Population of Toronto (Including Census Counts)

[allengeorge]

@Northern Light https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/hp/estima

Hat tip to the questioner and the response from Statcan here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491493525615218695

 

[Memph]

Twenty fastest growing CMAs/UAs in Ontario and percentage point change compared to 2011-2016.

Wasaga Beach: 20.3% (+2.4)
Tilsonburg: 17.3% (+13.6)
Collingwood: 13.8% (+0.5)
Woodstock: 13.6% (+5.3)
Centre Wellington: 10.3% (+4.7)

London: 10.0% (+5.9)
Kitchener-Waterloo: 9.9% (+4.4)
Oshawa: 9.3% (+2.7)
Guelph: 9.0% (+1.3)
Essa: 9.0% (-4.9)

Ottawa: 8.5% (+3.0)
Barrie: 8.0% (+2.6)
Midland: 8.0% (+6.2)
Belleville: 7.5% (+5.7)
Brantford: 7.4% (+8.4)

Ingersoll: 7.3% (+2.3)
Orillia: 7.2% (+5.3)
Kingston: 7.1% (+6.1)
St. Catharines-Niagara: 6.8% (+3.3)
Windsor: 6.0% (+3.4)

Major increases in growth rates for Waterloo Region and London, as well as complete turn arounds for Kingston, Brantford and Belleville (from stagnant to rapid growth).

Most of the small cities increased in growth substantially too (check out Tillsonburg).

The Toronto CMA ranked only 29th out of 43 in Ontario.

 

[Memph]

 

[WislaHD]

I suspect if counted the number of new registered condominiums alone in Toronto since 2016, it would outnumber the overall population growth in that time, based on the numbers StatsCan has provided us.

That to me, seems very suspect. That isn't even considering new rental stock, freehold towns, and other ways population can grow.

It can't all be empty speculator-investor condos. Condo rental turnover during covid was high. Speculator owners were largely lowering rents during covid, not keeping units vacant.

And of course, Mississauga reducing in population is kind of a massive wtf?

 

[Memph]

At a glance, it looks like there's been a decrease in housing units in many areas without new construction (suggesting a reduction of accessory dwellings like basement apartments?), as well as increasing vacancy rates and decreasing household sizes.

 

[Northern Light]

@Northern Light https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/hp/estima

Hat tip to the questioner and the response from Statcan here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491493525615218695

Very good catch, let me bring forward some of what Stats Can says on their page:

First this:

"The 2021 Census counted 36,991,981 people in Canada during the national enumeration with reference date May 11, 2021. This count is lower than the preliminary postcensal population estimate of 38,201,103 people calculated for the same reference date. The difference between the two figures is not unexpected and is similar to that which was experienced for previous censuses. This note outlines why there are differences between census counts and population estimates."

Bolding is my emphasis.

My comment: It should be unexpected; if you believe you consistently produce an incorrect number; and it is consistently an undercount, and you later apply some formula to up that number retroactively, you're doing something wrong!
Some margin of error is to be expected; but if it consistently varies in the same direction, it is indicative of a consistent mistake; one that can and should be corrected.

Commentary:

If the undercount is consistent across multiple census' Then you don't need to undertake a detailed study, you apply the corrective formula from last time; and the time before, and since it should be embedded in your system already, it should be available simultaneously to the original census data.

Further, how in the hell did it take 8 months to release the top-level data of a census that was completed electronically?

And how it could possibly take another 19 months to issue corrected data?

 

[Memph]

Toronto CMA
7.1% increase in dwellings
5.9% increase in occupied dwellings
4.6% increase in population

 

[Jonny5]

The whole Etobicoke-Humber Waterfront area adding only ~400 people in those five years seems very low. I don't know how one of those tracts even has negative population growth.

 

[Memph]

The whole Etobicoke-Humber Waterfront area adding only ~400 people in those five years seems very low. I don't know how one of those tracts even has negative population growth.

??

It added quite a bit more than 400 according the the 2021 census. Etobicoke south of the Gardiner gained 8769 people. The area east of Park Lawn alone grew by 3896 people.

 

[allengeorge]

Thinking about the population numbers in Toronto, I think we’re seeing a confluence of factors here:

1. Lower number of international students
2. Lower number of students in UofT, Ryerson, York, etc
3. Dramatically fewer hospitality workers (why stay in Toronto if it’s locked-down?)
4. Loss of secondary suites (I swear I saw a report recently that said that while Brampton had dramatically increased the number of secondary suites it had vs. a loss in Toronto)
5. Fewer office workers (if you can work remotely, no need to rent space in the city for an easier commute)
6. Continued outmigration as families space out of their current living conditions

I could easily imagine each of these factors contributing a few 10s of thousands and all adding up to the 200k drop.

 

[Northern Light]

Thinking about the population numbers in Toronto, I think we’re seeing a confluence of factors here:

1. Lower number of international students
2. Lower number of students in UofT, Ryerson, York, etc
3. Dramatically fewer hospitality workers (why stay in Toronto if it’s locked-down?)
4. Loss of secondary suites (I swear I saw a report recently that said that while Brampton had dramatically increased the number of secondary suites it had vs. a loss in Toronto)
5. Fewer office workers (if you can work remotely, no need to rent space in the city for an easier commute)
6. Continued outmigration as families space out of their current living conditions

I could easily imagine each of these factors contributing a few 10s of thousands and all adding up to the 200k drop.

Here's the thing.

If you look at what Stats Can is saying above, its saying this is an under count, they know it, and they'll correct it next September.

If you take the national under count, on its face, its about 1.2M.

If you simply pro-rate that difference based on where numerical growth is being recorded, I think you see Toronto up by over 200,000

 

[allengeorge]

If you simply pro-rate that difference based on where numerical growth is being recorded, I think you see Toronto up by over 200,000

One of my questions is whether the undercount (based on previous years) will actually apply this year given the unprecedented confluence of events.

 

[Northern Light]

One of my questions is whether the undercount (based on previous years) will actually apply this year given the unprecedented confluence of events.

I think it has to; for the simple reason that its national.

Meaning the census isn't really showing a shift of people from Toronto, as much as its showing a 1.2M missing nationally.

We did not have 1.2M foreign students in Canada or anything close.

People moving to Wasaga, or Halifax should have been counted in those places and shown up in the national numbers.

***

I'm sure there was a drop in foreign students, but again, that's only 50,000 max in the GTA, and since they didn't all disappear, its more likely 25000 or so who vanished temporarily.

However, when Stats. Can goes into the field, likely towards fall to amass data for a correction, those students will be back, I'd assume, with a return to in-person learning.

 

[W. K. Lis]

With the price of fuel expected to go way up, expect more families to move to areas where there is more frequent rapid transit and closer to shopping. Having to live a city where one MUST use a car to get milk or batteries, is not a good incentive.

From link.

"$1.75 or $1.80 for regular gasoline in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) would not be extraordinary," said Dan McTeague, the president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, who also runs the website Gaswizard.ca.

 

[Transportfan]

What I'm saying is that municipal boundaries are arbitrary - some cities spill over their political boundaries while others don't. The City of Vancouver for example is just the core of its urban area. Calgary's municipality is basically the entire urban area, and most of the City of Hamilton is farmland. Comparing the density of the three using municipal boundaries doesn't give any useful information.

And even Vancouver is contained wholly within one regional district: Toronto doesn't just spill over it's political boundaries, it spills over several upper tier regions (although Toronto proper is no longer contained in an upper-tier municipality, as we all know).