Rob Ford's Toronto

[jje1000]

That said, I can talk about a few things.

One is that the Conservatives are buckling on their -- until recently -- strategy to run another candidate and may yet come out in support of Ford. Amazing how things have changed so dramatically from the imminent collapse of Rob Ford's office and the then apparently inevitable ostracizing of Ford, his brother and any of his inner group who remained.

Ford is going to run on the campaign mantra "Promise Made. Promise Kept" while Olivia Chow's campaign is being built on "One Toronto", a strategy that will mostly ignore Ford (leaving the negative campaigning to external groups) and sell pride in Toronto as one city, together. It'll pitch Olivia's positive vision for the city offering a refuge from the tired scandal after scandal. Adam Vaughan and even Shelly Carroll have both given guarantees that they will not run for Mayor.

As for Karen Stintz, she was (is?) trying hard to become the standard barer for the Conservatives and while they were looking outside of municipal politics for a candidate, she was increasingly becoming a viable choice for the Conservative machine to run. But Ford's luck has undeniably changed and he's once again looking like an attractive option. I mean, if he weathered a crack cocaine scandal and came out alive, then nothing can hurt this guy.

If he does have the right's support and campaign financing then I think he'll put up a good fight but that Olivia with the Laschinger team will very likely win the next election.

This is unfortunate that the right is continuing to hitch their fortunes on Ford.

Unfortunately, negative attack ads will be needed at some point from Olivia or a third party, if only to dispel the misinformation that the Ford team will likely put out. If they stay silent, well in today's world- silence = acceptance of whatever your opponent says. This is how Ford has been able to succeed so far- his misinformed and untruthful points have been unchallenged to this point.

 

[Peepers]

Now to comment on the video, I'm very confident from what I've heard and from who I've heard it from that it is in several hands, some of which could become slippery. Will the video come out soon? It's anybody's guess. Will it come out eventually? Absolutely. .

Any guesses as to whose hands the video is in?

This is my theory.

I believe that the video was in the possession of Hanad Mohamed - the security guard who was arrested in Fort McMurry in May.

If you look at the search warrant of Mohameds apartment the sole focus of police was getting their hands on a cell phone and in fact they seized four cell phones and an SD chip in the raid! (2 i-phones, 1 Blackberry, 1 Samsung)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/154820734/Search-warrant-for-Hanad-Mohamed

Why were these phones so important to police? They don't need to physically have the phones to trace which calls were made to and from the cell phones. They don't physically need the phones to know what cell towers they pinged off of. It seems the main focus is on any video or pictures to be found on the phones.

Hanad Mohamed is currently free on bail awaiting trial charged as an accessory in the murder of Anthony Smith (it is alleged that he drove the getaway car).

Assuming this goes to trial we will discover the contents of the phone seized. There is a possibility that Hanad Mohamed Lawyer already has a copy of any video's as part of the discovery process. Eventually his Lawyer must have this evidence prior to trial. It's just a question of how far along they are in the discovery process.

There is however a good possibility that this will not go to trial - that a plea bargain will be offered as was done with the Murderer who plead to a lesser charge of manslaughter. In this happens evidence will not be shown in trial. Even in this scenario however - once Hanad Mohamed walks free ALL of the items seized by police in the raid - i.e. the four cellphones and SD chip - will be returned to him. If the illusive crack-video is on any of these phones I would expect Mohamed will be shopping the video around.

If my above hunch is correct - if Hanad Mohamed is sentence to a term long enough to see him behind bars during the next election - Rob Ford should be safe.

 

[JWBF]

This is unfortunate that the right is continuing to hitch their fortunes on Ford.

Unfortunately, negative attack ads will be needed at some point from Olivia or a third party, if only to dispel the misinformation that the Ford team will likely put out. If they stay silent, well in today's world- silence = acceptance of whatever your opponent says. This is how Ford has been able to succeed so far- his misinformed and untruthful points have been unchallenged to this point.

I say we use an electronic "fly on the wall", get some juicy titbits on the Ford family, post them to You Tube. They will be taken down, however, they will resurface just like all salacious tidbits that make it to social media.

 

[jje1000]

I can't imagine how much political machinery could be going on behind the scenes in order to keep Ford in office.

IN TUESDAY’S SUN: A PICTURE IS WORTH 1,000 WORDS – AND ONE VIDEO
Warren Kinsella
September 23rd, 2013, 7:58 pm
It’s a bit of Kremlinology admittedly, and therefore an inexact science. But that photo of Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Toronto Mayor Rob Ford? It’s a shocker.

To some of us, it was astonishing. Not because they have differing ideologies, of course. Both men are hardcore Conservatives. Not because there is a personal animus between the pair. Harper has previously attended Ford family barbecues to sing the mayor’s praises — and the mayor, for his part, hero-worships Harper.

Not because Harper was in Toronto to pledge dollars for Ford’s much-trumpeted subway extension to East Toronto. Harper has long enabled Ford’s subway fixation.

Not because Ford looks — as always — like a man out of place and time, flushed and staring off into space while Harper spoke.

No, the Harper-Ford photo was surprising because it happened at all.

Toronto’s mayor, as the entire planet knows by now, has been in a spot of trouble for the past few months. A Toronto newspaper and a U.S. website alleged, as fact, that they had seen a video of Ford smoking crack cocaine.

Lots of things happened after that shocker, but one thing — tellingly — didn’t happen: Ford suing the news organizations in question.

Falsely alleging a crime is the most serious form of libel. But Ford didn’t sue.

If he’d done so and won, he’d capture one of the biggest libel judgments in Canadian history. But he didn’t.

That fact, alone among many facts in the sad Rob Ford saga, said plenty.

It suggested the allegations about a crack video would remain, dogging Ford at every turn. Politicians — even fellow Conservatives — therefore did all they could to avoid being photographed with Ford.

That all ended with the Harper-Ford get-together.

There is no way on God’s green earth — none — the RCMP, and/or the Canadian law enforcement/intelligence community, would have let Harper get that close to Ford if the latter was facing an imminent criminal charge, or proof of involvement in a serious crime.

The RCMP’s Protective Policing Service is sworn to protect the prime minister in every way.

Under Harper, the Prime Minister Protection Detail has ballooned in size. New weapons, big armoured-plated vehicles and many more gun-toting Mounties are a presidential-style hallmark of the Harper era.

Most significantly, however, its mandate has remained protecting the prime minister “at all times,†in public and private. And, “the RCMP continuously assesses the security requirements, and as a matter of practice makes recommendations to the prime minister with respect to the effective delivery of security measures.â€

The RCMP aren’t perfect. They have, in the past, let Harper get too close to some bad apples — most notoriously accused fraudster Arthur Porter and guilty-pleading money launderer, Nathan Jacobson.

But, since the debacle surrounding an assassination attempt on Jean Chretien in 1995, they have done a pretty good job.

So why would the Mounties allow Stephen Harper anywhere near Rob Ford?

Because they have formed the opinion that, lawsuits or not, the infamous crack video is — as its owner later told that same Toronto newspaper and U.S. website — “gone.â€

Pictures say more than words. The Harper-Ford picture says plenty.

Namely, the video is gone, baby, gone.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/09/i...e-is-worth-1000-words-and-one-video/#comments

 

[animatronic]

I can't imagine how much political machinery could be going on behind the scenes in order to keep Ford in office.



http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/09/i...e-is-worth-1000-words-and-one-video/#comments

Not sure why Kinsella gets a free pass for speculation on this board. Claiming that the PM's personal protective detail wouldn't let him near Ford is just silly. The PMO would have calculated the political risk/reward of Harper hanging out with a crackhead, but there's no way that Ford could be considered a security risk. That whole Kinsella post reads like an unfuckwithable rant.

 

[adma]

Memo to all: don't overrate the "Scarborough subway" issue, whether from a pro- or anti-Ford perspective. It may seem "central" from an undigested immediate-present perspective--but the vote is in November 2014, not November 2013.

I've been reading so much "alas, we've lost" coming from, unfortunately, the kinds of suspects/perspective that would've said the same after Mel defeated Hall, Eggs defeated Sewell, Rowlands defeated Layton, etc etc etc. Memo: by being who you are, dear usual suspects, you're fueling the Ford juggernaut, whiners. Get a *real*, solid, "grand coalition" going, much like Miller did, something that'll get you both respect and a critical voting mass in the 'burbs. And remember: Ford's not Mel, Eggs, Rowlands. He's worse. So stop projecting your photocopied past whines. Do different.

And to wear my ever-so-familiar heritage hat, those who say "alas, we lost" are akin to heritage buffs who blanket-condemn a la Prince Charles 60s/70s Modernism, Brutalism, et al. Be a little discerningly magnanimous in your scope, huh...

 

[jje1000]

Not sure why Kinsella gets a free pass for speculation on this board. Claiming that the PM's personal protective detail wouldn't let him near Ford is just silly. The PMO would have calculated the political risk/reward of Harper hanging out with a crackhead, but there's no way that Ford could be considered a security risk. That whole Kinsella post reads like an unfuckwithable rant.

Not everything he says is completely accurate, but the main thrust of the arguments in favour of the video's existence is of Ford's flaccid response- the most important note is that Ford has not sued the Star or Globe for libel.

 

[adma]

Not sure why Kinsella gets a free pass for speculation on this board. Claiming that the PM's personal protective detail wouldn't let him near Ford is just silly. The PMO would have calculated the political risk/reward of Harper hanging out with a crackhead, but there's no way that Ford could be considered a security risk. That whole Kinsella post reads like an unfuckwithable rant.

And beyond that: sorry Godwin, but this is Ford, not Hitler.

Right now, innocent until proven guilty. And it's about federal-municipal relations in a more general sense--the reason why Ford's been "enabled" by are-they-daft? "allies", municipally, federally, sorta-provincially (w/no 416 MPPs until Holyday, it's hard), is that they want things operating properly. And if they can do so by working around and shoring up the ground around Ford, fine. Remember the logic here: Ford might be inept, but anarchy is worse. Insofar as the Ford regime is "functional", it's because of the generic-right-of-centre team behind him, not because of him himself, however much he loves to take credit.

Subways, subways, subways--yeah, the city's more like a subway train than a bus. And as many of us know in practice, it's easier to "deal with" a nuisance passenger, etc on a bus--just stop and eject. But it's a lot more "involved" to stop a subway train, because you wind up monkey-wrenching a whole network's operation; the reason why a lot of subway riders would rather grin and bear it is because pressing the alarm and triggering the whole attention-subway-passengers chain reaction is more trouble than it's worth...

 

[Peepers]

Not sure why Kinsella gets a free pass for speculation on this board. Claiming that the PM's personal protective detail wouldn't let him near Ford is just silly. The PMO would have calculated the political risk/reward of Harper hanging out with a crackhead, but there's no way that Ford could be considered a security risk. That whole Kinsella post reads like an unfuckwithable rant.

Warren Kinsella is full of sh*t. He is telling us now that the video is "gone baby gone" but not long ago on his blog he wrote this:

http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/08/the-rob-ford-crack-video-the-truth/

Here’s what I know:

• Siad possessed the video.
• The police got the video when they arrested him, using a search warrant.
• The Crown office was then given the video.
• The Crown disclosed the video to lawyer Brown. He has it.

Will the video come out anytime soon? I don’t know.

But what I do know is this: the video is in the hands of many people, now. And it has been seen by many more. And it shows Rob Ford smoking what appears to be crack cocaine.

It is real.

So how does a video that is "in the hands of many people" just disappear?

Kinsella is in the disinformation business. This picture sums up best what he does

warrenkinsella.com

 

[One Nut Kruk]

Warren Kinsella looks like a cross between Bill Murray and Colin Mochrie.

 

[CowboyLogic]

I saw it on a cellphone -- the concept campaign ad, not that video. It showed footage of Torontonians from all cultures in different landmark locations saying "One Toronto" in different languages. This was meant to allow for any candidate to be plugged in but imagine that now that Olivia is indeed running, they'll be mixing in footage of her as well. Sprinkle in some local celebrities (most of which can't wait to get rid of Ford) and you've got a powerful ad instilling civic pride. Even though it was just a concept, I didn't find it touristy or tacky in any way. It felt like a movement and no doubt social media is going to play a big part in rolling the snowball.

If this is true, then I can't wait.

The strength of Ford is that he cut straight through the bullshit, political jargon and "politics". He had a very simple message - "Respect for Taxpayers" - and he had several key initiatives that he ran on (Vehicle Registration Tax, Land Transfer Tax, subways, etc). Quite honestly, I'm not quite sure what Smitherman, Rossi or Thomson ran on. There campaigns were all over the place, with gimmicky stunts and changes in their position happening constantly (I would exclude Pantalone - it was just the wrong time for him). Ford's campaign was completely consistent from beginning to end and it resonated with the average voter.

Regardless of what you think of the man, Ford's campaign resonated and its largely because he eschewed wishy-washy PR-centric gimmicky politics. Everybody knew what Ford was running for and what he wanted to do in office.

What the hell is "One Toronto"? What does that even mean? I don't think the average voter cares about "One Toronto" - they care about whether their taxes are going up.

I do not think that the next election is going to be won on a gimmicky, manufactured-for-social-media campaign. If that is what Chow is going forward with, then I don't think she understands who she's going up against.

 

[GenerationW]

Quite honestly, I'm not quite sure what Smitherman, Rossi or Thomson ran on..

Thomson ran on subways funded by transit taxes, Rossi ran on a giant tunneled highway into downtown, and Smitherman ran on thinking he was going to win pretty handily.

 

[nfitz]

Rob Ford just got the transit he promised.

No he didn't. He promised the extension of the Danforth line, but most of what he promised was the 2 extensions of the Sheppard line. He also promised that it would be operating in 2015.

He then backed off the Danforth line, promised that the Eglinton line would be underground and continue to Scarborough Centre, and continued to promise the 2-extensions of the Sheppard line.

I see little evidence that he's coming anywhere close to what he promised.

Dude is SO getting re-elected. I'm going to watch this thread explode when he does.

Surely the credit here goes to Stintz ... Ford's major achievement is that he's kept his cocaine addiction under enough control for the last few weeks, that he hasn't managed to completely blow the subway deal.

Though his refusal yesterday to take questions about the subway extension was rather odd ...

 

[adma]

What the hell is "One Toronto"? What does that even mean? I don't think the average voter cares about "One Toronto" - they care about whether their taxes are going up.

I do not think that the next election is going to be won on a gimmicky, manufactured-for-social-media campaign. If that is what Chow is going forward with, then I don't think she understands who she's going up against.

Well, if that's the case, one thing we must keep in mind as a worst-case foretelling: the failure of the Adrian Dix NDP campaign. (Then again, Christy Clark isn't on as low a level as Rob Ford, even if she had Kouvalis working for her.)

 

[TheTigerMaster]

What the hell is "One Toronto"? What does that even mean? I don't think the average voter cares about "One Toronto" - they care about whether their taxes are going up.

Believe it or not Torntonians overwhelmingly favour tax increases to build infrastructure. Low taxes is a priority for a small minority.