to get worse -- Soknacki's police budget plan projection slides will be another stick to beat Ford, although I'd expect it'll be Chow that uses it. "Did you see this chart from rival Soks? Ford has us living in a police state, when he said he was cutting their budget. He's a liar AND a thug!"
I'm looking forward to Tory on the negative attack front. I think he's nimble enough after all those years of yammering with the radio callers to not get sidetracked by Hizzoner's obtuseness.
ETA: Well, I guess y'all know that I'll be at the lower end of basic's pool, then... ;-)