I didn't see any data showing how aviation carbon emissions are on a trajectory to beat road transportation to net-zero carbon emission in your article. Even SAF fuel marketing says that it can reduce the carbon emissions by up to 80% (which is highly optimistic) but in no way can they meet 100% because plants don't magically grow in the quantities required and magically turn into jet fuel waiting to be loaded on to aircraft. The title of your article compares aviation against road travel, but the title is not supported by the content... there isn't a single line talking about the advancements being made in road travel!! I know there are laws in various jurisdictions to force the conversion of road transportation to electric by dates between 2035 and 2050; what laws exist in the aviation market that enforce a move SAF fuels by 2050? I can see all a lot of manufacturers of electric road vehicles making progress right now, I see progress on the power grid... what meaningful progress has been made with SAF fuels that show it is on a faster trajectory that road transportation? With cars going electric what are the assumed sources of energy for cars that would support this argument? If SAF fuels are affordable and somehow magically have net zero emissions when you burn them, then why wouldn't power plants and any remaining road vehicles be using them? You would need to have evidence that a SAF fuel supply chain will exist in 2040 that can replace all the aviation fuel used today, and that airlines will use it (i.e. it will be available and cost effective)... is that in the ICAO and NACC info? You would need evidence that the burning of the fuel during flight, the refinement process to create the fuel, the carbon released to create fertilizer for this crop, and the land cleared to make this crop would release less carbon than the growing of plants used to create the fuel would capture from the atmosphere. There is no where near enough evidence to support your statement.
Some good questions:
The advantages of air transportation over road is stark on both a regulatory and a technology level.
Air travel is governed by a high regulated combination of federal authorities from each country working together at an international level through ICAO. Long term this enables enforcement of strict operating guidelines and emissions targets. For instance while the CORSIA offset program is voluntary today it become mandatory in 2028.
The SAF ramp up target is ambitious but doable and has long term financial benefits as well as emissions ones. This includes secure locally produced fuel supplies from waste products, and the fact that SAF is just a better fuel with a better energy density per pound.
On the technology front, while electric cars have made great strides, and some states and even nations will enforce that all new road vehicles will need to be electric, this is still a minority of vehicles worldwide. There is no international authority enforcing or providing incentives to move completely to electric. I am a long term EV owner ( one of the original Chevy volts in Canada) and the lack of progress has been discouraging, but at least there is progress.
Electric and hybrid electric Aviation is on its way, and could dominate new aircraft delivery’s by 2040, but Aviations real road to carbon neutrality is the not so secret ability of existing jets engines to burn almost anything.
While today’s gasoline powered piston engine cars and trucks require a highly refined fuel supply, (automotive biofuels eat into food production feed stock such as corn ethanol), SAF can be made from everything from sewage to wood waste.
While diesel cars and trucks have less stringent tolerances, you still have the problem that road transportation consumes 10 times the fuel that aviation does. Also gasoline powered cars and trucks are the dominate type in production today with no end in sight. These legacy gasoline powered vehicles would require a huge agricultural land foot print to support. Given that people like to eat, and that legacy gasoline cars and trucks are still being produced around the world with no way to mandate an end to production, there is no point in the future where road transportation can achieve net carbon zero.
In contrast the ICAO road map for net carbon zero by 2050 is backed by the teeth of an international United Nations agency and federal aviation regulators around the world. While shifting a trillion dollar aviation industry to net carbon zero will be a historic feat, it is doable. Not so much for road transportation.
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