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News Roundup for June 28, 2024
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Rob Ford's Toronto

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Cooper said:
Wowsa! When I first saw those numbers, I thought this was another "poll" from some little website or something. But no. It's Nanos. (Link below is the Star story) Interesting contrast to the Forum results. Very happy to see Rob's way down in the back... and that few voters see him as second choice.

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...has_the_lead_in_new_toronto_mayoral_poll.html

ETA: I wonder if this is raw poll data. Other firms weight the results to account for likely voter behaviour. The Star story only says it was a random sample of 600, which I believe is the minimum number that polling companies say you need to get a meaningful result.
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If they're adding second choices into the poll results, I'm not sure how useful that is. Basically, lots of Chow supporters would vote for Tory if they had to, but not many Tory supporters would vote for Chow. Since neither of them are likely to drop out of the race, it doesn't seem like that's really relevant.
 
sno man said:
Enjoyable to be sure, but if the rest of the result has maybe fudgy numbers, I'm not sure how big the grain of salt has to be for any one part of it...
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It clearly shows that either Chow or Tory will be mayor in October. People will vote to keep Ford out, so it could be a real horse race between the two.
 
OSS 117 said:
If they're adding second choices into the poll results, I'm not sure how useful that is. Basically, lots of Chow supporters would vote for Tory if they had to, but not many Tory supporters would vote for Chow. Since neither of them are likely to drop out of the race, it doesn't seem like that's really relevant.
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Polling for second choices helps determine if a candidate has room for growth. In this case, it's data that suggests Rob's numbers are pretty much stuck where they are.
 
sno man said:
The guy that runs Nanos is a buddy of Tory's, and the convenience store lobby that paid for it is gunning to get beer into their stores which is an idea that Tory supports. Plus that is a really small sample size. But I suppose he could actually be in first by 6 points...
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As long as the sample set is suitably random, 600 is more than enough to get an accurate poll.
 
animatronic said:
As long as the sample set is suitably random, 600 is more than enough to get an accurate poll.
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Agreed. The mathematically-correct sample sizes you need to measure 2.8 million people may seem surprisingly small. My sample size calculator sez 600 interviews will give you a percentage, with a 4% margin of error, 95 times out of 100.

Though their measurement methods are not exhaustive like voting, these recent polls are telling the main story. The majority of Torontonians *don't* want Ford as mayor. Things *have* changed since 2010.

Good thing for some politicians that they can "ignore the polls". And be high-minded about it.
 
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Extremely rare. As rare as a caiman cavorting in a High Park pond...

ddale8 8:05pm via Twitter for iPhone
Mayor Ford is doing an extremely rare pre-9 a.m. media event tomorrow, on Eglinton, likely to oppose the Eglinton Connects project.
 
tiffer24 said:
Extremely rare. As rare as a caiman cavorting in a High Park pond...

ddale8 8:05pm via Twitter for iPhone
Mayor Ford is doing an extremely rare pre-9 a.m. media event tomorrow, on Eglinton, likely to oppose the Eglinton Connects project.
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Shouldn't be so bad. There be plenty of Timmie's on Eglinton Avenue.

Eglinton Connects? If Cycle Toronto is to be believed (communists all shurely) "the LRT can carry up to 15,000 people per hour per direction - the car lanes top out at 2,000."

So who's fighting who in the War on The Car?
 
tiffer24 said:
Extremely rare. As rare as a caiman cavorting in a High Park pond...

ddale8 8:05pm via Twitter for iPhone
Mayor Ford is doing an extremely rare pre-9 a.m. media event tomorrow, on Eglinton, likely to oppose the Eglinton Connects project.
Click to expand...

No way he's getting there before 10.
 
animatronic said:
As long as the sample set is suitably random, 600 is more than enough to get an accurate poll.
Click to expand...

Yep. Back in the day when I was concerned with the occasional survey, the companies told us that 600 respondents was the basic number you needed to get a meaningful result. The effect of larger sample sizes (which are more expensive) was to reduce the margin of error.
 
Cooper said:
Yep. Back in the day when I was concerned with the occasional survey, the companies told us that 600 respondents was the basic number you needed to get a meaningful result. The effect of larger sample sizes (which are more expensive) was to reduce the margin of error.
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So, then. Within the (cheaper, as affirmed by your experience) sample size Tory and Chow are statistically tied - Within the margin of error Chow tops at about 37, at his trough Tory's at 35 - according to Nanos. One supposes the good news is Ford's cresting at 25, bottoming at 17. While one can question the motives of the poll's commissioners, it's difficult to impugn the methodology. That said, it's a larger than normal MoE. But, hey, $.

No fan of Olivia, lukewarm to JT, but it's nice to see one that makes Ford a non-issue. Sadly, my personal choice will be between those two imputed front-runners, neither of whom are great.

Biggest problem with this, if in any way accurate, is it validates Kouvalis' 'expertise' at 'winning'. That's a GD tragedy for civil communication.
 
I'd take this with a huge dose of salt. The last time I had a phone poll from the corner store liquor people like these, it was a ridiculous push poll, questions like "it's been proven that not allowing corner stores to sell liquor increases the chance of murder by 5000%. Do you think that corner stores should be banned from selling liquor, even though the murder rate in your neighborhood WILL increase by 5000%?" and other such questions.
 
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