Population of Toronto (Including Census Counts)

[Transportfan]

It's not that crazy to me. I don't think Mississauga built that much new housing? Paired with declining household sizes - it's possible.

Yup. Mississauga is close to fully built out and isn't the young families living in new subdivisions suburb it once was. Still, I didn't expect it to decline in population this soon, if those numbers are accurate.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Yup. Mississauga is close to fully built out and isn't the young families living in new subdivisions suburb it once was. Still, I didn't expect it to decline in population this soon, if those numbers are accurate.

There still is room... if they filled in the vast sprawling space between buildings, the empty unused parking lots, and allowed duplexes or triplexes instead of bungalows. Even Toronto's own Yorkdale Mall's parking lots could be filled in with apartment buildings.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487146068785651714

 

[TOareaFan]

Does anyone believe that Mississauga's population actually decreased?

I have a theory.

Mississauga may be in a pause before launching higher.....leading up to 2016 they essentially ran out of land for ground based housing (the traditional growth for all burbs).....so their future growth had to be up....but those types of new housing take years to build after a very long planning/approval cycle.....so when kids that grew up in Sauga form their own households they have to move out (Milton, Brampton, etc) or just displace some other family that ends up with someone moving out.

The net effect is zero real growth....and that is essentially what you have.

I, observed this in 2016 and thought it would have corrected by now but apparently not....so it could be completely wrong.

Seeing a lot of talk on twitter that this means Brampton will surpass Mississauga in pop soon...i doubt it because the same issue will face Brampton in the not too distant future.....and they are a bit behind Mississauga in getting height (although it is coming).

 

[Towered]

Here's the thing.

If you look at what Stats Can is saying above, its saying this is an under count, they know it, and they'll correct it next September.

If you take the national under count, on its face, its about 1.2M.

If you simply pro-rate that difference based on where numerical growth is being recorded, I think you see Toronto up by over 200,000

Which would put us right at 3 million - sounds about right.

 

[marcus_a_j]

I have a theory.

Mississauga may be in a pause before launching higher.....leading up to 2016 they essentially ran out of land for ground based housing (the traditional growth for all burbs).....so their future growth had to be up....but those types of new housing take years to build after a very long planning/approval cycle.....so when kids that grew up in Sauga form their own households they have to move out (Milton, Brampton, etc) or just displace some other family that ends up with someone moving out.

The net effect is zero real growth....and that is essentially what you have.

I, observed this in 2016 and thought it would have corrected by now but apparently not....so it could be completely wrong.

Seeing a lot of talk on twitter that this means Brampton will surpass Mississauga in pop soon...i doubt it because the same issue will face Brampton in the not too distant future.....and they are a bit behind Mississauga in getting height (although it is coming).

Greenfield development may have been maxed out but there's been plenty of infill and high-density development in the City. And as @Northern Light has mentioned there seems to be an undercount which will be adjusted later. Smaller households with children moving out is one possibility - but there has also been an increase in young adults living with their parents longer due to the increase in housing costs.

 

[TOareaFan]

Greenfield development may have been maxed out but there's been plenty of infill and high-density development in the City. And as @Northern Light has mentioned there seems to be an undercount which will be adjusted later. Smaller households with children moving out is one possibility - but there has also been an increase in young adults living with their parents longer due to the increase in housing costs.

I recall similar skepticism und the 2016 number as it was essentially flat.....can't specifically say people called it an "undercount" but people did doubt the number.

 

[Memph]

Toronto CMA
7.1% increase in dwellings
5.9% increase in occupied dwellings
4.6% increase in population

Rest of Ontario
5.1% increase in dwellings
6.4% increase in occupied dwellings
6.7% increase in population

So in Toronto (CMA), household sizes decreased, and occupancy rates decreased, while in the rest of Ontario, household sizes increased, and occupancy rates increased.

 

[Memph]

Change in dwellings, occupied dwellings and population from 2016 - 2021.

In most Ontario CMAs/UAs the household sizes and occupancy rates increased, but in Toronto it was the opposite.

 

[Memph]

I think it has to; for the simple reason that its national.

Meaning the census isn't really showing a shift of people from Toronto, as much as its showing a 1.2M missing nationally.

We did not have 1.2M foreign students in Canada or anything close.

People moving to Wasaga, or Halifax should have been counted in those places and shown up in the national numbers.

***

I'm sure there was a drop in foreign students, but again, that's only 50,000 max in the GTA, and since they didn't all disappear, its more likely 25000 or so who vanished temporarily.

However, when Stats. Can goes into the field, likely towards fall to amass data for a correction, those students will be back, I'd assume, with a return to in-person learning.

FTR the census did record significantly higher population growth than in the previous census period in cottage country and the Maritimes. Many rural townships in cottage country saw their population increase by 15-30% whereas in the previous census periods the population was essentially flat.

The most extreme example would be the Georgia Bay township called "The Archipelago"

Its population...
2006: 576
2011: 566
2016: 531
2021: 979

So the population increased by 84.4%, compared to an increase of only 6.3% for the number of housing units. The only way to explain that is a lot of people turned their cottage into their primary dwelling - but presumably a lot of them still held on to their city homes, which were therefore classified as unoccupied by permanent residents.

Perhaps there was an undercount nationwide, but I suspect that even with the adjustment, Toronto's growth will be lower than expected, and lackluster compared to previous years when it was growing faster than most of the rest of Ontario.

 

[Northern Light]

FTR the census did record significantly higher population growth than in the previous census period in cottage country and the Maritimes. Many rural townships in cottage country saw their population increase by 15-30% whereas in the previous census periods the population was essentially flat.

The most extreme example would be the Georgia Bay township called "The Archipelago"

Its population...
2006: 576
2011: 566
2016: 531
2021: 979

So the population increased by 84.4%, compared to an increase of only 6.3% for the number of housing units. The only way to explain that is a lot of people turned their cottage into their primary dwelling - but presumably a lot of them still held on to their city homes, which were therefore classified as unoccupied by permanent residents.

Perhaps there was an undercount nationwide, but I suspect that even with the adjustment, Toronto's growth will be lower than expected, and lackluster compared to previous years when it was growing faster than most of the rest of Ontario.

I certainly feel confident that there were not 200,000+ housing starts up by Georgian Bay in the last 5 years....... (I may go look up the actual numbers now)......LOL

 

[Transportfan]

I certainly feel confident that there were not 200,000+ housing starts up by Georgian Bay in the last 5 years....... (I may go look up the actual numbers now)......LOL

There's still a ton going on in Wasaga Beach though. This is what was going on last September at the southern end far from the beach:

...and looking the other way:

 

[adma]

Some of these increases might also be due to "spot conditions", i.e. a single development in The Archipelago (one that'd a pinprick in a GTA scheme of things) could be enough to skew things upward.

And also, when it comes to something like NYCC, one has to remember: this is only since 2016. Sure, we have a "new" impression of the place; but a lot of those census tracts had either been built out by 2016 or have had no new housing stock added in the interim. That is, time flies. And yes, Mississauga might look weird; but there, too, the "intensification" opportunities have been limited, mainly because the urge to intensify has been centralized and Mississauga's as yet too unfashionably peripheral. (Doesn't mean that decline at large hasn't meant spot increases around places like MCC, of course.)

 

[W. K. Lis]

Wonder if the counts include the "homeless"?

 

[ShonTron]

I created a map of all 338 federal ridings that shows how they compare with federal and provincial population averages.

There are five ridings – four in Alberta, as well as Brampton West – that have larger populations than PEI, which has four ridings.

Meanwhile, the use of federal ridings based on 2011 census counts has created huge disparities in ward populations.

Wards and ridings: not quite representation by population

With the release of the 2021 Census population data, the disparities within federal ridings and City of Toronto wards become quite stark

seanmarshall.ca

 

[Memph]

Some of these increases might also be due to "spot conditions", i.e. a single development in The Archipelago (one that'd a pinprick in a GTA scheme of things) could be enough to skew things upward.

And also, when it comes to something like NYCC, one has to remember: this is only since 2016. Sure, we have a "new" impression of the place; but a lot of those census tracts had either been built out by 2016 or have had no new housing stock added in the interim. That is, time flies. And yes, Mississauga might look weird; but there, too, the "intensification" opportunities have been limited, mainly because the urge to intensify has been centralized and Mississauga's as yet too unfashionably peripheral. (Doesn't mean that decline at large hasn't meant spot increases around places like MCC, of course.)

As I said though, 6% increasing in housing units, 84% increase in population. Most of cottage country has seem population growth massively outpace housing unit growth, especially in the rural parts (small towns like Huntsville, Parry Sound, Bracebridge were more "normal"). That to me strongly suggests people turning their pre-existing secondary residences into primary residences, at least for the duration of the pandemic/work-from-home. I don't think this explains everything - it may only account for about 20,000 people, but it was definitely one phenomenon captured by the census.

BTW "Northdale" in Waterloo saw its population growth significantly outpace the increase in dwellings, so the loss of international students doesn't seem to have "hurt" it. Perhaps any units vacated by them were filled by locals who were more likely to appear on the census as part of the official/permanent population?

KW Census Tract 0106.01 (Northdale)
Population: 3302 --> 8395 (+154%)
Households: 1462 --> 4020 (+175%)
Dwellings: 3768 --> 6504 (+73%)