Well considering that air craft types generally are in production for about 20 years (the 737 and 747 are exceptions on the long lived side, and the 380 is the exception on the short lived side), and continue to fly for decades after production has ended. Let's take a look at the current passenger air frame market shall we? From Airbus we have the A220 launched in 2016 expected EOP (End Of Production) 2036, the A31x/32x revamped in 2016 with NEO (new engine option) expected EOP 2036, the A330 revamped in 2018 with NEO expected EOP 2039, the A350 launched in 2015 expected EOP 2035. As far as I know Airbus has no plans to introduce any new airliners over the next 10 years. Over at Boeing we have the 737Max revamped from the 737NG's in 2017 expected EOP 2032 (this is a very old design it may not last 20 years), the 787 launched in 2011 expected EOP 2031, the 777X planned for a 2023 launch expected EOP 2043, the 747 (still in limited production) expected EOP 2032, rumored to be in planning stages is the NMA which would be launched sometime in the late 2020's. Dark horses in this race are Comac with the C919/C929 expected to launch in the late 2020's, Embraer's E2 aircraft launched in 2013 expected EOP 2033, and Mitsubishi's MRJ planes whose development is currently on hold.
So you see the skies of 2029 may look very similar to the skies we see today (pre covid)
- are electronic jet engines in development? Yes, but they are so so much in the early development stage that one cannot expect to see an abundance of E-Jets in the skies in under 9 years.
- are there plans for new aircraft types and designs? Sure the Airbus beluga flying wing is mentioned many times as possible but nothing is announced as yet. Plans to reintroduce supersonic flight to civil aviation are there, but again, not so far developed that they would have an impact in 2029
- Will planes get quieter, more fuel efficient, longer range, etc, etc, etc. Of course.
None of this changes the fact that there is zero market for a new national airline that would operate out of Pickering.
Having a beer and reading your post after doing two flights today And I think I see the block.
you just referenced midsize to large jet aircraft that are not commonly used on any of the short haul routes expected to be the target of the first generation of electric aircraft.
Humm... it looks like you have put some effort into your answer so I wonder If a different approach can help. So I will shift gears a bit and follow your lead.
Lets have some fun and travel forward into time to the year 2029.
You are the CEO of Pascan airlines, a mostly Quebec based short haul and specialty passenger airline. You are half way through replacing your old 16 seat BAE-Jetstream 32, and some of your Saab 340 fleet with a new all electric prop aircraft. Called the ES-19, your predecessor placed the first ordered for your new fleet in 2020 from Swedish aircraft builder Heart Aerospace. With the opening of a new airport in Pickering just east of Toronto you see an opportunity to go big and break into the most lucrative market in Canada.
The newly opened airport in Pickering Ontario has just what you need. After years of being squeezed out by Pearsons high cost and gold plated service fees small airlines once more have cost effective access to the Toronto marketplace. When if first opens, Pickering will be a basic utility airport with room to build new infrastructure with low cost predictable fees. Compared to Pearson airports unneeded gate infrastructure and gold plated fees aimed at large long haul aircraft, Pickering is a godsend. The new airport is already wired to meet the needs of electric aircraft charging as well as fuel storage for SAF ( Sustainable Aviation Fuel) for your aging gas burning PC-12s and Saab 340s not yet replaced with new all electric and hybrid electric technology.
A stroke of foresight has enabled your airline to be one of the first to roll out an all electric short haul passenger service using a new fleet of all electric ES-19 aircraft. No doubt It helped that part of Hearts engineering team is Canadian. Engineers that cut their teeth on the bombardier C-Series project, now the famous Airbus A220.
In an Avro-Aero like moment many working on aviation R&D projects in Canada where forced to seek employment elsewhere when the Canadian Federal government began cancelling support for aviation R&D 2017. thus the lack of a Canadian electro prop competitor.
What “specialty passenger services” out of Pickering would you fly with you new Electro prop?
Anything at 400 km is only an hour away, so you look over a list of possibilities that have been served successfully by 19 seat regional airlines flying out of Pearson before fees started to skyrocket in 2012.
Here is a sampling of some of the candidates routes within 400 km for a high frequency low cost short haul airline.
Canadian routes linking the Eastern Toronto area to other cities:
Pickering to Kingston
Pickering to Windsor
Pickering to london
Pickering to Gateau
Pickering to Sudbury
Sample USA routes if you want to go international:
Pickering to Buffalo
Pickering to Cleveland
Pickering to Detroit
Pickering to Pittsburgh
In addition you look at several specialty passengers serviced that nearby large employers have ask you to consider. One example is:
Pickering to Kindcardine
( in support of the 5000 workers refurbishing the Bruce Nuclear plant now the largest nuclear plant in the world)
The reliability and low maintenance costs of the new all electric aircraft not only reduces your costs, it provides a high up time. Your plan is to service these routes with several dozen aircraft, doing 2-3 round trips a day on average for 300 days a year, 600-900 trips, 1200-1800 flight hours per aircraft per year. While less than the typical 3000 flight hours a large new commercial passenger jet flys a year, it is appropriate for short haul electric aviation that requires charge times between flights. Four one hour segments a day plus charge times between flights Is a good start.
Let’s have a closer look at just one of these routes and a “specialty market” it will serve, university students. Are they traveling to Toronto from a smaller cities such as Sudbury to attend the University of Toronto? Or perhaps students traveling from Toronto to attend Queens University in Kingston? A return trip once a month for some home cooking is now cost effective. The marketing is clean and simple:
Save the Planet and time by flying electric out of Pickering!
Each route is only an hour and can have a common ticket price at $150 dollars one way ($300 round trip) about a half to a third of the old ticket cost to most of these cities from Pearson before Jazz cancelled the routes.
Your balance sheet looks golden, a great gross margin in an industry that often makes only a few dollars per passenger.
Unlike the Jet fuel guzzling old twin engine JetStream, the “fuel” cost for the ES 19 is a mere quarter the cost including a reserve to replace the battery. Similarly the rest of your maintenance reserve will be half that an hour of the older aircraft.
The only cost increase is in the capital costs of the new aircraft itself.
The original deal signed by Pascan in 2020 was reportedly at a price of $10 million Canadian per plane included parts and warranty. working out to a capital cost of $600 an flight hour over an amortization of 1200 hours a year, for 20 years.
But the real selling point to your passengers is the customer experience enabled by the new luxury electric aircraft. Image instead of being squeezed into an four decade old noisemaker that smells of jet A and oil you can fly around in an new aircraft as quiet as a Tesla? Talking to your fellow travelers In a clean modern cabin during an hour long zero emissions flight that will reconnect smaller Canadian communities economically with the heart of Canadas economy.
The 19 seat short haul ES-19 is just the first generation of electric aviation. Larger electric and hybrid electric aircraft are in development at Boeing and Airbus as well as startups like Heart. A second generation of electric aircraft will be able to handle larger routes with hundreds of passengers, all at a fraction of today’s cost and with zero emissions.
All they need is a runway, a charging station and room to grow. Pickering airport will provide all three.
Reference:
Heart Aerospace | Electrifying regional air travel
Heart Unveils Electric Propulsion System for ES-19 Airliner | Air Transport News: Aviation International News (ainonline.com)
beta.ctvnews.ca
pickeringairport.org
