So let's get more specific, malvern2 -- given everything you know, what do you think the actual probability is that there is a video of Ford appearing to smoke drugs? Give us a number -- 5% chance there's a video? 10%? What's your best guess?
The reason I think this is a useful exercise is that it gets away from dug-in certainty on either side and forces us all to confront how our beliefs change with the alleged evidence. As I said earlier, personally, given the evidence from police wiretaps (which occurred before the story broke in the press), the eyewitness accounts of two separate groups of journalists, the behaviour of Ford and his staff, Ford's proven association with drug dealers (including his own brother), Ford's history of substance abuse (including an arrest for marijuana possession and a DUI), and the comments by the police, I'd put the likelihood that the video exists at 95%. That is, I'm not 100% certain, but then again, I'm not 100% certain about anything.
So how about you? Given everything that you know, give us a number.
Did a video exist? 100%. Does a video still exist? About 90%.
1) Ford told his staffers exactly where the video was located. That fact is pretty hard to ignore.
2) Numerous staffers have resigned, including his Chief of Staff. They wouldn't do that just for the hell of it.
3) The Police Chief skirted around the question about whether the raids had any link to Rob Ford. Do you not think that if the raids had nothing to do with Ford, that the Chief would have been more than happy to proclaim "these raids had no link whatsoever to Mayor Ford". That would have taken this whole video sideshow off his shoulders. But no, he couldn't do that, because he knows that isn't the case.
4) One of the men in a photo with Mayor Ford, taken outside a home that has numerous links to the drug trade, was murdered.
5) Numerous sources have spoken to the Globe and Mail (hardly a 'lefty' paper) and have independently consistent accounts that Doug Ford had been involved in the drug trade in the past.
6) At no time, during any of his press conferences or dealings with the media, has Rob Ford ever uttered the words "I have never smoked crack". He has given legalese responses that seem to say something similar on the surface, but when you examine them from a legal perspective, are absolutely meaningless. (ex: "I do not smoke crack". Yeah, well I haven't had a beer since yesterday, so I can legally claim that as of today "I don't drink alcohol". Technically true, but in the grand scheme of things, completely meaningless.)
All of these facts combined paints a pretty clear picture, and one that's easy to see, unless you choose to bury your head in the sand.
